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Kaiser Media Watch Blog - August 1, 2022 to August 31, 2022


KRO Blog Overview
The KRO Blog is where unrestricted content of a time sensitive nature is posted. It includes the Kaiser Media Watch Blog which features content involving John Kaiser produced by third parties such as the Discovery Watch series by HoweStreet.com, interviews by outfits such as Investing News Network, SDLRC related commentary, the KRO Monthly Summaries, and just about anything else John writes that is not intended exclusively for the fee based KRO Membership.


Posted: Aug 25, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch August 25, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Aug 25, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch August 25, 2022: California's Zero ICE Dream & Lithium Mania 2.0
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch August 25, 2022: California's Zero ICE Dream & Lithium Mania 2.0
Jim (0:00:00): Canalaska Uranium reported results for what you called a discovery hole at its West McArthur project. Did it meet expectations?
Canalaska Uranium released assays for its hole #67 on August 22, 2022 confirming a major new huranium discovery in the Athabasca Basin. True width is not yet known though they assume the conductive structure dips to the southeast. The second rig has now completed a pilot hole and has joined the first rig in wedging around the discovery hole. These rigs are fine for drilling deep scout holes, but they are prone to deviation, which is a problem when trying to do small stepouts on a mineralized zone that begins between 800-900 m depth. So Canalaska's focus for now is to learn the structural framework in the vicinity of the discovery hole so that delineation drilling can get seriously underway in 2023 when they are wedging with a directional drill rig.
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
West McArthur Canada - Saskatchewan 3-Discovery Delineation U

Location of Discovery Hole on New Conductor

Hole 67 and Assay Results

Examples of key Athabasca Basin deposits with geometry 100 m below unconformity highlighted
Jim (0:05:08): This year's copper price retreat has not helped P2 Gold which is working to demonstrate the feasibility of its Gabbs copper-gold project in Nevada. How are things going for its Bam gold exploration play in the Golden Triangle?
P2 Gold has stopped physical work on the Gabbs copper-gold project while it works on completing a PEA before year end. Copper's sharp drop during the past few months has chilled market interest. My own OV for a combined sulphide milling oxide heap leaching scenario does not clear development hurdles at the current gold and copper prices. Management, however, understands that, and their goal is to develop a mining plan which starts with low CapEx heap leaching of the gold dominant oxides, and use the cash flow to build the more expensive mill needed to process the copper dominant sulphides. Key question will be the base case copper price. Most people think the current spot price is too low if the world avoids a n extended recession, and certainly too low if the energy transition away from fossil fuels is supposed to become reality. The summer excitement was supposed to come from drilling the Monarch gold discovery in the Golden Triangle which began in late June. So far drilling has been limited to shallow holes designed to outline a bulk tonnage gold system in the 1-2 g/t range. The summer bluesky was supposed to come from deeper holes testing a hypothesized feeder zone somewhere beneath the young basalt cap. They were ready to roll with a ZTEM survey in early July but low cloud cover delayed the start of the survey. It was completed early August and is still undergoing interpretation and consolidation with other geophysical data. The next milestone will be confirmation that a meaningful geophysical target has emerged that justifies drilling deeper holes in September-October.
P2 Gold Inc (PGLD-V)





Favorite
Fair Spec Value
BAM Canada - British Columbia 3-Discovery Delineation Au Ag Cu

Deep Feeder Target awaiting ZTEM Survey Interpretation

PEA with ore schedule that stages CapEx spending key to making Gabbs work

PGLD priced fair for $500 million Gabbs outcome and $2 billion Bam outcome

Ugly Price Chart for Copper & yet Warehouse Stocks are low!
Jim (0:09:27): How is Lithium Mania 2.0 doing in the current resource sector bear market?
Although lithium enriched pegmatites occur around the world, one region blessed with water, a bounty of pegmatites that have only been cursorily explored due to historically low demand for lithium, a well-trained exploration culture, and provincial governments eager to support downstream processing capacity such as refineries that convert lithium concentrates into the battery grade lithium hydroxide required by battery-makers, is eastern Canada. In my June 12, 2022 MIF presentation, Lithium Dawn or Twilight's Last Gleam, I made the case that Lithium Mania 2.0 will be driven by an exploration boom for lithium enriched pegmatites in eastern Canada that will rival the Canadian diamond exploration boom of the 1990s. This exploration-development boom has to get underway right now in order for sufficient lithium mine supply to be on stream by 2030. This means that 2023-2026 will be an intense period for Lithium Mania 2.0 as advanced projects in Australia and the Lithium Triangle are put into production while new, open-pittable pegmatite deposits grading 1%+ Li2O are discovered and delineated. For KRO members only I have launched the KRO Lithium Resources Center which features publicly listed companies with a primary focus on lithium exploration and mine development. The Lithium Supply Center serves as a gateway for additional information information. The Lithium Conversion Tools report contains a Rock Value Matrix which makes it easy to eyeball the value of a tonne of ore based on the lithium grade when presented as lithium oxide (Li2O) and a range of lithium carbonate prices. I've included a snapshot of the rock value cheat sheet below. The MIF presentation is embedded below but you can also visit KMW Blog June 18, 2022 to access the presentation pdf as well as the presentations and interviews for Brunswick Exploration and Avalon Advanced Materials for excellent coverage of the lithium space by Bob Wares and Don Bubar. The lithium part of this KW episode was inspired by news tha California is banning the sale of new gasoline cars by 2035. If this is to become reality the world needs ten time more lithium production than we currently have.
Patriot Battery Metals Corp (PMET-V)






Unrated Spec Value
Corvette Canada - Quebec 3-Discovery Delineation Li
Brunswick Exploration Inc (BRW-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
North Shore Canada - Quebec 1-Grassroots Li

The 3 Lithium Booms during the past decade

Rio Tinto's Lithium Demand Projection if EV replaces ICE Fleet by 2035-2040

Current & Potential Brine Sourced Lithium Supply

Current & Potential Bedrock Sourced Lithium Supply

Imagine another 10-fold growth by 2035

Known Lithium enriched Pegmatites in Quebec

Use a formula to calculate the rock value of a lithium assay or use the Lithium Rock Value Matrix

Cheat Sheet for eyeballing Rock Value of reported bedrock assay grade

Patriot Battery's Corvette already commands a $700 million IPV without even a resource estimate

What will it take for Brunswick's $50 million IPV to expand 10-fold?
Disclosure: JK owns Brunswick Expl; Brunswick and Canalaska are Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated

Posted: Aug 18, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch August 18, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Aug 18, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch August 18, 2022: Key NPK themes in Earnings Call Q&A
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch August 18, 2022: Key NPK themes in Earnings Call Q&A
Jim (0:00:00): Verde Agritech had an hour long earnings call this week during which CEO Chris Veloso attempted to answer over 50 questions submitted by watchers. Can you give us a summary of the sort of questions asked and what kind of answers were given?
Verde Agritech met most of its H1 guidance on the basis of installed capacity, but its H2 guidance more than doubles output which to happen requires at least Phase 1 of Plant 2 becoming operational during the key shipping window of July-October. NPK held an earnings call on Aug 16, 2022 of which 20 minutes was the formal presentation, followed by nearly 50 minutes of Q&A during which Cris Veloso attempted to answer a random series of questions he apparently was reading for the first time. I watched it and have to admit it was often difficult to understand the question and what exactly CV was answering. But I took notes during the live event and extracted a collection of themes which this KW episode is devoted to summarizing. Here are the links to the Presentation Deck and the YouTube Version. The Q&A starts at about the 20 minute mark. For those with a keen interest in NPK I recommend listening to my summary first and then watching the Q&A to see what I missed or got wrong. I do hope CV rethinks how he handles the Q&A. I posted a written summary in the KRO Slack forum for members within an hour. Some complained that CV did not answer questions they had submitted. NPK should set up a system for collecting questions in advance and have somebody bundle them in thematic groups with the most articulate question highlighted for CV to read. And then organize them in a sequence that makes sense. The Q&A format has the pretense of being live but it really is not. CV should not be wasting time reading questions for the first time and trying to figure them out. And reading questions he has already answered. Retail longs will have patience but institutional fund managers will not. As an aside, while KW is free and because NPK is a KRO Favorite so is any related content on KRO, the Slack forum where I provide comments on the fly and try to answer questions is for KRO members only which costs USD $450 per year.
Verde Agritech Ltd (NPK-T)





Favorite
Good Spec Value
Cerrado Verde Brazil - Other 9-Production K

50% off coupon for purchase of Super GreenSand bag at Amazon

Trend in Diesel and KCl Prices

NPK Guidance for 2022

What NPK has to accomplish in H2 to meet its 2022 Guidance
Disclosure: JK Owns shares of Verde Agritech; Verde Agritech is a Good Spec Value rated Favorite

Posted: Aug 11, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch August 11, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Aug 11, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch August 11, 2022: NPK hits revenue and output targets for H1
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch August 11, 2022: NPK hits revenue and output targets for H1
Jim (0:00:00): Nevada Exploration provided an update for its South Grass Valley project in Nevada. Is there still no gold for Wade?
Nevada Exploration Inc may have reached the end of the line with regard to its 100% funded effort to discover a brand new Carlin-type gold district in Nevada. The Jan 31, 2022 financials suggest there is no money left for another hole between #14A and #13A, nor to finish the suspended #13A to target depth. Hopes now turn to the Kelly Creek project optioned 75% to Austin Gold which is threatening to drill Lone Tree style Upper Plate hosted targets generated by the Scorpion rig before NGE pivotted to SGV in 2018. Somebody told Dennis Higgs that the best target sits in a "wetlands" area but he may be afraid of getting his feet wet and may drill an area outside of of designated wetland which would be suitable for a milling facility. This is called condemnation drilling, and with Wade's luck, the Gold Nazi may deliver gold to Austin's drill bit where there isn't supposed to be any, which can either make the groundwater targets really compelling, or pound a stake into the gold in groundwater method. When Intl Enexco tried a decade ago I visited the project and it was bone dry. The Humboldt River meanders through Kelly Creek Basin but is dry most of the year. Enexco did not have the target resolution NGE has today. Wetlands are an issue when you want to dig an open pit in them, which is unlikely at the KCB project because it is under gravel cover. Unless NGE can secure a strong farmout deal with a major for SGV, or KCB delivers a discovery, the best hope will be for Austin Gold to absorb NGE and revive the regional groundwater sampling strategy as a project generator. It is fabulous to find a hidden Lower Plate window altered by a major Carlin-type hydrothermal cell, but drilling through thick gravel cover in search of the sponge horizon that would have soaked up gold requires a $20-$30 million 3-4 year commitment, well beyond the means of a junior.
Nevada Exploration Inc (NGE-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
South Grass Valley United States - Nevada 2-Target Drilling Au
Austin Gold Corp (AUST-NY)






Unrated Spec Value
Kelly Creek United States - Nevada 2-Target Drilling Au

Location of South Grass Valley relative to Major Cortez District Deposits

Section of South Grass Valley Target and proposed hole we wish was drilled in 2018

Topographical View of Deposits in Kelly Creek Basin Area

Where should Austin drill to find gold to mine and no gold to site a mill?
Jim (0:18:51): Endurance Gold reported a new round of drill results for Reliance. Did they support your analysis of the company's drilling strategy?
In KW July 28, 2022 I introduced the idea of studying a junior's drilling strategy for clues about what they are learning from the core well before assays are in hand. This only works if the junior is like Endurance Gold which provides detailed graphics and drill plans that allow one to see what they are trying to demonstrate. In that KW episode I noted that in light of reults for holes #23-24 other holes like #27 made sense as part of an effort to understand the implications of holes #23-24, without telling us what they learned, but the nature of hole #30 made no practical sense unless they say something very encouraging in hole #27. On Aug 8 EDG published results for an additional 4 holes that included #27 whose implications I discussed in Tracker Aug 8, 2022 (members only). Earlier this year I created a cartoon for a conceptual model explaining what EDG thinks it is chasing at Reliance. The latest results prompted me to create a revised conceptual model to illustrate how the latest results, which include structural descriptions, have expanded the scale of the Reliance play. I still haven't switched EDG from Bottom-Fish Status to a Good Spec Value Favorite because we do not yet have that no brainer drill hole that makes the size potential obvious to everybody. But with the latest news the risk that at the end of the day Reliance boils down to nothing more than a gold fart has dropped sharply.
Endurance Gold Corp (EDG-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Reliance Canada - British Columbia 3-Discovery Delineation Au

Old Conceptual Model for Reliance Gold System

Drill Strategy Analysis Graphic from KW July 18, 2022

Drill Results as of August 8, 2022

New Conceptual Model for Reliance Gold System
Jim (0:25:32): Verde Agritech reported results for the first half of 2022. Did they meet their guidance?
Verde Agritech pretty much hit its guided targets for H1 of 2022, but the stock has not taken off because NPK has not yet told the market that Plant 2 is operational. The output during H1 reflected maximum existing capacity, but for NPK to achieve its H2 guidance Plant 2 needs to be operational. NPK indicates this should happen in August for Phase 1, and also indicates Phase 2 which brings capacity to 2.4 million tpa beyond the existing 600,000 tpa will be operational in early Q4. The key shipping window is July through October so it is critical that Plant 2 become operational. The second question is whether or not NPK will have the orders if Plant 2 becomes operational in time to produce the K Forte output projected by the May guidance. KCl cif prices have declined to $800/t from the $1,040-$1,270/t range during H1, but NPK's guidance is still based on CAD $109/t which translates into about USD $510/t KCl, So there is a buffer to meet the revenue and EBITDA guided targets. However, what NPK accomplished in H1 is impressive compared to 2021 and earlier years. The redomiciling from UK to Singapore has been done, though there is still a delay with US brokerage firms being able to trade the stock in the OTC market. The company can't officially talk about its application for NASDAQ listing, but CV seems to think that this may occur in September, by which time hopefully we have heasrd Plant 2 phase 1 is grinding out K Forte. The US listing will be very important because it will expose the stock to the younger generation that trades through platforms like Robin Hood where you can own as little as a single share that is not bought at odd lot prices because of the way the order flow is managed. US institutions interested in an agriculture growth story with an ESG spin and a tech dimension will also come knocking. On Aug 11 NPK was presenting at a Canaccord Growth Conference in Boston where it was the only company with mining component to its growth story. The other thing that could kick in when the US listing is secured is a surge of online Amazon purchases of Super GreenSand. Buying a $10 bag for $38 is not quite the same as buying a Tesla, but it is within financial of reach of Robinhooders. Sales of Super GreenSand are never going to be more than a drop in the bucket for NPK's growth story, but it allows investors to have a tangible connection to the product underpinning their dreams of NPK becoming a $50-$100 stock as it gradually ends up supplying more than 50% of Brazil's potash needs in a soil friendly manner.
Verde Agritech Ltd (NPK-T)





Favorite
Good Spec Value
Cerrado Verde Brazil - Other 9-Production K

NPK Guided and Actual results for 2022 presented in quarters

NPK Guided and Actual results for 2022 presented has halves

Don't just buy NPK stock, buy a bag of Super GreenSand from Amazon!
Disclosure: JK owns Endurance Gold, Nevada Expl, Verde Agritech; Verde Agritech is a Good Spec Value rated Favorite; Endurance and Nevada Expl are Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated

Posted: Aug 5, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch August 5, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Aug 5, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch August 5, 2022 : Time to tip toe back into the resource juniors?
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch August 5, 2022: Time to tip toe back into the resource juniors?
Jim (0:00:00): Do you expect the market for resource juniors to improve in August?
August is traditionally a slow month for resource juniors because investors are still on vacation, results will generally not start flowing until September, and the market just wants to ignore them until everybody is back at work in September. Despite a rough period since April the resource juniors are in fairly good shape based on latest financial filings, and while the number trading below $0.10 continues to rise, at 38% we are still a long way from the 66% bottom of January 2016 and the 54% hit in March 2020. Financially the TSXV resource juniors are in decent shape, provided you can identify the 31% which owe $3 billion compared to the 69% which hold $5.4 billion in working capital. Given the uncertainty over how the Pelosi visit to Taiwan will work out for the relationship between China and the United States, it is best to focus on discovery focused juniors unless you have a long term accumulation strategy for advanced juniors that are sensitive to metal price trends.

Relative traded value of TSXV resource and non-resource listings

TSX & TSXV Resource Listing Price Range Percentages

Working Capital ranges for TSXV Resource Listings

Positive & Negative Working Capital Totals for TSXV Resource Listing Price Ranges

Price Range Breakdown of TSXV Resource Listings

TSXV Resource Listing Market Cap Totals per Price Range
Jim (0:08:04): FPX Nickel published a metallurgy update for the Decar nickel project. What did we learn?
The metallurgical update was a real chore to digest which may be why the stock sagged slightly in its wake. It was really intended for parties on the sidelines, namely producers who might want to develop Decar, and EV end-users such as battery makers and car makers wondering if Decar can provide a reliable and verifiably clean supply of battery grade nickel sulphate. FPX Nickel is a KRO Favorite so the July 28, 2022 Tracker which unpacks the meaning of the met update is unrestricted to the public.
FPX Nickel Corp (FPX-V)





Favorite
Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Decar Canada - British Columbia 6-Prefeasibility Ni

Story Path Chart for FPX Nickel's Decar Project

Long Term Nickel price and Warehouse Stocks Chart
Jim (0:18:18): Tower Resources slumped in July when it published final results for its spring drill program at Rabbit North. What did the market not like?
Tower Resources plans to be drilling again soon in August with a strategy to confirm the new interpretation of the geometry of the Lightning Zone on the Rabbit North project. The July 13 news dropped the stock below $0.20 when the market realized that the initial interpretation was wrong, but I was very pleased with the implications of the new interpretation. I explained why to KRO members in the Bottom-Fish channel of the KRO Slack Forum at the time, and published a members only August 5, 2022 Tracker to remind them why this is a great emerging discovery. This KW audio episode for the general public includes the key graphics.
Tower Resources Ltd (TWR-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Rabbit North Canada - British Columbia 3-Discovery Delineation Cu Au

Syory Path Chart for Tower's Rabbit North Project

Map of Tower's Rabbit North Project

Rabbit North Geology Map and Dominic Lake Gold Grain Dospersal Train

Comparison of Lightning Zone Old and New Geometry Interpretation
Disclosure: JK owns FPX Nickel; FPX Nickel is a Good Spec Value rated Favorite; Tower is Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated

 
 

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