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Conference: Upcoming and Past
Upcoming Conferences
Register |
Place-Date |
Details |
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Sept 17-18, 2021
Rosewood Hotel Georgia
Vancouver, Canada |
The Metals Investor Forum is a two day conference featuring 25-35 companies invited by independent newsletter writers from their universe of covered companies. The speakers are independent in that their newsletters are funded by individual subscriber fees, not corporate sponsorships. Registration is free but capped at 800 for in person participation. A new feature is that the presentations will also be live-streamed - select the virtual registration option if you cannot be present in person. The conference provides a free self-serve breakfast and lunch for delegates as well as cocktails at the end of each day. The format consists of sessions kicked off by a 20 minute talk by a newsletter speaker, followed by 10 minute presentations usually by companies invited by the speaker. After the session the speakers move to the "over-flow" room where a question and answer session takes place until the start of the next speaker session. The main speaker later interviews his/her companies in a private 10 minute video session. The 10 minute public speaking slot for the company is intended to give the company an opportunity to outline its story in a manner that hooks the audience's interest. The idea is that audience members will track down the company representative at their "booth" in the exhibitor hall or after the conference if they wish to discuss the company in greater detail. The interview, at least as John Kaiser conducts it, is designed to supplement the main presentation with questions an informed audience member might have wanted to ask. The presentations and interviews are video taped and posted on YouTube. John Kaiser's session is on Friday September 17, 2021 and will feature the following KRO Favorites: Cons Woodjam Copper Corp, DLP Resources Inc, Nevada Exploration Inc, Sonoro Gold Corp and Vanstar Mining Resources Inc. |
Past Conferences
Show |
Place |
Date |
Title |
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Toronto, Canada |
March 1, 2020 |
Presentation pdf: Prophecy of Doom or Opportunity? |
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Vancouver, Canada |
January 18, 2020 |
Presentation pdf: After a lost decade will resource juniors make a comeback in the twenties? |
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Vancouver, Canada |
November 16, 2019 |
Presentation pdf: Bracing for the End Time |
XPLOR 2019 |
Montreal, Canada |
October 23, 2019 |
How can Quebec Exploration Juniors recover a Lost Audience? |
|
Vancouver, Canada |
September 7, 2019 |
Presentation pdf: The Gold Rally: a flash in the pan or the the start of a major repricing? |
|
Vancouver, Canada |
Juy 30, 2019 |
Presentation pdf: Potential Trends for a World in Flux? |
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Vancouver, Canada |
May 25, 2019 |
Presentation pdf: Is a junior resource sector bull market ever coming back? |
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Toronto, Canada |
March 3, 2019 |
Presentation pdf: Seven years of famine, what follows, feast or extinction? |
|
Toronto, Canada |
March 3, 2019 |
Presentation pdf: Seven years of famine, what follows, feast or extinction?, KMW Blog - YouTube |
|
Vancouver, Canada |
January 19, 2019 |
Presentation pdf: Are we in the middle of a turnaround?, KMW Blog - YouTube |
MIF November 2018 |
Vancouver, Canada |
November 9, 2018 |
Presentation pdf: Back to the Homeland or Stay Abroad?, KMW Blog - YouTube |
XPLOR 2018 |
Montreal, Canada |
October 17, 2018 |
Quebec Exploration: where is the money going? |
|
Vancouver, Canada |
September 28, 2018 |
Presentation pdf: Adapting to a New Reality for Resource Juniors, KMW Blog - YouTube |
Sprott 2018 |
Vancouver, Canada |
July 17, 2017 |
Stalking Elephants in Nevada, the Pilbara and ... |
MIF May 2018 |
Vancouver, Canada |
May 26, 2018 |
Can a Bull in the China Shop Vanquish the Bear? |
PDAC 2018 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 4, 2018 |
What is needed to launch an uptrend for resource juniors? |
MIF January 2018 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 20, 2018 |
Dot-Com Bubble Déjà Vu for Resource Juniors? |
AEMA 2017 |
Reno, United States |
December 6, 2017 |
Trends in Exploration Financing |
MIF November 2017 |
Vancouver, Canada |
November 10, 2017 |
What does a sudden low tide mean? |
MIF September 2017 |
Vancouver, Canada |
September 15, 2017 |
What is needed for a Discovery Mania? |
Sprott 2017 |
Vancouver, Canada |
July 28, 2017 |
What is the Size of the Prize? |
Cambridge May 2017 |
Vancouver, Canada |
May 29, 2017 |
Visualizing Outcomes |
MIF May 2017 |
Vancouver, Canada |
May 5, 2017 |
Discovery Exploration Boom |
PDAC 2017 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 5, 2017 |
Discovery Exploration is Back |
Metals Investor Forum |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 20, 2017 |
Betting on Discovery Exploration |
49 North Conference |
San Francisco, USA |
November 17, 2016 |
The Resource Sector in the New Age of Surrealism |
Metals Investor Forum |
Vancouver, Canada |
November 12, 2016 |
The Resource Sector in the New Age of Surrealism |
Mines & Money Americas |
Toronto, Canada |
September 27, 2016 |
A Crowd-Sourced Model for Valuing Exploration Projects |
Sprott Symposium |
Vancouver, Canada |
July 28, 2016 |
General Session: What is that Exploration Junior Worth and Why |
Sprott Symposium |
Vancouver, Canada |
July 28, 2016 |
Workshop: Examples of Outcome Visualization |
Zimtu 2016 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 14, 2016 |
Criticality of Supply in the Age of Trump |
PDAC 2016 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 6, 2016 |
There will never be a better Bottom-Fish Edition |
Cambridge |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 24, 2016 |
Workshop: The Best Ever Bottom-Fish Edition |
Mines and Money |
London, UK |
December 1, 2015 |
Briefing: New exploration and discovery business models |
Mines and Money |
London, UK |
November 30, 2015 |
Analyst Insight: What will be the savior of the junior sector? |
49 North 2015 |
San Francisco, USA |
November 17, 2015 |
The Outlook for the Core Resource Sector Narratives |
NMEC 2015 |
Reno, USA |
November 6, 2015 |
The New Reality for Exploration and Development Companies |
XPLOR 2015 |
Montreal, Canada |
October 7, 2015 |
The New Reality for Exploration and Development Companies |
Sprott-Stansberry Symposium |
Vancouver, Canada |
July 30, 2015 |
General Session: Security of Supply Concepts and Resource Junior Speculation |
Sprott-Stansberry Symposium |
Vancouver, Canada |
July 30, 2015 |
Workshop: Applying Security of Supply to Specific Juniors |
Cambridge Cdn Investor Conference |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 1, 2015 |
Fast and Slow Trains out of the Bear Market Trough |
Metals Investor Forum |
Vancouver, Canada |
May 30, 2015 |
Looking at Juniors from a Security of Supply Perspective |
PDAC 2015 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 2, 2015 |
The Future of the Retail Investor and the Resource Juniors |
PDAC 2015 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 1, 2015 |
The Four Core Narratives |
Cambridge Vancouver 2015 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 19, 2015 |
The Search for Ten Baggers |
AME BC Meeting 2014 |
Vancouver, Canada |
December 9, 2014 |
Confronting the Potential Extinction of a Canadian Institution |
Silver Summit 2014 |
Spokane, USA |
October 23, 2014 |
In Search of Silver Linings |
Cambridge Toronto 2014 |
Toronto, Canada |
September 25, 2014 |
Escaping the Resource Sector Swamp |
Resource Investors Forum 2014 |
St. John's, Canada |
September 23, 2014 |
The Future of the Junior Resource Sector |
University Club Investment Society |
Chicago, USA |
June 25, 2014 |
A Roadmap to Resource Sector Speculation |
Cambridge Vancouver June 2014 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 1, 2014 |
Recognizing Good and Bad Resource Sector Stories |
PDAC 2014 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 2, 2014 |
Strategies for a Selective Resource Sector Bull Market |
Cambridge California 2014 |
Indian Wells, USA |
February 7, 2014 |
Keynote: Strategies for a Selective Resource Sector Bull Market |
Cambridge Vancouver 2014 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 20, 2014 |
Workshop: Resource Junior Stories for 2014 |
Cambridge Vancouver 2014 |
Toronto, Canada |
January 19, 2014 |
Keynote: A Critical New Role for Retail Investors |
AEMQ 2013 |
Quebec City, Canada |
November 12, 2013 |
Survival Strategies for a Resource Sector Bear Market |
Silver Summit 2013 |
Spokane, USA |
October 25, 2013 |
Bear Market Navigation with Silver Juniors |
NMEC AGM 2013 |
Reno, USA |
October 15, 2013 |
What - if anything - will cause the current market to improve and when? |
Cambridge Toronto 2013 |
Toronto, Canada |
September 13, 2013 |
Keynote: What will drive Bear Market Survivors? |
Venture Crisis Founding Meeting |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 18, 2013 |
How Bad Is It? |
Cambridge Vancouver 2013 |
Vancouver, Canada |
May 27, 2013 |
Workshop: Extreme Bottom-Fishing |
Cambridge Vancouver 2013 |
Vancouver, Canada |
May 26, 2013 |
Keynote: Adapting to New Realities |
Cambridge Calgary 2013 |
Calgary, Canada |
April 6, 2013 |
Keynote: Is a resurgent America good for Gold? |
PDAC 2013 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 3, 2013 |
Newsletter Talk: McEwen Mining as Junior Resource Sector Metaphor |
Cambridge California 2013 |
Indian Wells, USA |
February 23, 2013 |
Keynote: Back to America |
Cambridge Vancouver 2013 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 21, 2013 |
Workshop: Understanding the Next Big Exploration Frontier - Back to America |
Cambridge Vancouver 2013 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 20, 2013 |
Keynote: Visualizing an Alternative to Zombieland |
Cambridge Silver Summit 2012 |
Spokane, USA |
October 26, 2012 |
Keynote: The Self-Sufficiency Rush & its Implications for the Resource Sector |
Cambridge Toronto 2012 |
Toronto, Canada |
September 28, 2012 |
Keynote: The Shift from Resource Feasibility to Discovery Exploration |
Cambridge Toronto 2012 |
Toronto, Canada |
September 27, 2012 |
Workshop: Navigating the 2012 Bottom-Fish Edition |
Cambridge Vancouver 2012 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 4, 2012 |
Keynote: The Return of the Big Anomaly |
Cambridge Vancouver 2012 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 3, 2012 |
Workshop: Searching for Bottom-Fish |
Hard Assets New York 2012 |
New York, USA |
May 15, 2012 |
Workshop: Assessing Speculative Value in Resource Stocks |
Cambridge Calgary 2012 |
Calgary, Canada |
March 31, 2012 |
Workshop: Key Kaiser Research Picks |
Cambridge Calgary 2012 |
Calgary, Canada |
March 30, 2012 |
Keynote: Understanding why Gold and Copper are no longer counter-cyclical |
PDAC 2012 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 4, 2012 |
The Twinned Destiny of Gold and Copper |
Cambridge California 2012 |
Indian Wells, USA |
February 12, 2012 |
Workshop: The Number Cruncher's Guide to Speculative Value |
Cambridge California 2012 |
Indian Wells, USA |
February 12, 2012 |
Keynote: Are Gold and Silver Equities a better Buy than Bullion? |
Cambridge Vancouver 2012 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 23, 2012 |
Workshop: Searching Kaiser Research Online for Speculative Value |
Cambridge Vancouver 2012 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 22, 2012 |
Keynote: Trends to Cheer or Fear |
Hard Assets 2011 |
San Francisco, USA |
November 19, 2011 |
Expert View: An Alternative Way of Looking at Gold & Silver |
Hard Assets 2011 |
San Francisco, USA |
November 28, 2011 |
Workshop: Should we be bottom-fishing? |
Cambridge Montreal 2011 |
Montreal, Canada |
November 19, 2011 |
Workshop: Searching for Yearend Speculative Value |
Cambridge Montreal 2011 |
Montreal, Canada |
November 18, 2011 |
Keynote: What is the $8 trillion on the Sidelines waiting for? |
New Orleans 2011 |
New Orleans, USA |
October 27, 2011 |
General Session: Security of Supply & Why Rare Earths Matter |
Silver Summit 2011 |
Spokane, USA |
October 21, 2011 |
Keynote: A Different Perspective on Gold & Silver |
Cambridge Toronto 2011 |
Toronto, Canada |
September 16, 2011 |
Keynote: A Different Perspective on Gold & Silver |
Cambridge Toronto 2011 |
Toronto, Canada |
September 15, 2011 |
Workshop: Core Picks and Strategies |
Cambridge Vancouver 2011 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 6, 2011 |
Keynote: A New Perspective on Gold & Silver |
Cambridge Vancouver 2011 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 5, 2011 |
Workshop: Critical Metal Strategies |
Cambridge Saskatoon 2011 |
Saskatoon, Canada |
May 7, 2011 |
Keynote: Is the Secular Bull Market for Raw Materials still intact? |
Cambridge Saskatoon 2011 |
Saskatoon, Canada |
May 7, 2011 |
Workshop: Top Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter Picks |
Cambridge Saskatoon 2011 |
Saskatoon, Canada |
May 6, 2011 |
Keynote: Energy Trend Implications for Critical Metals |
Cambridge Calgary 2011 |
Calgary, Canada |
April 9, 2011 |
Keynote: Are we looking at deja vu 2008? |
Cambridge Calgary 2011 |
Calgary, Canada |
April 9, 2011 |
Workshop: Top Bottom-Fish and Spec Value Hunter Picks |
Cambridge Phoenix 2011 |
Phoenix, USA |
February 19, 2011 |
Keynote: The Critical Metals Crisis |
Cambridge Phoenix 2011 |
Phoenix, USA |
February 18, 2011 |
Workshop: Bottom-Fishing Strategies |
Cambridge Vancouver 2011 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 24, 2011 |
Workshop: Are there any bottom-fish left? |
Cambridge Vancouver 2011 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 23, 2011 |
Keynote: Resource Sector Strategies for 2011 |
Hard Assets San Francisco 2010 |
San Francisco, USA |
November 21-22, 2010 |
Expert View/Workshop: What will shine in 2011? |
Cambridge Montreal 2010 |
Montreal, Canada |
November 6, 2010 |
Keynote: Resource Sector Trends |
Silver Summit 2010 |
Spokane, USA |
October 22, 2010 |
Workshop: A Review of Bottom-Fishing since the 2008 Crash |
Silver Summit 2010 |
Spokane, USA |
October 21, 2010 |
Keynote: Rare Elements |
Cambridge Toronto September 2010 |
Toronto, Canada |
Sept 26, 2010 |
Keynote: The Doom & Gloom Bubble |
Cambridge Toronto September 2010 |
Toronto, Canada |
Sept 25, 2010 |
Workshop: A Review of Bottom-Fishing since the 2008 Crash |
Cambridge Vancouver June 2010 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 7, 2010 |
Workshop: An Overview of Key Recommendations |
Cambridge Vancouver June 2010 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 6, 2010 |
Keynote: Supply Issues in the Resource Sector |
Hard Assets New York May 2010 |
New York, USA |
May 11, 2010 |
Keynote: Economic Logic and Security of Supply |
Hard Assets New York May 2010 |
New York, USA |
May 10, 2010 |
Paid Workshop: Investing in the Rare Earth Sector (Members only) |
Cambridge Saskatoon May 2010 |
Saskatoon, Canada |
May 7, 2010 |
Keynote: Economic Logic and Security of Supply |
Cambridge Saskatoon May 2010 |
Saskatoon, Canada |
May 7, 2010 |
Workshop: Understanding Rare Earth Mania |
Cambridge Calgary April 2010 |
Calgary, Canada |
April 11, 2010 |
Keynote: Economic Logic and Security of Supply |
Cambridge Calgary April 2010 |
Calgary, Canada |
April 10, 2010 |
Workshop: Understanding Rare Earth Mania |
Cambridge Phoenix February 2010 |
Phoenix, USA |
February 5, 2010 |
Workshop: Overview of the Rare Earth Sector |
Cambridge Phoenix February 2010 |
Phoenix, USA |
February 4, 2010 |
Keynote: Strategies for a Fragmenting Future |
Cambridge Vancouver January 2010 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 18, 2010 |
Workshop: The 2009 and 2010 Bottom-Fish Editions |
Cambridge Vancouver January 2010 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 18, 2010 |
Workshop: Overview of the Rare Earth Sector |
Cambridge Vancouver January 2010 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 17, 2010 |
Keynote: The New Crisis in Raw Materials Supply |
Quebec Exploration 2009 |
Quebec City, Canada |
November 24, 2009 |
Security of Supply in a Changing World |
Hard Assets November 2009 |
San Francisco, USA |
November 22, 2009 |
Security of Supply in a Changing World |
Academy & Finance November 2009 |
Geneva & Zurich, Switzerland |
November 17-18, 2009 |
Global Trends & their Implications for Gold |
Academy & Finance November 2009 |
Geneva & Zurich, Switzerland |
November 17-18, 2009 |
Valuing Pre-Production Gold Companies |
Cambridge Montreal November 2009 |
Montreal, Canada |
November 7, 2009 |
Security of Supply in a Changing World |
Cambridge Montreal November 2009 |
Montreal, Canada |
November 6, 2009 |
Navigating Rare Earth Mania |
Critical & Strategic Metals 2009 |
Washington DC, USA |
October 22, 2009 |
Rational Speculation Model: the Valuation of
Pre-Production Resource Projects |
Cambridge Toronto September 2009 |
Toronto, Canada |
September 27, 2009 |
Making Sense of the Emerging Rare Earth Mania |
Cambridge Toronto September 2009 |
Toronto, Canada |
September 26, 2009 |
Security of Supply in a Changing World |
Academy & Finance Intelligent Resource Investing |
Geneva & Zurich, Switzerland |
June 10 & 11, 2009 |
Forces Shaping the Resource Sector in the next Decade |
Cambridge Vancouver June 2009 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 7, 2009 |
Keynote: Security of Supply in a New World Order |
Cambridge Vancouver June 2009 |
Vancouver, Canada |
June 7, 2009 |
Workshop: Designing a Personal Bottom-Fish Portfolio |
Hard Assets New York May 2009 |
New York, USA |
May 12, 2009 |
Expert View: Understanding Gold Strategies |
Cambridge SaskRocks May 2009 |
Saskatoon, Canada |
May 9, 2009 |
Keynote: Looking Beyond the Slump |
Cambridge Calgary April 2009 |
Calgary, Canada |
April 5, 2009 |
Keynote: Exploiting the Bottom-Fishing Window |
Cambridge Calgary April 2009 |
Calgary, Canada |
April 4, 2009 |
Workshop: Bottom-Fishing Strategies for the Gold Sector |
PDAC Toronto March 2009 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 2, 2009 |
PDAC Diamond Technical Session: A market pricing model for publicly traded diamond exploration companies |
PDAC Toronto March 2009 |
Toronto, Canada |
March 1, 2009 |
PDAC Talk: Bottom-Fishing Heaven or Hell? |
Cambridge Phoenix February 2009 |
Phoenix, USA |
February 22, 2009 |
Keynote: Passing the Baton from Base to
Precious Metals |
Cambridge Vancouver January 2009 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 26, 2009 |
Keynote: Obvious Trends Uncertain Timelines |
Cambridge Vancouver January 2009 |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 25, 2009 |
Workshop: Tax Free Bottom-Fishing |
Hard Assets San Francisco 2008 |
San Francisco, USA |
December 1, 2008 |
Expert View: Bottom-Fishing after the Tsunami |
Hard Assets San Francisco 2008 |
San Francisco, USA |
November 30, 2008 |
Workshop: People based Bottom-Fishing |
Quebec Exploration 2008 |
Quebec City, Canada |
November 25, 2008 |
What's in store for 2009? |
EdelMetall & Rohstoff Messe 2008 |
Munich, Germany |
November 7, 2008 |
Evaluation & Analysis of Resource Juniors |
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference |
Toronto, Canada |
October 5, 2008 |
Keynote: Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Bull Market |
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference |
Toronto, Canada |
October 4, 2008 |
Workshop: Bottom-Fishing Tools |
Academy & Finance Base Metals Investing Conference |
Zurich & Geneva, Switzerland |
Sept 30 & Oct 2, 2008 |
How to invest in base metal companies? |
Resource Investor Forum 2008 |
St. John's, Newfoundland |
September 16, 2008 |
Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Bull Market |
Hard Assets Las Vegas 2008 |
Las Vegas, USA |
September 9, 2008 |
Navigating the Lull in the Commodities Bull Market |
Hard Assets Las Vegas 2008 |
Las Vegas, USA |
September 9, 2008 |
Workshop: Bottom-Fishing for Pounds & Ounces |
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference |
Calgary, Canada |
April 12, 2008 |
Keynote: Exploiting the Disconnect |
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April 13, 2008 |
Workshop: Bottom-Fishing and the Cash Vanishing Act |
The Calgary keynote speech continued the theme from the Vancouver and Phoenix speeches with an increased emphasis on the growing disconnect between the strength in commodity prices and the worsening slump for the resource juniors. Although metal prices, in particular copper, the bellweather for the business cycle, are making new highs or holding at levels well above their historic long term averages, juniors with pounds or ounces in the group are being priced as if their advanced projects are dead in the water, an outlook that reflects a scenario where metal prices retreat to levels that prevailed prior to the start of the commodity boom in 2003. This creates an extraordinary bottom-fishing opportunity hinged on the macro question of whether or not the rest of the world, in particular the BRIC nations, have sufficient momentum to survive a US recession whose severity will reflect the end of an era of debt fueled consumption that reached its climax with the securitized mortgage run from 1998-2007. If it becomes apparent that the BRICs will survive, it will signal a multi-decade period of economic growth that will eventually pull the United States out of its hole. This will translate into paradigm shift by Wall Street from viewing the raw materials supply sector as a deep cyclical to a growth sector. When this inflection happens, and there are signs that Wall Street is warming up to this idea, the junior resource sector glass will switch from half empty to half full very sharply. The result will be a sharp upwards repricing of the juniors, a doubling to tripling before any paper starts coming into the market. Early 2009 after the US election is the most probable time for this inflection to sweep up the juniors, but, because markets anticiptate the future, it could happen any time. Q1 2008 was the media headline intensive waking up to the magnitude of the credit crunch, culiminating with the peak subprime reset month. From here on it will be a less sensationalistic flow of worsening economic conditions that will force the discourse to address the path out of the mess. John Kaiser continues to hold the view that the need for infrastructure renewal in the OECD, the inevitable rise of the China Price to levels that restore two-way trade, and rising footprint consciousness will push the United States into a transformative infrastructure renewal campaign wrapped in the language of the green economy. Raw materials will be at elevated price levels for many years, and what lies ahead for the resource juniors is a race to production that will generate manic conditions. The Calgary Workshop first explained the research tools available through KBFO, summarized the argument from the keynote speech as to why this is a good bottom-fishing time, discussed the criteria for a good bottom-fish, described what types of bottom-fish one should be accumulating now, explained how cash can vanish and turn a bottom-fish into a stinky fish, and finished off with a trashing of the TSXV capital pool production machine which is anathema to bottom-fishing. |
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference |
Phoenix, USA |
February 9, 2008 |
Keynote: Missed the Bull? Now's your chance! |
The theme of the Phoenix speech was similar to that of the Vancouver speech, except that it included an explanation why the record high price for gold had failed to excite the market, which also served as part of an argument that gold was set to break through $1,000 and mount a jaw-dropping assault on $2,000. The speech also included additional material which points out that the world of real things seems to be marching forward totally oblivious to the crisis within the world of paper things. The main point was that the resource sector will turn into a bull market within an overall longer term equity and real estate bear market that will allow the juniors to bounce back with a vengeance once the market decides it has enough evidence to embrace the Asia driven super cycle as strong enough to survive a slowdown in the United States and the rest of the OECD. That this was not a consensus view at the conference was evident in the rather unfamiliar name of "Mr. Happy" people were using to refer to John Kaiser. He is more remembered as the "Mr. Unhappy" who in April 1997 loudly proclaimed that the juniors were headed for a long and difficult bear market while the majority believed that Bre-X was just a setback that would be shrugged off soon enough. |
Cambridge 2008 Resource Investment Conference |
Vancouver, Canada |
January 20, 2008 |
Keynote: Is the long awaited rapture just around the corner? |
The resource sector has been under pressure since the subprime crisis broke into the open during August 2007 as the cyclical bears fret that a looming US recession will pull the rug out from under the Asian super cycle and deliver the commodity price bust the market has been fretting about since early 2004. The title is a play on the type of rapture anticipated by fundamentalists in the wake of the apocalypse the majority of newsletter writers are predicting, and the kind of rapture I am predicting will engulf resource sector speculators during the next 18 months as the apocalypse fails to materialize and resource juniors go to the moon. The juniors are roadkill in the path of the train wreck created by an artificial economic boom created in the United States through the post dot-com Greenspan era of low interest rates and easy credit made possible through the innovation of securitized mortgage debt peddled to financial institutions and wealthy investors under the false banner of "better returns at lower risk". A reverse wealth effect is now at work as real estate prices retreat and Americans contemplate an economic future where the home construction boom is finished, manufacturing has been lured abroad by the China Price, and government debt has been piled up through homeland security and Iraq war spending. The real question is to what extent the Asian economic boom remains dependent on the strength of a US economy seemingly fated to wither away. My interpretation is that not only does the Asian boom have sufficient internal momentum to absorb through domestic spending any slackening of demand from American consumers, thus avoiding a serious implosion, but that the United States will buy itself time to keep itself busy while the China Price rises sufficiently over the next decade to justify redistribution of manufacturing around the globe. The US will dig itself out of a recession by embarking on a green economy driven campaign of transformative infrastructure renewal that will keep Americans employed while creating a legacy for future generations, and showing the way for Asia to avoid polluting itself and the planet to death as its per capita footprint expands toward that taken for granted by the OECD. If these dual forces come together, raw material supply will continue to be in deficit for another decade. While resource stocks are vulnerable to being pushed lower during the interim as these assets get dumped by investors squeezed by the lack of liquidity for their supposedly less risky financial assets, they will turn around sharply when new money, driven in part by sovereign entities, sweeps in to buy up raw material related assets in a quest to achieve long term security of supply. When this happens, amid base metal prices staying at current levels or even drifting higher, there will be a global realization that for the raw material producers this time is different, and the wall of worry that has characterized this resource boom since 2003 will vanish as mining companies get repriced as growth stocks. At the same it will become apparent that the hegemonic dominance of the United States is fading, and as the world enters a multi-decade transition period during which the US dollar loses its benchmark status for the value of all things, demand for gold ownership will skyrocket, gold will breach $1,000 in 2008, and move sharply towards $2,000. All of this translates into a fabulous opportunity to buy juniors whose markets are stressed by circumstances for which the sector bears no responsibility. |
Cambridge 2007 Resource Investment Conference |
Toronto, Canada |
October 22, 2007 |
Keynote: The Race to Production and the Revival of Exploration Plays |
Presents the idea that it will be several years before new metal supply reaches the sort of surplus conditions that could bust prices, but argues that the super cycle represented by the Rise of Asia will continue to build demand. Argues that during the next couple years we could see base metal prices spike to new records, and that the new long term equilibrium to which they settle will be substantially higher to the levels that prevailed during the bear market years of the late nineties. This is creating a race to production among juniors who have "pounds in the ground" projects. Argues that there is a risk that the subprime mortgage reset problem could unleash a real estate collapse unless the investors who hold mortgage securities take a bath and the default/foreclosure cycle is brought under control. If a US real estate collapse develops it would likely break the super cycle. Presents the idea that the dual problem of aging OECD infrastructure and global infrastructure is unleashing a green revolution whose footprint consciousness will drive a capital spending boom in the OECD that incorporates new concepts and technology involving durability, efficiency and renewable energy which will provide the jobs that keep OECD residents busy while we wait for a growing Chinese middle class to push up the China Price to levels where global trade ceases to be a one way traffic. This "green economy" renewal process will generate new raw material demand from the OECD. Argues that gold will flourish as investors seek an alternative asset class to store their wealth as we enter a transition phase during which the United States loses its dominant economic status and generates uncertainty about what the world will look like 20 years from now. In other words, gold is going up because the world is prospering and the US dollar is slowly losing its benchmark status. Finally makes the case that the volatility of base metal prices during the next few years will spark interest in exploration discovery plays whose grades are economic at prices well below current prices, and consequently will attract speculators who are indifferent to commodity price fluctuations and are focused on "how big and how valuable". |
Cambridge 2007 Resource Investment Conference |
Toronto, Canada |
October 22, 2007 |
Workshop: Is McFauld's Lake shaping up into a Great Canadian Area Play? |
Reviews what makes a Great Canadian Area Play, explains how the nickel-copper-PGM discovery by Noront at McFauld's Lake so far meets all the criteria except the critical one of being off-the-scale world class such as Voisey's Bay was, and shows how to apply the rational speculation model in a Great Canadian Area Play. |
Academy and Finance/Carrierre Conference |
Geneva, Switzerland |
October 4, 2007 |
Base Metals Investing |
Small venue conference attended by 100 plus wealth managers which featured John Kaiser and David Coffin providing overviews of the copper, nickel and zinc markets along with strategies for investing in juniors, interspersed with corporate presentations by 7 companies, with Kaiser and Coffin posing questions to the corporate speaker on issues not covered by the presentation. The slide show contains the slides that accompanied John Kaiser's presentations. |
Academy and Finance/Carrierre Conference |
Zurich, Switzerland |
October 2, 2007 |
Base Metals Investing |
Small venue conference attended by 100 plus wealth managers which featured John Kaiser and David Coffin providing overviews of the copper, nickel and zinc markets along with strategies for investing in juniors, interspersed with corporate presentations by 7 companies, with Kaiser and Coffin posing questions to the corporate speaker on issues not covered by the presentation. The slide show contains the slides that accompanied John Kaiser's presentations. |
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