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SV Rating: Bottom-Fish Spec Value - as of December 30, 2022: P2 Gold Inc was made a Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated 2021 Favorite at $0.40 on December 31, 2020 based on its new role as the post-Pretium exploration vehicle for Joe Ovsenek and Ken MacNaughton, the former CEO and Exploration VP for Pretium and its high grade Brucejack gold project in the Golden Triangle. On February 23, 2021 P2 Gold expanded the focus with the acquisition of an all-season advanced project in Nevada's Walker Lane called Gabbs which hosts several copper-gold porphry style deposits. This is an expensive acquisition whose closing is contingent on P2 Gold completing a $16 million private placement consisting of 32 million shares at $0.50. Gabbs will become the new flagship project for P2 Gold which in the worst case will function as a copper-gold optionality story with the existing resource, but will initially be the focus of a major system rethink by the Ovsenek/MacNaughton team which will assess the deeper potential of what they believe is a gold dominated alkaline porphyry system different from the copper porphyries at Yerington. The Golden Triangle projects optioned during the summer of 2020 have heavy vesting obligations that kick in after the second year, so these will be subjected to make or break exploration programs over the next year. P2 Gold remains Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated while we wait for the $16 million financing to close, of which USD $5 million will go to close the Gabbs acquisition, and the rest will fund 2021 exploration programs. Along with several associates Joe Ovsenek and Ken MacNaughton purchased founder stakes through a 10 million share private placement at $0.10 (no warrants) in April 2020 following a 6:1 rollback of Central Timmins Exploration Corp, a mediocre junior which went public by IPO through PI Financial on Oct 16, 2018 with a group of claims on the fringes of the mining town Timmins on the Ontario side the Abitibi Greenstone Belt. They shifted the focus to northern British Columbia, first with a 70% option on the Silver Reef project north of Hazelton where the target is a silver-zinc-lead carbonate replacement system similar to the Silver Standard deposit near Hazelton. Then in early July 2020 P2 Gold optioned up to 70% of the Todd Creek and the BAM properties in the Golden Triangle from separate vendors. And for good measure they brought Silver Standard's mine finders Bud Hillemeyer and Perry Durning back into the fold by leasing on fairly easy terms their Lost Cabin and Stockade epithermal prospects in southeastern Oregon. P2 Gold can acquire 100% of Gabbs from the Waterton private equity group for USD $5 million and 15 million shares, with another $5 million due by the earlier of a PEA completion or 2 years. The 2,800 hectare Gabbs property adjoins to the north of the former Paradise Peak Mine operated as an open pit by FMC Gold from 1986-1994 which yielded 1.6 million oz gold and 24.1 million oz silver from a high sulphidation epithermal system aged at 22 million years. FMC sold Paradise Peak to Arimetco in 1995 which also owned the Gabbs property that FMC had explored in 1991-92. Arimetco went bankrupt in 1997, Paradise Peak became an abandoned reclamation site, and the Gabbs claims lapsed until Newcrest staked them in 2002 and explored Gabbs until 2008 when it withdrew from North America. Gabbs was acquired in 2011 by St Vincent Minerals Inc whose IPO plans never materialized and was acquired by Colin Bird's AIM listed ich Galileo Resources Plc in 2014 for CAD $4.3 million. Galileo sold Gabbs to Waterton in August 2016 for USD $2.5 million, so this deal with P2 Gold is shaping up as a big score for Waterton. The Gabbs property hosts three spatially distinct porphyry style deposits called Sullivan, Lucky Strike and Gold Ledge for which 43-101 open-pittable inferred resources have been estimated at 26.2 million tonnes of 0.72 g/t gold and 0.248% copper for oxides and 46.9 million tonnes at 0.43 g/t gold and 0.27% copper for sulphides. Most of the resource is split 54% Sullivan and 46% Lucky Strike which are about 3.5 km apart. The Gold Ledge zone, which sits in between, has a resource of only 100,000 tonnes, but sits above a significant IP chargeability high modeled at a depth of 450 m that has not been tested. The copper-gold mineralization is Cretaceous aged, younger than the middle Jurassic age of the Yerington cluster of substantially larger porphyry deposits 100 km to the west. The Yerington porphyries are of the calc-alkaline type that have low gold values, whereas the porphyries at Gabbs appear to be the high K calc-alkaline variety which have higher gold values. The Sullivan and Lucky Strike zones occur as sill-like monzonite intrusives within a gabbroic complex that has not been age dated. The depositional origin of these "sills" is not understood, and it is speculated that they may have linkage to an intrusive center beneath Gold Ledge. The Car Body zone to the south for which 2.8 million tonnes of 1.39 g/t gold has been estimated appears to be an unrelated, much younger low sulphidation epithermal system. The Gabbs property has had 494 holes drilled between 1970-2011, though 320 of these holes fail the QA/QC criteria needed for 43-101 resource reporting. The average depth of past drill holes was 94 metres. P2 Gold has proposed a CAD $6 million program for 2021 that will include additional geophysical surveys to cover the entire property and 20,000 m of drilling, the majority of which will be RC. The drilling will consist mainly of infill drilling to support a PEA by Q1 of 2022, but also include chasing the Sullivan and Lucky Strike zones beyond the pit limits that defined the Newcrest drilling in 2002-2008. P2 Gold will also test the deeper IP target to see if higher grade copper-gold mineralization is present that would lend itself to underground mining as can happen with high K calc-alkaline porphyries. Most of the property falls under BLM jurisdiction and P2 Gold will for now rely on 5 acre disturbance notice of intent drill permits. P2 Gold spent $900,000 on the Silver Reef project in 2020, mainly drilling the Main Zone with spotty results. The work included sampling which highlighted the Northwest Zone, which a magnetic survey that summer while the drilling was underway showed that it is part of a linear magnetic trend called the Northwest Zone trend which P2 Gold intends to drill in early summer so that it has results in hand by late August so that it can decide whether to drill additional holes in September or drop the option. The company's highest Golden Triangle hopes lie with the BAM property optioned from Charlie Greig who staked the claims when the most recent owner let them lapse. BAM is a copper-gold prospect discovered during the 1960s when Galore Creek, 35 km to the west, and Shaft Creek, 20 km to the northwest, were found. P2 Gold conducted sampling and geophysical surveys in 2020 which highlighted the Monarch Gold Zone which P2 Gold plans to drill in July with the hope that it represents a copper-gold porphyry system more like Galore Creek than Shaft Creek. The 32,000 hectare Todd Creek project owned by ArcWest Exploration has also been around for decades and is an expensive option, but Ovsenek and MacNaughton optioned it because they see potential for Brucejack style high grade gold zones which they know how to make or break over the next year. As far as the Oregon properties are concerned, Lost Cabin is a high sulphidation epithermal system which Camino had under lease for a while, and Stockade is a newer low sulphidation epithermal system generated by the Bud and Perry team for Tom Kaplan's Electrum group which was dropped without drilling to the hypothesized boiling zone depth. It is not clear that any money will be allocated to the Oregon prospects in 2021. If P2 Gold closes its $16 million private placement it will have 76.5 million issued and 87.5 million fully diluted. It will be sufficiently funded to advance the Gabbs project in Nevada while conducting make or break drill programs on the northern BC prospects during 2021. P2 Gold Inc is a Favorite that started as a people bet on Joe Ovsenek and Ken MacNaughton who started during the 1990's with Silver Standard and played key roles during the past decade at the Pretium spinout. It is not a slam dunk because the initial BC properties optioned for P2 Gold are exploration plays that may not deliver discoveries that justify maintaining the earn-in options. Gabbs is a more advanced project in a year-round jurisdiction where money spent on feasibility demonstration could show that Gabbs can be developed as a profitable open-pit, milling-flotation copper-gold mine, but where there is also exploration potential at depth which could lead to a much bigger and possibly richer underlying copper-gold system. The key milestone is closing that $16 million financing.
What's Next?
Updated July 29, 2021: P2 Gold Inc was made a Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated 2021 Favorite at $0.40 on December 31, 2020 based on its new role as the post-Pretium exploration vehicle for Joe Ovsenek and Ken MacNaughton, the former CEO and Exploration VP for Pretium and its high grade Brucejack gold project in the Golden Triangle. In late February 2021 P2 Gold expanded its focus with the proposed acquisition of the advanced copper-gold porphyry Gabbs project in Nevada which will allow the company to work year round on a geology rethink play where the worst case outcome is a PEA in Q1 of 2023 which demonstrates the feasibility of open pit mining and milling the existing combined oxide and sulphide inferred resource of 73.1 million tonnes at 0.53 g/t gold and 0.26% copper. The more optimistic outcome is that deeper exploration allows the open-pittable resource to be doubled to 150 million tonnes without a decline in grade, while the bluesky exploration outcome resides in demonstrating that the near surface porphyry zones originate from an untested 450 m deep IP chargeability high anomaly interpreted to be a high K calc-alkaline intrusive center sufficiently enriched with copper and gold to support an underground block-caving mine. The basis for P2 Gold's Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated Favorite status is provided in SVR Overview Tracker March 22, 2021. The Gabbs acquisition and exploration plans were supposed to be funded by a $16 million private placement consisting of 32 million shares at $0.50 announced in late February along with the Gabbs deal and amended in early April to include a full warrant at $0.85 for 2 years and an acceleration clause at $1.50. The evaporation of market interest in the junior resource sector by both retail and institutional audiences was so bad that P2 Gold closed only $5.94 million on May 17, 2021 of which Ken and Joe personally ponied up $3.5 million with the rest taken by retail investors. This financing comes free trading in mid September but should not pose much of a clip and flip problem. The Gabbs vendor, Waterton, which is now the largest shareholder at 15 million shares, amended the deal so that only USD $1 million was due up front with the remaining $4 million in a year. P2 Gold was able to raise another $1.75 million in flow-through which is earmarked for the optioned projects in northwestern British Columbia. Although the downsized financing left P2Gold with only $6 million working capital, it did preserve the structure of the junior so that an uptrend can develop more easily (56.4 million issued 87.5 million diluted). The stock sagged in the aftermath of the financing while P2 Gold mobilized drill programs for the BAM and Gabbs projects. P2 Gold has 2 gold focused projects within the Golden Triangle, BAM and Todd Creek, and two CRD style silver projects to the east, Silver Reef optioned in 2019, and Natlan optioned in 2021. The BAM project is a former copper prospect where field work in 2020 generated a gold-in-soil anomaly with associated IP targets called Monarch on which P2 Gold conducted a 1,000 m drill program of 100-200 m deep holes. The target is interpreted as the sort of epithermal system associated with a deeper porphyry system which management believes is a Galore Creek type. The holes apparently yielded decent sulphide intervals but only assays will reveal the gold-silver content. If assays are received by late August and indicate a discovery P2 Gold will drill a few more holes before winter shuts everything down. The other 3 BC properties will only receive target development work this summer. P2 Gold has completed an MT geophysical survey at Todd Creek where the goal is to find a Brucejack style epithermal system. The interpretation of the MT survey is still pending. The primary focus over the next 18 months will be the Gabbs copper-gold project in Nevada where the goal is to deliver a PEA by early 2023. The Gabbs property hosts three spatially distinct porphyry style deposits called Sullivan, Lucky Strike and Gold Ledge for which 43-101 open-pittable inferred resources have been estimated at 26.2 million tonnes of 0.72 g/t gold and 0.248% copper for oxides and 46.9 million tonnes at 0.43 g/t gold and 0.27% copper for sulphides. Most of the resource is split 54% Sullivan and 46% Lucky Strike which are about 3.5 km apart. The Gold Ledge zone, which sits in between, has a resource of only 100,000 tonnes, but sits above a significant IP chargeability high modeled at a depth of 450 m that has not been tested. The copper-gold mineralization is Cretaceous aged, younger than the middle Jurassic age of the Yerington cluster of substantially larger porphyry deposits 100 km to the west. The Yerington porphyries are of the calc-alkaline type that have low gold values, whereas the porphyries at Gabbs appear to be the high K calc-alkaline variety which have higher gold values. The Sullivan and Lucky Strike zones occur as sill-like monzonite intrusives within a gabbroic complex that has not been age dated. The depositional origin of these "sills" is not understood, and it is speculated that they may have linkage to an intrusive center beneath Gold Ledge. The Car Body zone to the south for which 2.8 million tonnes of 1.39 g/t gold has been estimated appears to be an unrelated, much younger low sulphidation epithermal system. The Gabbs property has had 494 holes drilled between 1970-2011, though 320 of these holes fail the QA/QC criteria needed for 43-101 resource reporting. The average depth of past drill holes was 94 metres. Most of the historical drilling involved percussion holes. P2 Gold started a 1,500 m drill program in July 2021 consisting of about 14 core holes to a maximum depth of 250 m. The goal is to assess grades in the deeper part of the deposit and secure geological data to help define a better domain model and identify structural controls for higher grades within the Sullivan Zone. This will be followed by 8,000 m of RC drilling. An updated resource estimate is expected in mid 2022. P2 Gold has also initiated a metallurgical study using oxide mineralization from the Sullivan pit. Results are expected in late August. The overall goal is to double the existing inferred resource so as to support a future 30,000 tpd open pit operation. The data flow from Gabbs, because it mainly involves infill drilling, is unlikely to generate any sudden market move which will come gradually as investors begin to model the size of the prize, visualizing the outcome of the PEA and the economic value at various copper and gold prices. The discovery upside this year hinges on BAM results.
Corporate Change History
#Old for New
Last Price
Prior Name
Subsequent Name
Details
Jan 14, 2020
Reverse Split
6:1
$0.03
Central Timmins Exploration Corp (CTEC-V)
Central Timmins Expl Corp (CTEC-V)
Aug 31, 2020
Name Change
1:1
$0.58
Central Timmins Expl Corp (CTEC-V)
P2 Gold Inc (PLGD-V)
Recommendation History
Edition
Date
Price
Recommendation
Gain
SVF2021
12/31/2020
$0.40
Bottom-Fish Spec Value Favorite
0%
SVF2021
12/31/2021
$0.68
SV Technical Closeout 100%
70%
SVF2022
12/31/2021
$0.68
Fair Spec Value Favorite
0%
SVF2022
12/30/2022
$0.25
SV Technical Closeout 100%
-63%
Ranking within Company's Price Range based Group
All TSX-TSXV KRO as of Sep 29, 2023
Group Median
Company
Percentile
Score
Price Range:
$0.10-$0.19
Issued:
71,380,544
106,071,913
37.3%
46.1%
Price Group Total:
244
Working Cap:
$576,864
$782,201
54.9%
TSXV KRO as of Sep 29, 2023
Group Median
Company
Percentile
Score
Price Range:
$0.10-$0.19
Issued:
69,656,423
106,071,913
34.9%
45.2%
Price Group Total:
229
Working Cap:
$567,897
$782,201
55.5%
Group figures exclude delisted and suspended companies. The higher the company percentile the better, based on the assumptions that the lowest issued shares and highest working capital are best. The score is the average of the percentiles. A percentile is that percentage of a group that a member ranks higher than. Note that issued and WC reflect latest financials.
Ranking Color Code:
Lower than 25%
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
Higher than 75%
Charts & Financing Activity
Most recent 43-101 resource estimate Prior resource estimate PEA PFS FS/BFS/DFS
Private Placement Key
less than $500,000
$1,000,000 - $2,000,000
$5,000,000 - $10,000,000
$20,000,000 - $50,000,000
$500,000 - $1,000,000
$2,000,000 - $5,000,000
$10,000,000 - $20,000,000
over $50,000,000
Private placement financing dates and value ranges are based on transactions reported by the TSXV Monthly Review.
Past Insiders and Reported Shareholders - Current Ownership Status unknown - positions may be pre-rollback
Related Party
Occupation
Related Since
Insider Ended
Director Ended
Capacity
Ownership
Charles M. Gryba
Engineer
10/15/2018
4/16/2020
4/16/2020
CEO & President
616,667
Christopher Hopkins
Accountant
5/19/2019
10/21/2020
CFO
0
INFOR Financial Inc
Private Company
10/15/2018
5/9/2019
Insider
675,000
Tineke Keesmaat
Investor
5/7/2020
Insider
400,000
Julian B. Kemp
Accountant
7/17/2018
11/12/2020
11/12/2020
Director
4,167
Jens Mayer
Broker
10/15/2018
5/9/2019
Insider
675,000
Keith L. Peck
Broker
5/7/2020
Placee
2,000,000
Arvin Ramos
Accountant
4/23/2018
10/21/2020
CFO
0
Wesley Roberts
Analyst
7/17/2018
5/7/2020
5/7/2020
Director
41,667
John Sullivan
Geologist
7/17/2018
10/21/2020
10/21/2020
Director
16,666
Mark Wellings
Engineer
10/15/2018
5/9/2019
Insider
675,000
Share positions of current insiders based on last AGM circular, ownership % based on current Issued. Share positions of past insiders and shareholders have not been adjusted for rollbacks or splits.
Active Index Memberships
Membership Start Date:
December 31, 2021
Start Price:
$0.68
KRO Favorites 2022: Features companies designated 2022 KRO Favorites, based on closing price December 31, 2021.
A Spec Value Hunter table allows speculators to identify which projects offer poor, fair or good speculative value according to the rational speculation model. The speculative value depends on the project stage, the project's implied value as calculated by the company's fully diluted, stock price and net project interest, and the dream target deemed appropriate for the project. A dream target is what a project would be worth in discounted cash flow terms once in production.
Poor Speculative Value -
Fair Speculative Value -
Good Speculative Value -
Note: narrow arrows indicate IPV is outside the fair value channel but within 25% of the fair value limits
Color Key for Target Outcome Achievability Ranges in millions ranked from most to least achievable
below $25
Should be Private: Artisanal, Placer, Mom & Pop Shop
$25-$50
Tiny Scale: underground mine or quarry - not worth the bother
$50-$100
Small Scale: junior needs to self-develop
$100-$250
Buyout Target: by Lower Tier Producers
$250-$500
Buyout Target: by Mid-Tier Producers
$500-$1,000
Ideal Target for Junior: Buckhorn, Sleeper
$1,000-$2,000
Almost World Class: Ekati, Red Chris, Brucejack, Juanicipio, Stibnite
$2,000-$5,000
World Class: Eskay Creek, Hemlo, Hermosa-Taylor, Oyu Tolgoi, LaRonde, McArthur
$5,000-$10,000
Giants: Escondida, Sullivan, Carlin Trend, Kidd Creek, Orapa, Kamoa-Kakula
above $10,000
Off the Scale District: Wits 1.0, Araxa, Sudbury Basin, Bayan Obo
The target outcome range required for the current implied project value to represent fair speculative value is based on the upper and lower certainty limits associated with the project stage. The color coding is based on the target outcome using the mid-point of the certainty range.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement Feb 23, 2021 to acquire 100% from Waterton Precious Metals Fund II Cayman LP for USD $5 million and 15 million shares, plus another $5 million on completion of a PEA or within 2 years. Waterton retains 2% NSR of which 1% can be bought for $1.5 million and 1% for $5 million. On May 5, 2021 amended so that $1 million is due on closing and $4 million in 12 months. Amending agreement Mar 6, 2023 whereby P2 Gold issued 2,659,748 shares to change the payment schedule: USD $150,000 due Dec 31, 2023, $250,000 on Dec 31, 2024, $2 million Dec 31, 2025, and $2.4 million Dec 31, 2025. If P2 Gold raises more than CAD $7.5 million 10% must be paid against the final milestone payment. Waterton has been granted a 4 year USD $4 million debenture convertible at $0.30 which cannot be converted if all payments are up to date. P2 Gold can call it any time but must pay premiums.
Phase 1 met study to establish best processing scenario June-Aug 2021, Aug 4 results indicate oxide heap leaching and sulphide milling-flotation best scenario.
Target Testing
2021 Q3 Mid July
2021 Q4 Late December
5,000 m core & RC 31 hole drill program July 20-Oct 19, 2021, assays by late Dec 2021. Confirm geology & past drilling grades, extend depth, mainly on Sullivan.
Metallurgical Study
2021 Q4 Mid October
2022 Q1 Late February
Phase 2 met study on Sullivan oxides-sulphides started Mid Oct 2021, results late Feb 2022.
Ownership
2021 Q2 Mid May
2022 Q2 Mid May
Gabbs acquisition deal May 2021 requires USD $4 million payment to Waterton in May 2022.
Target Testing
2022 Q1 Early March
2022 Q3 Late July
20,000 m core & RC drilling for Carbody & Lucky Strike to provide met samples and define resource for PEA, start Mar 2022 with results end of July 2022.
Metallurgical Study
2022 Q2 Early May
2022 Q3 Late August
Phase 3 met study start May for Lucky Strike and Carbody sulphides with samples from 2022 drill program.
Updated Resource Estimate
2021 Q3 Mid July
2022 Q1 Late February
Drilling to support updated resource estimate began June 2021 with 5,000 m, to be followed by 20,000 m in 2022, an updated resource that incorporates Sullivan drilling is expected late February.
Economic Study - PEA
2021 Q3 Mid July
2022 Q4 Late December
PEA started July 2020 expected to be done by end of 2022, open pit two track heap leaching and sulphide milling-flotation, 20,000 tpd mining rate based on existing resource, possible 50%-100% resource expansion.
Base Case Resource Estimates
Project Resource Estimate - Gabbs - Oxide OP
Feb 10, 2022
NI 43-101
Eugene Puritch, P.Eng, P&E Mining Consultants Inc
Cutoff: 0.35 g/t AuEq $1,675/oz Au, $3.80/lb Cu, 74% Au and 48% Cu recoveries, $2.14/t mining, $13.81/t process, $0.68/t G&A
Note: Based on 4 core and 27 RC holes in 2021 by P2 Gold, plus 494 prior holes in 1970-2011.
Resource Category
Tonnage
Total Rock Value
Metal
Grade
Recovery
Contained Metal
% of GMV
Indicated Resources
20,100,000
$60/t
Gold
0.61 g/t
100.0%
394,206 oz
61%
Copper
0.290%
100.0%
128,506,141 lb
39%
Inferred Mineral Resources
9,900,000
$52/t
Gold
0.61 g/t
100.0%
194,161 oz
70%
Copper
0.190%
100.0%
41,468,528 lb
30%
All Categories Spot
30,000,000
$58/t
Gold
0.61 g/t
588,368 oz
64%
Copper
0.257%
169,974,669 lb
36%
Spot Gross Metal Value
Market Cap as % of Net GMV
Spot Prices Used
$1,726,048,531
1.1%
Gold $1,870.50/oz, Copper $3.68/lb
Project Resource Estimate - Gabbs - Sulphide OP
Feb 10, 2022
NI 43-101
Eugene Puritch, P.Eng, P&E Mining Consultants Inc
Cutoff: 0.36 g/t Au Eq $1,675/oz Au, $3.80/lb Cu, 94% Au and 87% Cu recoveries, $2.14/t mining, $13.81/t process, $0.68/t G&A
Note: Based on 4 core and 27 RC holes in 2021 by P2 Gold, plus 494 prior holes in 1970-2011.
Resource Category
Tonnage
Total Rock Value
Metal
Grade
Recovery
Contained Metal
% of GMV
Indicated Resources
23,300,000
$42/t
Gold
0.34 g/t
100.0%
254,702 oz
48%
Copper
0.270%
100.0%
138,691,393 lb
52%
Inferred Mineral Resources
60,100,000
$41/t
Gold
0.35 g/t
100.0%
676,301 oz
51%
Copper
0.250%
100.0%
331,241,168 lb
49%
All Categories Spot
83,400,000
$42/t
Gold
0.35 g/t
931,003 oz
50%
Copper
0.256%
469,932,561 lb
50%
Spot Gross Metal Value
Market Cap as % of Net GMV
Spot Prices Used
$3,470,793,760
0.6%
Gold $1,870.50/oz, Copper $3.68/lb
Outcome Visualization Project as of Sep 29, 2023: P2 Gold Inc: Gabbs
The Gabbs project is a cluster of copper-gold deposits in Nevada that P2 Gold has acquired from Waterton and which have received considerable work in the past from various operators on which a 43-101 resource estimate for 4 zones - Sullivan, Lucky Strike, Car Body and Gold Ledge - with oxides and sulphides has been defined. The objective is to update the resource estimate and potentially expand the tonnage by extending the depth of the Sullivan and Lucky Strike zones, complete metallurgical studies to support a two track flowsheet where the oxides are heap leached and the sulphides are milled and floated to produce a copper concentrate, and deliver a PEA by the end of 2022. Because the OV model only works with a single LOM flowsheet the costs and recoveries have been averaged out to reflect the relative proportion of sulphide and oxide ore. This OV replaces the Oct 27, 2021 OV based on the 2021 43-101 inferred resource of 26,200,000 tonnes oxide at 0.72 g/t gold and 0.25% copper and 46,900,000 tonnes sulphide at 0.54 g/t gold and 0.26% copper. It is based on the Feb 10, 2022 resource estimate of 30,000,000 tonnes oxide at 0.61 g/t gold and 0.26% copper, and 83,400,000 tonnes sulphide at 0.35 g/t gold and 0.26% copper. The 20,000 tpd combined mining rate supports a 16 year mine life. The valuation upside resides in achieving better grades and expanding the mine life through bigger tonnage.
LOM Payable: 475.0 million lb copper, 1.3 million oz gold
Economic Outcome (USD): Revenue Model at OV designated Metal Prices
Annual Average
Life of Mine (LOM)
LOM Stats
Recoverable Revenue:
$278,981,690
$4,333,770,360
$38/t ore Recoverable Value:
Smelter/Transport Costs:
($18,270,775)
($283,822,720)
6.5% of Recoverable Revenue
Gross Payable Revenue:
$260,710,915
$4,049,947,640
93.5% of Recoverable Revenue
Royalties:
$0
$0
0.0% of Gross Payable Revenue
Net Payable Revenue:
$260,710,915
$4,049,947,640
93.5% of Recoverable Revenue
Mining Cost:
($46,866,000)
($728,028,000)
26% of OpEx - $6.42/t ore
Processing Cost:
($119,793,000)
($1,860,894,000)
67% of OpEx - $16.41/t ore
Other Cost:
($4,964,000)
($77,112,000)
3% of OpEx - $0.68/t ore
Sustaining Cost:
($6,000,000)
($96,000,000)
3% of OpEx - $0.85/t ore
Total Operating Cost:
($177,623,000)
($2,762,034,000)
68% of Net Payable Revenue - OpEx - $24.36/t ore
Pre-Tax Cash Flow:
$83,087,915
$1,287,913,640
32% of Net Payable Revenue - $11.36/t ore
Taxes:
($14,521,979)
($228,228,410)
18% of Pre-Tax Cash Flow - $2.01/t ore
After-Tax Cash Flow:
$68,565,936
$1,059,685,230
26% of Net Payable Revenue - $9.34/t ore
Note: Concentrate transport costs, smelter treatment costs and retention are subtracted from recoverable revenue to get gross payable revenue to which the uncapped royalty rate for the project is applied. The annual average of LOM sustaining cost is expensed as an annual operating cost. Annual average figures reflect full production years.
Economic Outcome (USD): Royalty Model for 1% NSR at OV designated Metal Prices
Mine Life:
16 years
Startup
NPV 5%
NPV 10%
NPV 15%
Annual Avg NSR:
$2,607,109
Now
$26,379,978
$18,302,729
$13,385,720
LOM NSR:
$40,499,476
2025
$23,927,418
$15,126,222
$10,121,527
Economic Outcome - Discount Rate: 7.5% - CAD AT NPV: $311.0 million - Fair Speculative Value
Gross Rock Value (USD/t):
$46
Recoverable Rock Value:
$38
Payable Rock Value:
$36
LOM Net Payable Revenue (USD):
$4,049,947,640
LOM PT Cash Flow (USD):
$1,287,913,640
LOM AT Cash Flow (USD):
$1,059,685,230
USD Pre-Tax NPV:
$345,585,001
Pre-Tax IRR:
21.0%
Pre-Tax Payback:
4.5
USD After-Tax NPV:
$230,285,438
After-Tax IRR:
17.1%
After-Tax Payback:
5.2
CAD Fair Spec Value Low:
$15,567,296
CAD Fair Spec Value High:
$31,134,591
CAD Implied Project Value:
$19,489,018
Price Target if Visualized Outcome delivered by Expl-Dev Cycle without dilution: CAD $2.08
Fair Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $0.10 - $0.21
MSV (Market Cycle S Curve): Market Speculative Value represents the typical market pricing pattern of a new discovery as it moves through its exploration-development cycle. The irrational pricing behavior of the yellow channel contrasts with the fair speculative value of the blue channel as defined by the rational speculation model because during the pre-economic study stages there is great uncertainty about how big the discovery will turn out.
Fair Speculative Value Ladder
USD OV NPV
CAD OV NPV
Exch Rate
Diluted
Net Interest
$230,285,438
$311,345,912
1.3520
149,915,521
100.00%
Project Stage
Uncertainty Range
CAD FSV Range
CAD FSV per Share Range
CAD MSV per Share Range
Grassroots
0.5% - 1.0%
$1,556,730 - $3,113,459
$0.01 - $0.02
$0.02 - $0.05
Target Drilling
1.0% - 2.5%
$3,113,459 - $7,783,648
$0.02 - $0.05
$0.05 - $0.10
Discovery Delineation
2.5% - 5.0%
$7,783,648 - $15,567,296
$0.05 - $0.10
$0.10 - $1.56
Infill & Metallurgy
5% - 10%
$15,567,296 - $31,134,591
$0.10 - $0.21
$1.04 - $2.08
PEA
10% - 25%
$31,134,591 - $77,836,478
$0.21 - $0.52
$0.52 - $1.56
Prefeasibility
25% - 50%
$77,836,478 - $155,672,956
$0.52 - $1.04
$0.52 - $1.04
Permitting & Feasibility
50% - 75%
$155,672,956 - $233,509,434
$1.04 - $1.56
$0.52 - $1.04
Construction
75% - 100%
$233,509,434 - $311,345,912
$1.56 - $2.08
$1.04 - $1.56
Production
100%
$311,345,912
$2.08
$2.08 - $2.60
Market Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $1.04 - $2.08
Warning: while the market spec value (S-Curve) and fair spec value channels presented in project value terms track the evolving expected ultimate outcome value, when presented in stock price terms the expected stock prices are subject to dilution through future equity financings or project interest farmouts.
Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
Metal 1
Metal 2
Metal 3
Metal 4
Copper
Gold
Spot:
$3.68 /lb
$1,871 /oz
OV Assigned:
$3.68 /lb
$1,871 /oz
Pessimistic:
$2.50 /lb
$1,871 /oz
Optimistic:
$5.00 /lb
$1,871 /oz
Fantasy:
$7.00 /lb
$1,871 /oz
Note: for Metal 1 pessimistic, optimistic and fantasy price scenarios, OV assigned prices are used for Metals 2-4
Economic Outcomes with Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
USD PT NPV
USD PT IRR
USD AT NPV
USD AT IRR
AT Payback yrs
Spot:
$345,585,001
21.0%
$230,285,438
17.1%
5.2
OV Assigned:
$345,585,001
21.0%
$230,285,438
17.1%
5.2
Pessimistic:
$43,367,986
9.4%
$3,339,195
7.7%
8.7
Optimistic:
$683,658,271
32.5%
$483,840,390
26.3%
3.7
Fantasy:
$1,195,890,499
49.2%
$868,014,561
39.2%
2.5
Fair Speculative Value for Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
Stage: Infill & Metallurgy - 5.0% - 10.0%
CAD AT NPV
CAD Target Price
CAD FSV Range
CAD FSV per Share Range
CAD MSV per Share Range
Spot:
$311,345,912
$2.08
$15,567,296 - $31,134,591
$0.10 - $0.21
$1.04 - $2.08
OV Assigned:
$311,345,912
$2.08
$15,567,296 - $31,134,591
$0.10 - $0.21
$1.04 - $2.08
Pessimistic:
$4,514,591
$0.03
$225,730 - $451,459
$0.00 - $0.00
$0.02 - $0.03
Optimistic:
$654,152,208
$4.36
$32,707,610 - $65,415,221
$0.22 - $0.44
$2.18 - $4.36
Fantasy:
$1,173,555,687
$7.83
$58,677,784 - $117,355,569
$0.39 - $0.78
$3.91 - $7.83
Disclaimer: A visualized outcome is one of many possible outcomes for an exploration project as it moves through the 9 stages of the exploration-development cycle from grassroots to a producing mine with failure as an outcome at any point along the way. The range of possible outcomes for the physical nature of a deposit shrinks after delivery of an initial 43-101 resource estimate. While the nature of the deposit constrains the range of mining scenarios, the cost assumptions will vary as the project moves through the feasibility demonstration stages of the cycle, which affects the economic value of the final outcome. This economic value will also vary according to the prices of the metals targeted for extraction which may change during the years it takes for a project to become a mine. An outcome visualization is thus a compilation of best guess assumptions for the key variables that drive the discounted cash flow model, the basis for assigning an economic value to a mine. An OV is not intended as a prediction, but rather as a framework that allows the incorporation of new information generated by the exploration-development cycle for the project into a valuation model on an ongoing, dynamic basis.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 1.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement July 2, 2020 to earn 70% for $960,000, 1,400,000 shares and $750,000 exploration over 3 years. On vesting P2 has 120 days to acquire 100% for $7.5 million of which it may pay $4 million in shares. If P2 stays at 70% it must carry the vendor for 3 years after which it converts to a 2% NSR though P2 has the right to pay $7.5 million to acquire the 30% before conversion. If the vendor ends up with a 2% NSR P2 can purchase 1% for $2 million. Agreement Mar 5, 2023 to acquire adjacent Ball Creek property from orogen Royalties for 4 million shares and a 2% NSR of which 1% can be bought for $1 million anytime. There is an existing 2% NSR of which half can be bought for $1 million, though there is a $4 million production milestone payment linked to it.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement July 13, 2021 to acquire 100% for $775,000 and 1,000,000 shares over 5 years, and spend $300,000 within 2 years. Vendors retain a 2% NSR which P2 Gold can buy back any time for $5 million plus inflation adjustment.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement June 11, 2020 to option 70% by paying $50,000 and issuing 200,000 shares on signing, $200,000 and 200,000 shares at Y1, $500,000 and 800,000 shares on Y2, and spending $2 million by the end of Y3. Y1 expl exp is $250,000. On vesting for 70% CTEC has 120 days to purchase the remaining 30% for $7.5 million of which it can elect to pay $4 million in stock. If CTEC elects to form a 70:30 JV instead, it must fund the vendor's share for the first 3 years. If the vendor does not sell the 30% stake within those 3 years, it converts to a 3% NSR though CTEC will have the right to purchase that interest for $7.5 million prior to conversion.
Net Interest: 70% WI Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement July 8, 2020 to earn 51% from Arcwest Expl Inc for $1,150,000, 200,000 shares and $15 million epxloration over 5 years. P2 must spend $3 million within 2 years. On vesting for 51% P2 has the option to increase to 70% by completing a feasibility study within 3 years and paying $250,000 on each anniversary in stock or cash at Arcwest's choice.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 2.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement Sept 10, 2020 to lease 100% from Perry Durning and Bud Hillemeyer (La Cuesta) for USD $5,000 and 100,000 shares on signing, with lease payments escalating to $30,000 every 6 months after an initial 30 month term. Venfors retain 2% NSR which reduces to 1% after cumulative payment of USD $10 million.
Most recent 43-101 resource estimate 
Prior resource estimate 
PEA 
PFS 
FS/BFS/DFS
Flagship Play
Secondary Plays
Other Plays
