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SV Rating: Fair Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 30, 2022
Corporate Change History
#Old for New
Last Price
Prior Name
Subsequent Name
Details
Oct 11, 2006
Name Change
1:1
$0.40
Canalaska Ventures (CVV-V)
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-V)
Nov 8, 2010
Reverse Split
10:1
$0.14
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-T)
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-T)
Jun 21, 2011
New Exchange Listing
1:1
$0.68
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-V)
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-T)
Dec 30, 2013
New Exchange Listing
1:1
$0.11
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-T)
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-V)
Recommendation History
Edition
Date
Price
Recommendation
Gain
BF1997
12/23/1996
$0.67
New BF MP Buy $0.50-$0.75
0%
BF1997
12/1/1997
$0.29
BF Cycle Closeout Sell 100%
-61%
BF1998
12/1/1997
$0.29
New BF MP Buy $0.30-$0.49
0%
BF1998
11/18/1998
$0.67
BF Cycle Closeout Sell 100%
-63%
BF2016
2/19/2016
$0.17
New BF Buy $0.10-$0.19
-13%
BF2016
12/13/2018
$0.30
BF Technical Closeout 100%
82%
SVF2023
12/30/2022
$0.39
Fair Spec Value Favorite
0%
Ranking within Company's Price Range based Group
All TSX-TSXV KRO as of Oct 16, 2023
Group Median
Company
Percentile
Score
Price Range:
$0.30-$0.49
Issued:
90,047,565
125,071,000
38.6%
57.9%
Price Group Total:
101
Working Cap:
$2,157,173
$10,085,000
77.2%
TSXV KRO as of Oct 16, 2023
Group Median
Company
Percentile
Score
Price Range:
$0.30-$0.49
Issued:
73,020,210
125,071,000
26.6%
55.7%
Price Group Total:
79
Working Cap:
$1,744,355
$10,085,000
84.8%
Group figures exclude delisted and suspended companies. The higher the company percentile the better, based on the assumptions that the lowest issued shares and highest working capital are best. The score is the average of the percentiles. A percentile is that percentage of a group that a member ranks higher than. Note that issued and WC reflect latest financials.
Ranking Color Code:
Lower than 25%
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
Higher than 75%
Charts & Financing Activity
Most recent 43-101 resource estimate Prior resource estimate PEA PFS FS/BFS/DFS
Private Placement Key
less than $500,000
$1,000,000 - $2,000,000
$5,000,000 - $10,000,000
$20,000,000 - $50,000,000
$500,000 - $1,000,000
$2,000,000 - $5,000,000
$10,000,000 - $20,000,000
over $50,000,000
Private placement financing dates and value ranges are based on transactions reported by the TSXV Monthly Review.
Past Insiders and Reported Shareholders - Current Ownership Status unknown - positions may be pre-rollback
Related Party
Occupation
Related Since
Insider Ended
Director Ended
Capacity
Ownership
Bernard Barlin
Deceased
1/1/1989
9/23/2009
9/23/2009
Director
0
Harry G. Barr
Businessperson
1/1/1985
9/19/2007
9/19/2007
Director
256,117
Colin Bird
Engineer
1/1/1996
3/25/2008
3/25/2008
Director
112,500
Joseph Bowes
Accountant
10/19/2009
9/24/2015
CFO
0
John Clemens
Broker
12/30/2010
Placee
20,000
Richard M. Cohen
Broker
8/12/2009
Placee
75,000
Victor Fern
Businessperson
3/25/2008
4/5/2021
4/5/2021
Director
130,000
Emil Fung
9/19/2007
9/10/2012
9/10/2012
Director
20,864
Olav Langelaar
Broker
8/12/2009
Placee
40,000
Hubert R. Marleau
Businessperson
1/1/1996
6/24/2013
6/24/2013
Director
0
Ravensden Asset Management Inc.
Fund Manager
9/23/2009
Insider
1,132,352
Michael E. Riley
Accountant
6/2/2011
9/26/2013
9/27/2013
Director
0
Damian Towns
10/19/2009
Insider
0
Kathleen K. Townsend
Lawyer
1/7/2014
9/1/2021
9/1/2021
Director
425,000
Share positions of current insiders based on last AGM circular, ownership % based on current Issued. Share positions of past insiders and shareholders have not been adjusted for rollbacks or splits.
Active Index Memberships
Membership Start Date:
December 30, 2022
Start Price:
$0.39
KRO Favorites 2023: Features companies designated 2023 KRO Favorites, based on closing price December 30, 2022.
A Spec Value Hunter table allows speculators to identify which projects offer poor, fair or good speculative value according to the rational speculation model. The speculative value depends on the project stage, the project's implied value as calculated by the company's fully diluted, stock price and net project interest, and the dream target deemed appropriate for the project. A dream target is what a project would be worth in discounted cash flow terms once in production.
Poor Speculative Value -
Fair Speculative Value -
Good Speculative Value -
Note: narrow arrows indicate IPV is outside the fair value channel but within 25% of the fair value limits
Color Key for Target Outcome Achievability Ranges in millions ranked from most to least achievable
below $25
Should be Private: Artisanal, Placer, Mom & Pop Shop
$25-$50
Tiny Scale: underground mine or quarry - not worth the bother
$50-$100
Small Scale: junior needs to self-develop
$100-$250
Buyout Target: by Lower Tier Producers
$250-$500
Buyout Target: by Mid-Tier Producers
$500-$1,000
Ideal Target for Junior: Buckhorn, Sleeper
$1,000-$2,000
Almost World Class: Ekati, Red Chris, Brucejack, Juanicipio, Stibnite
$2,000-$5,000
World Class: Eskay Creek, Hemlo, Hermosa-Taylor, Oyu Tolgoi, LaRonde, McArthur
$5,000-$10,000
Giants: Escondida, Sullivan, Carlin Trend, Kidd Creek, Orapa, Kamoa-Kakula
above $10,000
Off the Scale District: Wits 1.0, Araxa, Sudbury Basin, Bayan Obo
The target outcome range required for the current implied project value to represent fair speculative value is based on the upper and lower certainty limits associated with the project stage. The color coding is based on the target outcome using the mid-point of the certainty range.
Net Interest: 77.1% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 8.25%
Ownership Terms: CanAlaska entered into an option agreement with Mitsubishi Development Pty Ltd. (MDP) where MDP may acquire a 50% ownership interest in the West McArthur Project by expending a minimum Cdn$11.0 million in cash and exploration payments to CanAlaska over a 3½ -year period. Upon MDP fulfilling its exploration commitments under the Option Agreement, the parties will enter into a 50/50 joint venture. On Jan 21, 2016 Canalaska acquired Mitsubishi's 50% for $600,000 and a 1% NSR. Feb 24, 2016 deal optioning 60% to Cameco for $725,000 cash upfront plus $5 million exploration over 3 years to earn 30%, then pay $500,000 plus another $6,275,000 exploration over 3 years to earn 60%. $1 million is required in the first year, and 2 deep holes must be drilled in the Grid 1 area within 2 years. The province of Saskatchewan collects a 7.25% royalty on uranium production value less transportation costs of yellowcake to market. On Oct 19, 2018 Cameco after paying $725,000 and spending $5 million gave notice of vesting for 30% but declined to increase to 60%. Canalaska as operator increased to 77.12% due to Cameco's non-contribution. Due to decision by Cameco not to participate in a $5 million program in 2022 Canalaska's interest will increase to about 80%.
Visualized Outcome: Canalaska - West McArthur as McArthur River Clone
Canalaska Uranium Ltd in 2016 optioned its West McArthur project in the Athabasca Basin to Cameco which can earn 60% by spending CAD $11,275,000 over 6 years. The project was held 50:50 with Mitsubishi which spent nearly $17 million on the project, mostly in the Grid 1 area in the northwest where Cameco must drill two deep holes within two years. Cameco's immediate focus, however, is the Grid 5 area into which the C10 conductor that hosts its Fox Lake discovery projects. Fox Lake at 386,700 tonnes of 7.99% U3O8 is promising and Cameco has indicated it regards this discovery as a top tier development candidate. But the discovery, less than 4 km from the Canalaska boundary, needs more high grade tonnage and Cameco has drilled a hole close to the boundary about which it has said nothing. Canalaska itself drilled a few holes on the inferred C10 conductor without interesecting uranium though it encounter evidence of a major hydrothermal system. The hole closest to the boundary intersected what appears to be a highly altered thrust block of sandstone. Cameco drilled a single hole in April and results are pending. Because Cameco uses a downhole gammaprobe to generate reliable eU3O8 assays on site, it is obvious that mineralization signaling a discovery and meriting prompt disclosure was not hit. However, both Canalaska and Cameco are acting solely on the basis of geophysics; the unconformity is too deep to leave any alteration trace at surface, and indirect geochemical sampling methods such as developed by Uravan and successfully applied to the Centennial, Cigar Lake and McArthur River deposits has not been done. What we are waiting to hear from Cameco and Canalaska is whether this hole has unveiled a geological context which indicates that a deposit is nearby, and that only 4-6 holes are needed to vector in on the location. At the current exploration stage West McArthur is still just a possibility, and I have created this OV to demonstrate what a McArthur River scale discovery would look like and be worth. The deposit and cost assumptions were borrowed from Nov 2, 2012 technical report Cameco published updating the economics for the remaining 1,062,200 tonnes of 16.46% U3O8 ore left after 13 years of producing 758,700 tonnes at 13.5% at McArthur River. Cameco earned a 30% interest in 2018 after paying $725,000 and spending $5 million but declined to increase to 60%. Since then Canlaska has solely funded further work and diluted Cameco to 22.88% leaving Canlaska with 77.12%. In 2022 Canalaska undertook a $5 million program which will boost its interest to about 80%. On July 15, 2022 Canalaska reported a 6.3 m mineralized interval at 906.3 m hole depth within basement rock on a new conductor target southwest of the 42 Zone where work had concentrated. So far it looks like an "ingress" type zone where mineralizing fluids travel down a structure rather than up. This OV was based on the "egress" type that form at the unconformity as a replacement body. A second OV based on the fesaibility study costs of NexGen's ingress style Arrow deposit was created.
Source Note: A word of caution regarding this first attempt at an OV for a high grade underground uranium mine. The costs used in past PEAs by Hathor and Fission vary widely from the costs used by Cameco for Cigar Lake and McArthur River. Everything gets reported in $/recovered lb with no reconciliation into OpEx per tonne. For an OV to be effective one needs to know the costs associated with mining and processing a tonne of ore at different grades. As I obtain a better understanding of a deep underground high grade uranium mine with potential water flow problems I will be fine-tuning the cost side of the OV. At this stage the prupose of this OV is to illustrate what speculators should be hoping to see a junior deliver from its Athabasca Basin project.
Visualized Outcome Summary: Canalaska - West McArthur as McArthur River Clone
Economic Outcome (USD): Revenue Model at OV designated Metal Prices
Annual Average
Life of Mine (LOM)
LOM Stats
Recoverable Revenue:
$1,124,263,477
$16,358,803,633
$15,401/t ore Recoverable Value:
Smelter/Transport Costs:
($6,462,994)
($94,040,994)
0.6% of Recoverable Revenue
Gross Payable Revenue:
$1,117,800,483
$16,264,762,639
99.4% of Recoverable Revenue
Royalties:
($92,218,540)
($1,341,842,918)
8.3% of Gross Payable Revenue
Net Payable Revenue:
$1,025,581,943
$14,922,919,721
91.2% of Recoverable Revenue
Mining Cost:
($194,770,602)
($2,834,045,659)
46% of OpEx - $2,668.09/t ore
Processing Cost:
($169,718,683)
($2,469,523,087)
40% of OpEx - $2,324.91/t ore
Other Cost:
($24,729,362)
($359,829,148)
6% of OpEx - $338.76/t ore
Sustaining Cost:
($34,366,792)
($515,501,878)
8% of OpEx - $485.32/t ore
Total Operating Cost:
($424,881,032)
($6,197,751,551)
42% of Net Payable Revenue - OpEx - $5,834.83/t ore
Pre-Tax Cash Flow:
$600,700,911
$8,725,168,171
58% of Net Payable Revenue - $8,214.24/t ore
Taxes:
($209,780,765)
($3,045,968,378)
35% of Pre-Tax Cash Flow - $2,867.60/t ore
After-Tax Cash Flow:
$390,920,146
$5,679,199,793
38% of Net Payable Revenue - $5,346.64/t ore
Note: Concentrate transport costs, smelter treatment costs and retention are subtracted from recoverable revenue to get gross payable revenue to which the uncapped royalty rate for the project is applied. The annual average of LOM sustaining cost is expensed as an annual operating cost. Annual average figures reflect full production years.
Economic Outcome (USD): Royalty Model for 1% NSR at OV designated Metal Prices
Mine Life:
15 years
Startup
NPV 5%
NPV 10%
NPV 15%
Annual Avg NSR:
$10,255,819
Now
$99,271,739
$69,912,215
$51,655,011
LOM NSR:
$149,229,197
2022
$104,235,326
$76,903,437
$59,403,262
Economic Outcome - Discount Rate: 10.5% - CAD AT NPV: $1.7 billion - Fair Speculative Value
Gross Rock Value (USD/t):
$15,604
Recoverable Rock Value:
$15,401
Payable Rock Value:
$15,312
LOM Net Payable Revenue (USD):
$14,922,919,721
LOM PT Cash Flow (USD):
$8,725,168,171
LOM AT Cash Flow (USD):
$5,679,199,793
USD Pre-Tax NPV:
$2,628,776,101
Pre-Tax IRR:
40.5%
Pre-Tax Payback:
2.5
USD After-Tax NPV:
$1,245,471,897
After-Tax IRR:
25.6%
After-Tax Payback:
3.8
CAD Fair Spec Value Low:
$42,280,657
CAD Fair Spec Value High:
$84,561,314
CAD Implied Project Value:
$79,641,183
Price Target if Visualized Outcome delivered by Expl-Dev Cycle without dilution: CAD $7.75
Fair Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $0.19 - $0.39
MSV (Market Cycle S Curve): Market Speculative Value represents the typical market pricing pattern of a new discovery as it moves through its exploration-development cycle. The irrational pricing behavior of the yellow channel contrasts with the fair speculative value of the blue channel as defined by the rational speculation model because during the pre-economic study stages there is great uncertainty about how big the discovery will turn out.
Fair Speculative Value Ladder
USD OV NPV
CAD OV NPV
Exch Rate
Diluted
Net Interest
$1,245,471,897
$1,691,226,289
1.3579
168,272,000
77.12%
Project Stage
Uncertainty Range
CAD FSV Range
CAD FSV per Share Range
CAD MSV per Share Range
Grassroots
0.5% - 1.0%
$8,456,131 - $16,912,263
$0.04 - $0.08
$0.08 - $0.19
Target Drilling
1.0% - 2.5%
$16,912,263 - $42,280,657
$0.08 - $0.19
$0.19 - $0.39
Discovery Delineation
2.5% - 5.0%
$42,280,657 - $84,561,314
$0.19 - $0.39
$0.39 - $5.81
Infill & Metallurgy
5% - 10%
$84,561,314 - $169,122,629
$0.39 - $0.78
$3.88 - $7.75
PEA
10% - 25%
$169,122,629 - $422,806,572
$0.78 - $1.94
$1.94 - $5.81
Prefeasibility
25% - 50%
$422,806,572 - $845,613,144
$1.94 - $3.88
$1.94 - $3.88
Permitting & Feasibility
50% - 75%
$845,613,144 - $1,268,419,717
$3.88 - $5.81
$1.94 - $3.88
Construction
75% - 100%
$1,268,419,717 - $1,691,226,289
$5.81 - $7.75
$3.88 - $5.81
Production
100%
$1,691,226,289
$7.75
$7.75 - $9.69
Market Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $0.39 - $5.81
Warning: while the market spec value (S-Curve) and fair spec value channels presented in project value terms track the evolving expected ultimate outcome value, when presented in stock price terms the expected stock prices are subject to dilution through future equity financings or project interest farmouts.
Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
Metal 1
Metal 2
Metal 3
Metal 4
Uranium
Spot:
$81.50 /lb U3O8
OV Assigned:
$43.00 /lb U3O8
Pessimistic:
$25.00 /lb U3O8
Optimistic:
$50.00 /lb U3O8
Fantasy:
$100.00 /lb U3O8
Note: for Metal 1 pessimistic, optimistic and fantasy price scenarios, OV assigned prices are used for Metals 2-4
Economic Outcomes with Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
USD PT NPV
USD PT IRR
USD AT NPV
USD AT IRR
AT Payback yrs
Spot:
$8,724,571,648
103.5%
$4,781,033,314
62.9%
1.6
OV Assigned:
$2,628,776,101
40.5%
$1,245,471,897
25.6%
3.8
Pessimistic:
($221,206,233)
7.4%
($405,662,148)
4.5%
10.5
Optimistic:
$3,737,102,564
52.1%
$1,888,301,246
32.6%
3.0
Fantasy:
$11,653,720,157
133.6%
$6,479,939,450
80.4%
1.2
Fair Speculative Value for Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
Stage: Discovery Delineation - 2.5% - 5.0%
CAD AT NPV
CAD Target Price
CAD FSV Range
CAD FSV per Share Range
CAD MSV per Share Range
Spot:
$6,492,165,137
$29.75
$162,304,128 - $324,608,257
$0.74 - $1.49
$1.49 - $22.32
OV Assigned:
$1,691,226,289
$7.75
$42,280,657 - $84,561,314
$0.19 - $0.39
$0.39 - $5.81
Pessimistic:
($550,848,631)
($2.52)
($13,771,216) - ($27,542,432)
($0.06) - ($0.13)
($0.13) - ($1.89)
Optimistic:
$2,564,124,261
$11.75
$64,103,107 - $128,206,213
$0.29 - $0.59
$0.59 - $8.81
Fantasy:
$8,799,109,779
$40.33
$219,977,744 - $439,955,489
$1.01 - $2.02
$2.02 - $30.25
Disclaimer: A visualized outcome is one of many possible outcomes for an exploration project as it moves through the 9 stages of the exploration-development cycle from grassroots to a producing mine with failure as an outcome at any point along the way. The range of possible outcomes for the physical nature of a deposit shrinks after delivery of an initial 43-101 resource estimate. While the nature of the deposit constrains the range of mining scenarios, the cost assumptions will vary as the project moves through the feasibility demonstration stages of the cycle, which affects the economic value of the final outcome. This economic value will also vary according to the prices of the metals targeted for extraction which may change during the years it takes for a project to become a mine. An outcome visualization is thus a compilation of best guess assumptions for the key variables that drive the discounted cash flow model, the basis for assigning an economic value to a mine. An OV is not intended as a prediction, but rather as a framework that allows the incorporation of new information generated by the exploration-development cycle for the project into a valuation model on an ongoing, dynamic basis.
.
Outcome Visualization Project as of Dec 5, 2023: Canalaska: West McArthur as Arrow Clone
Visualized Outcome: Canalaska: West McArthur as Arrow Clone
Canalaska Uranium Ltd announced a basement hosted intersection on July 15, 2022 while testing a conductor southwest of the 42 Zone which has sandstone hosted mineralization related to the structure that hosts the Fox Lake zone owned by Cameco and Orano. The Fox Lake deposits are about 400,000 tonnes of 7.99% U3O8. An OV created for West McArthur in 2016 visualized a McArthur River clone and used costs provided by Cameco in a 2012 43-101 report. McArthur River is mined at only 200 tpd because it is about 1 million tonnes of 16% and located at the unconformity which creates difficult mining conditions that entail very high costs. While it is possible the unconformity above the hole #67 interval may host a McArthur egress-style zone, for the sake of this OV a deposit similar to NexGen's basement hosted Arrow deposit (P+P 4,575,0000 @ 2.37% U3O8) but higher grade was visualized as an outcome and underground mined at 1,300 tpd using the costs presented in NexGen's February 2021 feasibility study.
Visualized Outcome Summary: Canalaska: West McArthur as Arrow Clone
Economic Outcome (USD): Revenue Model at OV designated Metal Prices
Annual Average
Life of Mine (LOM)
LOM Stats
Recoverable Revenue:
$2,078,108,664
$21,897,878,438
$4,380/t ore Recoverable Value:
Smelter/Transport Costs:
$0
$0
0.0% of Recoverable Revenue
Gross Payable Revenue:
$2,078,108,664
$21,897,878,438
100.0% of Recoverable Revenue
Royalties:
($171,443,965)
($1,806,574,971)
8.3% of Gross Payable Revenue
Net Payable Revenue:
$1,906,664,699
$20,091,303,466
91.8% of Recoverable Revenue
Mining Cost:
($53,618,500)
($565,000,000)
32% of OpEx - $113.00/t ore
Processing Cost:
($61,685,000)
($650,000,000)
37% of OpEx - $130.00/t ore
Other Cost:
($22,301,500)
($235,000,000)
13% of OpEx - $47.00/t ore
Sustaining Cost:
($29,454,545)
($324,000,000)
18% of OpEx - $64.80/t ore
Total Operating Cost:
($167,059,545)
($1,774,000,000)
9% of Net Payable Revenue - OpEx - $354.80/t ore
Pre-Tax Cash Flow:
$1,739,605,154
$18,317,303,466
91% of Net Payable Revenue - $3,663.46/t ore
Taxes:
($691,772,614)
($7,283,767,456)
40% of Pre-Tax Cash Flow - $1,456.75/t ore
After-Tax Cash Flow:
$1,047,832,539
$11,033,536,011
55% of Net Payable Revenue - $2,206.71/t ore
Note: Concentrate transport costs, smelter treatment costs and retention are subtracted from recoverable revenue to get gross payable revenue to which the uncapped royalty rate for the project is applied. The annual average of LOM sustaining cost is expensed as an annual operating cost. Annual average figures reflect full production years.
Economic Outcome (USD): Royalty Model for 1% NSR at OV designated Metal Prices
Mine Life:
11 years
Startup
NPV 5%
NPV 10%
NPV 15%
Annual Avg NSR:
$19,066,647
Now
$145,922,427
$109,770,591
$85,124,799
LOM NSR:
$200,913,035
2030
$103,704,344
$56,329,670
$32,001,565
Economic Outcome - Discount Rate: 8.0% - CAD AT NPV: $7.9 billion - Good Speculative Value
Gross Rock Value (USD/t):
$4,492
Recoverable Rock Value:
$4,380
Payable Rock Value:
$4,380
LOM Net Payable Revenue (USD):
$20,091,303,466
LOM PT Cash Flow (USD):
$18,317,303,466
LOM AT Cash Flow (USD):
$11,033,536,011
USD Pre-Tax NPV:
$10,271,297,541
Pre-Tax IRR:
178.4%
Pre-Tax Payback:
0.6
USD After-Tax NPV:
$5,827,927,729
After-Tax IRR:
107.4%
After-Tax Payback:
0.9
CAD Fair Spec Value Low:
$197,843,577
CAD Fair Spec Value High:
$395,687,153
CAD Implied Project Value:
$79,641,183
Price Target if Visualized Outcome delivered by Expl-Dev Cycle without dilution: CAD $36.27
Fair Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $0.91 - $1.81
MSV (Market Cycle S Curve): Market Speculative Value represents the typical market pricing pattern of a new discovery as it moves through its exploration-development cycle. The irrational pricing behavior of the yellow channel contrasts with the fair speculative value of the blue channel as defined by the rational speculation model because during the pre-economic study stages there is great uncertainty about how big the discovery will turn out.
Fair Speculative Value Ladder
USD OV NPV
CAD OV NPV
Exch Rate
Diluted
Net Interest
$5,827,927,729
$7,913,743,064
1.3579
168,272,000
77.12%
Project Stage
Uncertainty Range
CAD FSV Range
CAD FSV per Share Range
CAD MSV per Share Range
Grassroots
0.5% - 1.0%
$39,568,715 - $79,137,431
$0.18 - $0.36
$0.36 - $0.91
Target Drilling
1.0% - 2.5%
$79,137,431 - $197,843,577
$0.36 - $0.91
$0.91 - $1.81
Discovery Delineation
2.5% - 5.0%
$197,843,577 - $395,687,153
$0.91 - $1.81
$1.81 - $27.20
Infill & Metallurgy
5% - 10%
$395,687,153 - $791,374,306
$1.81 - $3.63
$18.13 - $36.27
PEA
10% - 25%
$791,374,306 - $1,978,435,766
$3.63 - $9.07
$9.07 - $27.20
Prefeasibility
25% - 50%
$1,978,435,766 - $3,956,871,532
$9.07 - $18.13
$9.07 - $18.13
Permitting & Feasibility
50% - 75%
$3,956,871,532 - $5,935,307,298
$18.13 - $27.20
$9.07 - $18.13
Construction
75% - 100%
$5,935,307,298 - $7,913,743,064
$27.20 - $36.27
$18.13 - $27.20
Production
100%
$7,913,743,064
$36.27
$36.27 - $45.34
Market Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $1.81 - $27.20
Warning: while the market spec value (S-Curve) and fair spec value channels presented in project value terms track the evolving expected ultimate outcome value, when presented in stock price terms the expected stock prices are subject to dilution through future equity financings or project interest farmouts.
Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
Metal 1
Metal 2
Metal 3
Metal 4
Uranium
Spot:
$81.50 /lb U3O8
OV Assigned:
$81.50 /lb U3O8
Pessimistic:
$25.00 /lb U3O8
Optimistic:
$50.00 /lb U3O8
Fantasy:
$100.00 /lb U3O8
Note: for Metal 1 pessimistic, optimistic and fantasy price scenarios, OV assigned prices are used for Metals 2-4
Economic Outcomes with Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
USD PT NPV
USD PT IRR
USD AT NPV
USD AT IRR
AT Payback yrs
Spot:
$10,271,297,541
178.4%
$5,827,927,729
107.4%
0.9
OV Assigned:
$10,271,297,541
178.4%
$5,827,927,729
107.4%
0.9
Pessimistic:
$1,776,826,846
41.7%
$901,134,726
26.4%
3.5
Optimistic:
$5,535,442,198
102.8%
$3,081,131,630
63.3%
1.6
Fantasy:
$13,052,672,901
222.8%
$7,441,125,438
133.2%
0.8
Fair Speculative Value for Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
Stage: Discovery Delineation - 2.5% - 5.0%
CAD AT NPV
CAD Target Price
CAD FSV Range
CAD FSV per Share Range
CAD MSV per Share Range
Spot:
$7,913,743,064
$36.27
$197,843,577 - $395,687,153
$0.91 - $1.81
$1.81 - $27.20
OV Assigned:
$7,913,743,064
$36.27
$197,843,577 - $395,687,153
$0.91 - $1.81
$1.81 - $27.20
Pessimistic:
$1,223,650,845
$5.61
$30,591,271 - $61,182,542
$0.14 - $0.28
$0.28 - $4.21
Optimistic:
$4,183,868,641
$19.17
$104,596,716 - $209,193,432
$0.48 - $0.96
$0.96 - $14.38
Fantasy:
$10,104,304,233
$46.31
$252,607,606 - $505,215,212
$1.16 - $2.32
$2.32 - $34.73
Disclaimer: A visualized outcome is one of many possible outcomes for an exploration project as it moves through the 9 stages of the exploration-development cycle from grassroots to a producing mine with failure as an outcome at any point along the way. The range of possible outcomes for the physical nature of a deposit shrinks after delivery of an initial 43-101 resource estimate. While the nature of the deposit constrains the range of mining scenarios, the cost assumptions will vary as the project moves through the feasibility demonstration stages of the cycle, which affects the economic value of the final outcome. This economic value will also vary according to the prices of the metals targeted for extraction which may change during the years it takes for a project to become a mine. An outcome visualization is thus a compilation of best guess assumptions for the key variables that drive the discounted cash flow model, the basis for assigning an economic value to a mine. An OV is not intended as a prediction, but rather as a framework that allows the incorporation of new information generated by the exploration-development cycle for the project into a valuation model on an ongoing, dynamic basis.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 7.25%
Ownership Terms: n December, 2007 CanAlaska entered in a joint venture whereby a Korean consortium omprising Hanwha Corporation, Korea Electric Power Corporation, Korea Resources Corporation and SK Energy Co. Ltd may earn a 50% interest in the Cree East Project by investing Cdn$19.0 mil. towards exploration, an amount which has been fully expended. The province of Saskatchewan collects a 7.25% royalty on uranium production value less transportation costs of yellowcake to market. May 18, 2017 deal whereby Canalaska got back 100% in return for providing certain indemnities.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 1.50%
Ownership Terms: Agreement Sept 15, 2021 to acquire 100% from Durama Enterprises Ltd for $50,000, 300,000 shares $850,000 exploration over 4 years subject to 1.5% NSR.
Net Interest: 20% TC Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: August 2009 option for Kodiak Exploration to earn up to 70%. In order to earn an initial 50-per-cent interest in the project, Kodiak must complete $4-million in exploration and issue one million Kodiak shares to CanAlaska over five years. Kodiak may earn a further 10-per-cent interest in the project (60 per cent total), by expending $3-million in exploration/prefeasibility work over an additional three-year period, issuing an additional 550,000 Kodiak shares and producing a 43-101-compliant resource estimate containing at least 35 million pounds U3O8 in the measured and indicated categories. By defining a resource of 50 million pounds U3O8 during the same period, Kodiak's interest may increase to 70 per cent. Optioned dropped. Agreement Sept 23, 2021 for Terra Uranium Pty to earn up to 80% by paying AUD $250,000, issuing 6% of issued stock on Teera securing a public lsiting, and spending AUD $5 million over 3 years. Canalaska receives a 2.25% NSR upon delivery of a 30 million lb JORC resource.
Target Metals: Uranium
Model: Unconformity style
Stage: 2-Target Drilling
Notes on McTavish Project
The McTavish project consists of three separate claim groups totalling 16,385 hectares. One claim group is wholly enclosed by Kodiak's West Millennium project. The other two parcels are intimately intertwined with West Millennium. UTEM data show that the conductors successfully drilled by Kodiak this past winter at West Millennium extend onto the McTavish property and appear to intensify. Previously announced Kodiak drill hole WM09-04, which intersected a 69-metre-thick fractured graphitic and pyritic pelite unit containing up to 0.13 per cent U3O8, is located only 400 metres from the McTavish property and underscores the excellent exploration potential of the project. UTEM data also define two other large-scale, high-magnitude conductors on the McTavish property, both of which are untested by drilling. The combined West Millennium-McTavish property package comprises nearly 380 square kilometres in the heart of the Athabasca basin, only three kilometres west of Cameco's Millennium deposit (47 million pounds U3O8 with an average grade of 4.5 per cent U3O8).
Net Interest: 25% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 7.25%
Ownership Terms: Optioned Jan 5, 2016 to Denison Mines for $200,000 epxloration over 2 years to earn 51%, and another $500,000 to earn 75%. If either party gets diluted below 10% the interest converts into a 2% NSR that can be bought for $500.000 by the other party. The province of Saskatchewan collects a 7.25% royalty on uranium production value less transportation costs of yellowcake to market
Net Interest: 20% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 7.25%
Ownership Terms: 3 claim blocks, 75% optioned to Northwestern Mineral Ventures, which can acquire a 50% interest by paying $150,000, issuing 300,000 shares, and spending $2,000,000 on exploration. NWT can increase its interest incrementally up to 75% by completing a feasibilty study. NMV dropped option. The province of Saskatchewan collects a 7.25% royalty on uranium production value less transportation costs of yellowcake to market. Agreement Sept 23, 2021 for Terra Uranium Pty to earn up to 80% by paying AUD $250,000, issuing 6% of issued stock on Teera securing a public lsiting, and spending AUD $5 million over 3 years. Canalaska receives a 2.25% NSR upon delivery of a 30 million lb JORC resource.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Acquired by staking. Optioned May 18, 2016 to De Beers which enables it to earn 70% by spending CAD $1.4 million within 3 years, at which point Canalaska can chose to form a 70:30 JV, or require De Beers to spend another $3 million over the following year to earn 80%, at which point Canalaska can again elect to form an 80:20 JV, or require De Beers to go to 90% by spending $14 million over 3 years after which a 90:10 JV forms with standard dilution clauses. De Beers does not vest for any interest until Canalaska elects to form a JV or has spent CAD $20.4 million to earn 90%. Option dropped Dec 2016.
Target Metals: Diamond
Model: Kimberlite
Stage: 2-Target Drilling
Notes on AKP Project
Canalaska staked 75 discrete circular magnetic anomalies that showed up in a 2011 geophysical survey flown by the Saskatchewan Geological Survey in an area north of the Carswell Structure (a meteor impact site) that was beyond the limit of the Saskatchewan Kimberlite Indicator Mineral sampling.
De Beers plans to drill test land accessible targets established by an airborne geophysical survey until mid October. Key milestones will be confirmation of intersected kimberlite, followed by caustic dissolution establishing micro diamonds.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 7.25%
Ownership Terms: Acquired by staking. The province of Saskatchewan collects a 7.25% royalty on uranium production value less transportation costs of yellowcake to market.
Target Metals: Uranium
Model: Unconformity
Stage: 1-Grassroots
Notes on Carswell Project
The claims were acquired in August 2014. The area was part of ground held by, and explored, by Amok Ltd in the 1960's to 1990's. There is only one historical drill hole on the property, CAR-311, consisting of steeply dipping, interlayered altered basement and sandstone, with Cluff Breccia dykes. Several uranium showings also occur on or near the property, mostly of radioactive pegmatoid boulders.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Canalaska Uranium acquired the Hunter and Strong claim blocks by staking in 2018. On Feb 26, 2020 Fjordland Exploration optioned up to 80% which it can do by paying CAD $25,000, issuing 1 million shares and spending $1.5 million within 18 months to earn 49%, at which point it can elect to earn70% by paying $50,000, issuing 1.5 million shares and spending $2.5 million within 2 years, at which point it can earn 80% by paying $75,000, issuing 6 million shares and spending $5 million within 2 years. If Fjorland vests for 70% it must pay $10 million to Canalaska upon completing a positive feasibility study. Option dropped.
Most recent 43-101 resource estimate 
Prior resource estimate 
PEA 
PFS 
FS/BFS/DFS
Flagship Play
Secondary Plays
Other Plays
