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Spec Value Rating Overview Updated January 24, 2022
SV Rating: Fair Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 31, 2021: Aurion Resources Ltd is a Fair Spec Value rated Favorite at $1.30 effective December 31, 2021 based on its strategic land position within the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt of northern Finland where a 4 million ounce gold discovery in 2020 by Rupert Resources Ltd is likely to result in a district consolidation over the next two years. The CLGB has a scale similar to the Abitibi Greenstone Belt but has recorded the discovery of only 9.1 million ounces gold compared to 85 million ounces in the Abitibi largely due to relative under-exploration. Finland's geological survey, GTK, dominated exploration activity and outlined a 285,000 oz orogenic style gold deposit in 1987-1991 at the Suurikuusikko project. In 1997 Finland changed its mining code to allow exploration by foreigners; Riddarhyttan Resources AB won the public tender in 1998 and delineated the deposit with backing from Agnico-Eagle which acquired the entire project in 2005 and put it into production as the 6,000 tpd Kittila Mine in 2009. At the end of 2020 the Kittila resource stood at 4.1 million oz (30 million t @ 4.16 g/t Au) with Agnico-Eagle guiding 250,000 oz production for 2021 and a mine life until 2034. Aurion was a struggling prospect-generator-farmout junior when David Lotan took charge and refocused the junior to Finland by acquiring a major land position in 2014 from Dragon Mining Ltd. The geological hypothesis was that the 120 km long Sirkka Shear Zone was the crustal scale equivalent to the Destor-Porcupine Fault that runs through the Timmins District in Ontario and that tens of million ounces remained to be found by exploring the splays that come off this structure. This flew in the face of the fact that the refractory Kittila Mine is more than 20 km from the SSZ. A large portion of the land package straddling the western two-thirds now called Kutuvuoma was optioned to B2Gold Corp in August 2015 which spent $15 million to earn 70% and in October 2021 elected to form a 70:30 JV with Aurion rather than earn 75% by funding a BFS. Aurion kept the Risti and Launi blocks in the east for itself and conducted grassroots exploration with a limited budget until it caught a major break in February 2017 with the discovery of a field of quartz boulders with bonanza grade visible gold. The Aamurusko discovery attracted Eric Sprott and Kinross as major investors, of whom Kinross continues to maintain a stake just under 10%. Aurion has since invested $34 million exploring its Finland projects, with Risti getting the bulk of the work. However, despite 138 holes representing 24,216 m, many of them intersecting short intervals of high grade gold, the Aamurusko area has not yet yielded a zone of continuous mineralization for which a meaningful resource estimate can be calculated. In late 2021 Aurion raised nearly $17 million through a no warrant financing at $0.90, bringing its working capital back to $25 million. Aurion was set to fade into an also-ran if it were not for two major developments in the CLGB. The first look place in June 2020 when Rupert Resources Ltd announced a new gold discovery on the Pahtavaara project north of Aurion's land package it had acquired in 2016. The 1,400 tpd Pahtavaara mill sits in the middle of the claim block next to a set of partially mined veins for which Rupert estimated a resource of 4.6 million t @ 3.2 g/t Au (474,000 oz) which it hoped to redevelop to feed the mill. At the same time Rupert conducted a property wide basal till sampling program - much of the land is covered by swamp or 5-40 m thick overburden. This yielded a number of gold in till anomalies in the western part just north and east of the Kutuvuoma claim boundary. One of these, Ikkari, yielded a major discovery during early 2020 winter drilling. But before Rupert knew it had a big discovery on its hands it secured a $13 million strategic investment in February 2020 from Agnico-Eagle in the form of $0.85 units which on a fully diluted basis (196.5 million) would give Agnico-Eagle a 14.9% equity stake. Unlike the erratic mineralization at Aurion's Aamurusko discovery the Ikkari zone drilled off very quickly, yielding an initial inferred resource of 49,330,000 t @ 2.5 g/t gold (3,950,000 oz) as open pit and underground mineable ore. The resource includes no drill holes below 450 m though the zone has been intersected at a depth of 650 m. The mineralization is not-refractory like the Kattila ore and its orogenic nature allows substantial potential at depth (Kattila has a 2,000 m vertical extent). The significance of the Ikkari discovery is that it supports the hypothesis that multi-million ounce gold deposits with ore grade are associated with the Sirkka Shear Zone, and that detailed till sampling to outline potential blind zones is the way to go. Aurion plans to conduct basal till sampling on a much more detailed scale on its 100% owned Risti and Launi claim blocks during the 2022 summer season. The other major development for Aurion was that in 2021 B2Gold changed its exploration focus to the eastern part of Kutuvuoma where drilling along the structure associated with the 800 m Ikkari zone as it projects onto the JV ground yielded a new discovery called Helmi that appears similar to Ikkari. B2Gold has proposed a $10 million delineation drill program of which Aurion will contribute $3 million. That still leaves Aurion with plenty of money to explore its own ground while being able to pay its share if B2Gold expands its Helmi program, and participate in 2023 without having to go to market to raise more capital. With only 126.9 million fully diluted, Aurion has upside potential of $2.00-$2.50 if B2Gold delivers a billion dollar prize at Hemli, $7-$8 if Aurion finds an Ikkari clone on its 100% owned ground that can be drilled off quickly. The real game, however, is about who will control the Sirkka Shear Zone district. Agnico-Eagle already controls the Kattila area north of the SSZ and has a nearly 15% equity stake in Rupert whose land position has ample room for multiple Ikkari scale discoveries. B2Gold is a mid-tier producer which controls 70% of the second largest land position in the area, with Aurion as a well funded 30% partner. Aurion, which perhaps spent far too much time and money chasing the source of the flashy high grade quartz boulders, has a green light for intensive sampling of the entire 100% land package. Rupert is sitting with a now pointless 1,400 tpd mill far too small for the Ikkari deposit. It is itself a potential takeover target for Agnico-Eagle which has not yet exercised its right to appoint 2 people to Rupert's board, and technically is below the 10% insider threshold on an issued basis. Aurion's Aamurusko Zone could end up becoming mill feed for the Pahtavaara mill, so perhaps a friendly merger with Aurion is a possibility. B2Gold is a mid-tier gold producer which would likely prefer that it absorb Aurion rather than the neighbor Rupert for whom it might also have eyes if Helmi does turn into another Ikkari scale discovery. Aurion Resources Ltd is a Favorite because it sits in the middle of this game as the prize everybody except Agnico-Eagle needs. And then there is Kinross with just under 10% of Aurion, probably busy digesting the Great Bear acquisition unless Barrick does snatch it away. The largest shareholder is David Lotan with 9.7 million shares and he has the smarts to play this to the hilt without being overcome by ego. And he now has Matti Talikka as the new CEO after Mike Basha stepped down in early 2021 due to a family tragedy. Between 2007-2015 he was the exploration general manager for Dragon Mining in charge of Sweden and Finland so he knows how things work in Finland. All this is unfolding against a possible gold bull market whose impact on gold producer prices would provide cover for bold acquisitions.
Recommendation History
Edition
Date
Price
Recommendation
Gain
BF2012
7/13/2012
$0.16
New BF LP Buy $0.10-$0.19
-16%
BF2012
12/31/2013
$0.05
BF Technical Closeout 100%
-76%
SVF2020
4/7/2020
$0.74
Fair Spec Value Favorite
0%
SVF2020
12/31/2020
$1.12
Fair Spec Value Favorite Confirmed
51%
SVF2021
12/31/2020
$1.12
Fair Spec Value Favorite
0%
SVF2021
12/31/2021
$1.30
SV Technical Closeout 100%
16%
SVF2022
12/31/2021
$1.30
Fair Spec Value Favorite
0%
Ranking within Company's Price Range based Group
All TSX-TSXV KRO as of Nov 25, 2022
Group Median
Company
Percentile
Score
Price Range:
$0.30-$0.49
Issued:
92,822,109
117,771,345
43.1%
67.4%
Price Group Total:
109
Working Cap:
$3,094,416
$19,205,810
91.7%
TSXV KRO as of Nov 25, 2022
Group Median
Company
Percentile
Score
Price Range:
$0.30-$0.49
Issued:
76,624,621
117,771,345
32.6%
64.6%
Price Group Total:
89
Working Cap:
$2,156,671
$19,205,810
96.6%
Group figures exclude delisted and suspended companies. The higher the company percentile the better, based on the assumptions that the lowest issued shares and highest working capital are best. The score is the average of the percentiles. A percentile is that percentage of a group that a member ranks higher than. Note that issued and WC reflect latest financials.
Ranking Color Code:
Lower than 25%
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
Higher than 75%
Charts & Financing Activity
Most recent 43-101 resource estimate Prior resource estimate PEA PFS FS/BFS/DFS
Private Placement Key
less than $500,000
$1,000,000 - $2,000,000
$5,000,000 - $10,000,000
$20,000,000 - $50,000,000
$500,000 - $1,000,000
$2,000,000 - $5,000,000
$10,000,000 - $20,000,000
over $50,000,000
Private placement financing dates and value ranges are based on transactions reported by the TSXV Monthly Review.
Past Insiders and Reported Shareholders - Current Ownership Status unknown - positions may be pre-rollback
Related Party
Occupation
Related Since
Insider Ended
Director Ended
Capacity
Ownership
Henry J. Awmack
Engineer
2/1/2010
6/25/2015
6/25/2015
Director
84,000
Batell Investments Ltd
Broker
11/6/2009
Placee
25,000
Ken Bates
4/4/2012
Placee
100,000
Rann Cannon
Broker
6/10/2010
Placee
60,000
Richard M. Cohen
Broker
11/10/2009
Placee
250,000
Christopher Dabbs
Broker
4/4/2012
Placee
75,000
Tracy Dabbs
Broker
11/10/2009
Placee
250,000
David B. Elliott
Broker
11/6/2009
Placee
150,000
Gammon Gold Inc
Public Company
3/29/2011
Placee
357,143
Richard A. Graham
Journalist
4/6/2006
7/30/2019
7/30/2019
Director
131,525
Bernhard Hansel
Broker
6/10/2010
Placee
25,000
Christopher J. Hunt
Broker
4/4/2012
Placee
37,000
Laurie Hunt
Broker
4/4/2012
Placee
38,000
Robert Klassen
Broker
11/10/2009
Placee
250,000
Olav Langelaar
Broker
11/10/2009
Placee
100,000
Sandra Lee
Administrator
6/26/2008
6/24/2009
6/24/2009
Director
25,000
Lotan Holdings Inc
Private Company
6/30/2016
Insider
7,090,800
Catherine McLeod-Seltzer
Investor
6/10/2010
Placee
100,000
Brad J. Mercer
Geologist
10/9/2009
6/12/2014
6/12/2014
Director
140,000
K. Peter Miller
6/26/2008
6/24/2009
6/24/2009
Director
25,000
Narinder Nagra
5/15/2008
2/1/2010
2/1/2010
Director
100,000
James Nagy
Broker
6/10/2010
Placee
100,000
Rule Family Trust
Family Trust
12/14/2009
Insider
1,083,355
Robert Sali
Broker
11/10/2009
Placee
600,000
Mark Santarossa
Accountant
10/10/2020
7/27/2021
VP Corp Dev
0
Thomas W. Seltzer
Broker
6/10/2010
Placee
100,000
David Shepherd
Broker
11/6/2009
Placee
50,000
Inderjit Shoker
Broker
11/10/2009
Placee
50,000
Miles F. Thompson
Geologist
2/16/2016
10/10/2020
Advisory Board
0
Andrew Williams
Broker
11/6/2009
Placee
150,000
Share positions of current insiders based on last AGM circular, ownership % based on current Issued. Share positions of past insiders and shareholders have not been adjusted for rollbacks or splits.
Active Index Memberships
Membership Start Date:
April 7, 2020
Start Price:
$0.74
KRO Favorites 2020: Features companies with Bottom-Fish, Fair or Good Spec value ratings that were designated Favorites in 2020, effective December 31, 2019.
Membership Start Date:
December 31, 2020
Start Price:
$1.12
KRO Favorites 2021: Features companies with Bottom-Fish, Fair or Good Spec value ratings that are designated 2021 Favorites, effective December 31, 2020.
Membership Start Date:
December 31, 2021
Start Price:
$1.30
KRO Favorites 2022: Features companies designated 2022 KRO Favorites, based on closing price December 31, 2021.
A Spec Value Hunter table allows speculators to identify which projects offer poor, fair or good speculative value according to the rational speculation model. The speculative value depends on the project stage, the project's implied value as calculated by the company's fully diluted, stock price and net project interest, and the dream target deemed appropriate for the project. A dream target is what a project would be worth in discounted cash flow terms once in production.
Poor Speculative Value -
Fair Speculative Value -
Good Speculative Value -
Note: narrow arrows indicate IPV is outside the fair value channel but within 25% of the fair value limits
Color Key for Target Outcome Achievability Ranges in millions ranked from most to least achievable
below $25
Should be Private: Artisanal, Placer, Mom & Pop Shop
$25-$50
Tiny Scale: underground mine or quarry - not worth the bother
$50-$100
Small Scale: junior needs to self-develop
$100-$250
Buyout Target: by Lower Tier Producers
$250-$500
Buyout Target: by Mid-Tier Producers
$500-$1,000
Ideal Target for Junior: Buckhorn, Sleeper
$1,000-$2,000
Almost World Class: Ekati, Red Chris, Brucejack, Juanicipio, Stibnite
$2,000-$5,000
World Class: Eskay Creek, Hemlo, Hermosa-Taylor, Oyu Tolgoi, LaRonde, McArthur
$5,000-$10,000
Giants: Escondida, Sullivan, Carlin Trend, Kidd Creek, Orapa, Kamoa-Kakula
above $10,000
Off the Scale District: Wits 1.0, Araxa, Sudbury Basin, Bayan Obo
The target outcome range required for the current implied project value to represent fair speculative value is based on the upper and lower certainty limits associated with the project stage. The color coding is based on the target outcome using the mid-point of the certainty range.
Net Interest: 30% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: May 2014 agreement to acquire 100% in the Kutuvuoma and Silasselka exploration projects from Dragon Mining for six million common shares and one million euros in exploration spending on the projects within three years. Aug 21, 2015 agreement whereby B2Gold must complete $5 million in exploration expenditures, pay Aurion $50,000 cash and issue 550,000 B2Gold shares over 4 years to earn a 51% interest. B2Gold can earn an additional 19% interest by spending a further $10 million over 2 years. B2Gold can earn an additional 5% interest for a total of 75% interest by completing a bankable feasibility study. This agreement applies to a 25,000 ha area that includes the Kutuvumoa and Silasseka projects.On Aug 13, 2019 B2Gold vested for 51% and on Oct 15, 2021 B2Gold vested for 70% by spending another $10 million and elected to form a 70:30 JV with Aurion rather than fund a bkanable feasibility study to earn an extra 5%.
Target Metals: Gold
Model: Orogenic Vein
Stage: 3-Discovery Delineation
Notes on Kutuvuoma Project
The Kutuvuoma project area is located 35 kilometres southeast of the 4.8-million-ounce Kittila gold mine owned by Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. Kutuvuoma is a high-grade, shear-zone-hosted gold deposit that was discovered in the early 1990s by Outokumpu Oy. It conducted geochemical till sampling and ground magnetic and electromagnetic (EM) geophysical surveys and completed a total of 29 reverse circulation (1,112 metres) and 18 diamond (2,313 metres) drill holes over an approximately 150-metre horizontal strike length and a maximum of 150 metres vertical depth. The Kutuvuoma property covers around six km of strike length over a prospective geological sequence with mineralized structures and has been only partially explored with geochemical and geophysical surveys extending the strike distance of around 1.5 km. The previous work has identified a number of gold anomalies that remain untested.
Net Interest: 30% TC Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement Nov 8, 2021 whereby Kinross can earn70% by paying CAD $100,000 and spending USD $5 million over 5 years with a minimum $1 million commitment within 2 years. If Aurion dilutes to 10% its working interest converts to a 2% NSR.
Most recent 43-101 resource estimate 
Prior resource estimate 
PEA 
PFS 
FS/BFS/DFS
Flagship Play
Secondary Plays
Other Plays
