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Kaiser Media Watch Blog - September 1, 2022 to September 30, 2022


KRO Blog Overview
The KRO Blog is where unrestricted content of a time sensitive nature is posted. It includes the Kaiser Media Watch Blog which features content involving John Kaiser produced by third parties such as the Discovery Watch series by HoweStreet.com, interviews by outfits such as Investing News Network, SDLRC related commentary, the KRO Monthly Summaries, and just about anything else John writes that is not intended exclusively for the fee based KRO Membership.


Posted: Sep 30, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch September 30, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Sep 30, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch September 30, 2022: Will scandium's time ever come?
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch September 30, 2022: Will scandium's time ever come?
Jim (0:00:00): What is going on in the scandium world?
Scandium is the ideal marriage partner for aluminum, the third most abundant element in the earth's crust. Niobium is the ideal marriage partner for iron, the fourth most abundant element. When scandium and niobium get alloyed into aluminum and iron respectively, they make these basic metals better in many ways. But unlike niobium, which can achieve 5,000+ ppm concentrations in carbonatite deposits such as Araxa, scandium is a dispersoid, an element whose atoms flee each other. Ironically this property is what makes it such a good alloying agent for aluminum, but the offset is that this limits the ability of geological processes to concentrate the scandium grade, unlike other elements in its crustal abudance range like lead. The result is a high per unit extraction cost which has historically inhibited the incorporation of scandium u=into common materials used by society, in particular aluminum. An additional problem has been that no deposit has achieved a high enough grade to allow scandium to be the primary mined metal, and whose size is large enough to scale up supply if demand grows. That changed in the 2000's when laterite deposits were discovered in Australia's New South Wales which graded 200-600 ppm Sc, compared to the 120 ppm grade of the Zhovty Vodi iron project in Ukraine which the Soviets mined to fabricate their Mig fighter fleet with Al-Sc alloy. John Kaiser's self-coronation as the Original Scandium Bug in 2010 was based on the belief that these deposits would unleash scandium demand if they were simply turned into mines. Build it and they will come. But this assumed a high roller with deep pockets would be willing to risk losing $200 million to make it so. This never happened, and scandium soon was dismissed as trapped in a circular chicken-egg loop. It takes at least 2 years to build and commission a small scale mine such as Nyngan which will be the first ever such primary scandium mine. The flow-sheet involves processes such as autoclaves which have been a nightmare in the development of HPAL based nickel laterite mines. On top of that, the end-user must toll up to use an entirely new material. How confident can the end-user be that the extra inout cost is outweighed by the value of the performance boost? How confident can the end-user be that even if it invests in verifying the end result and tools up to use scandium as an input, that the mine will perform as predicted? Isn't it much smarter not to undertake a binding offtake argeement and let somebody else take the risk? Especially since the mine promoters emphasize the supply scalability of the existing mine? And potential CapEx providers quail at the prospect of a game of chicken where they bankroll the mine on the premise that if you build it they will come, but the end-users play a game of chicken where they refuse to adopt scandium except at a price that wipes out the mine's profit margin. It is so much easier for end-users to carry on without the benefit of Al-Sc alloy as they have always done.

What scandium does for aluminum and the 2 key alloy series for end users

USGS Crustal Abundance Chart ordered by atomic number

Ranking by Crustal Abundance
Jim (0:09:01): What game changing role does Rio Tinto represent for the future of scandium?
In 2020 Rio Tinto announced that it had developed a method for recovering scandium at its Sorel-Tracy smelter northeast of Montreal which has for decades smelted ore from its Lac Tio iron-titanium mine north of Havre Saint-Pierre on the Quebec side of the St Larence Seaway. According to USGS annual supply data Canada has been the second highest global supplier of titanium since 1930. Most of this supply came from Lac Tio which began operation in the 1950s. Titanium has a schizophrenic preception. On the one hand it is associated with cutting edge titanium metals used in aerospace and defence, but on the other hand is its dominant not so exciting usage as the key pigment input for paint as titanium dioxide. My 2017 USGS usage data indicates less than 3% of titanium supply goes into applications more exciting than paint. Most titanium comes from the processing of mineral sands rich in ilmenite or rutile, the key titanium minerals. Lac Tio and the similar Tellnes Mine in Norway are the only igneous in situ sources of titanium dioxide for the pigment industry. In 2021 Canada had faded to fifth place with 6.3% of global supply, mainly from Lac Tio. After the Lac Tio was smelted to produce iron, what was left behind was a slag that was 80% titanium dioxide. The world's paint makers use two processes to make paint, of which the newer one requires a feedstock with rutile equivalent grade, 95% TiO2, compared to 54% TiO2 for the mineral ilmenite. Rio Tinto's titanium slag had a ready market for the older process, but eventually that process shrank down to China which had emerged as the world's biggest producer of titanium at 32% which fed the shrinking base of old process pgment makers. Rio Tinto faced the prospect of its titanium slag turning into a waste product with a disposal cost, and researched how it could upgrade the slag to 95% TiO2 purity. This meant removing all the other stuff and in the process it recognized that the scandium present in the Lac Tio ore at 50-70 ppm ended up into the titanium slag. So Rio Tinto's precoess engineers developed a way to extract the scandium, which was the most valuable of the "impurities" it needed to remove. While the real breakthrough was upgrading the titanium slag to 95% TiO2, Rio Tinto trumpeted the scandium recover breakthrough in mid 2020.The mining rate of Lac Tio wasn;t going to change, so it was easy to calculate the theoretical scandium recovery potential from the slag as 40-50 tpa SC2O3. The reality will be less, but given current estimated by-product supply of 15-25 tpa from a variety of sources, this was a big deal. As part of saving its skin at Sorel-Tracy Rio Tinto had created the opportunity to gradually grow the supply of scandium beyond existing collective sources and tease an offtake market into existence. When John Kaiser realized this in 2020 he saw an emerging solution to the chicken-egg problem and the Original Scandium Bug got quite excited. Alas, Rio Tinto is not a rocket ship company. In mid 2022 Rio Tinto finally disclosed that it was building a 3 tpa pilot plant, with scalability to 9 tpa scandium oxide output. In other words, growing global supply to a likely demand tipping point of 50 tpa would take some time, and resource juniors with advanced scandium projects have not gotten any market traction. So the question, will scandium's time ever come has the same degree of optimism as what is bestowed on the prospect that fusion energy will become a reality. In other words, a cult minority believes scandium's time will come sooner than later.
Rio Tinto Limited (RIO-ASX)






Unrated Spec Value
RTFT - Lac Tio Canada - Quebec 9-Production Ti Fe

Titanium Supply Evolution Chart featuring ilmenite ore equivalent production

2021 Distrubution of Titanium Ore Supply

Rio Tinto's Sorel-Tracy facility and the Titanium Slag upgrading scandium breakthrough
Jim (0:16:35): Imperial Mining Group published a PEA for its Crater Lake scandium project in Quebec. Is this a potential project for Rio Tinto to acquire and develop?
When I did the KW interview I had already done a deep dive on the PEA for Imperial Mining Group's Crater Lake project. I realized that the PEA's positive numbers were based on a fantasy that prices quoted by Chinese vendors for master alloy in one kg units would scale to 2.5 milliom annual kg of master alloy with scandium oxide embedded at a price of $6,400/kg when IPG was selling scandium oxide for $1,500/kg to any other party capable of making master alloy. But I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt so my discussion was sympathetic to the cause of Crater Lake eventually becoming a source of scandium supply. Afterwards while assembling the graphics I came across IPG's June 2022 PDAC presentation on its web site and saw the table of comparable projects. When Peter Cashin first brought Crater Lake's scandium potential to my attention a few years ago he spewed grades in Sc2O3 form he asserted were superior to most of the other scandium projects. I told him everybody else is reporting grades as elemental scandium, so he either start doing the same or puff everybody else's grades up by 154.3% so that they are truly comparable to his Sc2O3 Crater Lake grades. Ignorance is always a problem when one begins something new, but if ignorance persists as one is exposed to knowledge, it becomes to malice. I am apalled and disgusted that Peter Cashin, after plenty of feedback, would list deposit grades in elemental Sc ppm except for his company's deposit which is presented in Sc2O3 ppm. And then declare that "Imperial has the best scandium grades". This is unacceptable.
Imperial Mining Group Ltd (IPG-V)






Unrated Spec Value
Crater Lake Canada - Quebec 5-PEA Sc REM

Ore Schedule for 25 year Mine Life at Crater Lake

Mining Plan and Flow Sheet for Crater Lake scandium mine

Transportation of concentrate that is only 50% of mined ore is a big cost center for Crater Lake

IPG's base case prices assume $6,400/kg Sc2O3 for the vast majority of itys revenues

Imperial Mining has a very puzzling cost allocation for its Sept Iles hydromet facility

IPG's cash flow model hinges on selling Al-Sc master alloy at an implied price of $6,400/kg Sc2O3

IPG's inclusion of rare earths as a recoverable by-product is a Quebec government IQ test

Despite multiple feedback IPG misleads the market about how Crater Lake compares to other advanced scandium projects

After Tax NPV Sensitivity of Crater Lake at different scandium oxide prices

After Tax NPV per Share Sensitivity of Crater Lake at different scandium oxide prices
Jim (0:26:18): Is Niocorp a potential scandium supplier?
Niocorp started off as a niobium story, but mutated into a scandium story, apparently because the future niobium price has no destiny other than what the CBMM family which controls the Araxa mine in Brazil is willing to sell it at. Assuming the Elk Creek recovery and cost assumptions are correct, the FS fails if we use $1,500-$2,000/kg scandium oxide prices. But at $3,675/kg base case price the project works. The price is arbitrary and based on the price of the sale of very small units. I am interested in Mark Smith's belief that this is a valid price, because it makes the company in which I have all my eggs invested extremely valuable. But that quibble aside, what interests me about Niocorp is that the company has done the work to put what is essentially a niobium mine into production at a base case price of $47.kg ferro=niobium (the price reflects the 65% Nb content) which is very reasonabler because that is the current price managed by CBMM. But we are in turbulent times, Brazil especially so because for the past 4 years it has had a wannabe autocrat as president, one whose has studied the methods of the Supreme Putin Poodle, Brazil's economy is run by private businesses which work with whatever power ends up in charges. If Bolsonaro declares a Lula victory a fraud and somehow persuades the military to install him as an autocrat, Brazilian business will carry on as usual. However, forcing Brazil back into a dictatorship may unleash civil unrest.This normally just causes local harm, and beacuse Brazil's economic elite has dispersed affairs, it is hard to harm any family that backs Bolsonaro. But CBMM is different because its Araxa niobium is a tiny pinpoint in Mias Gerais next to a semi derelict resort-spa, and this mine supplies over 85% of the world's niobum. It is a staggering security of supply vulnerabilty which is ignored because everybody assumes that no matter what happens politically in Brazil, business will carry on as usual. If Brazil succumbs to a "black swan" event it may take a long time for disrupted niobium supply to resume feeding the world's needs. During the interim one could expect niobium prices to quadruple and everybody get on side to fund and permit Elk Creek.If we use a sane scandium oxide price like $2,000/kg and run the Ek Creek mine scenario at higher prices, Elk Creek starts looking really good. Such numbers would allow scandium to resume being a by-product rather than the primary product at an unrealistic price. But this in turn would make Niocorp's scandium supply a major factor in stimuilating demand. I hope Brazil won't become a shitshow, but if it does, Niocorp stands to benefit.
Niocorp Developments Ltd (NB-T)






Unrated Spec Value
Elk Creek United States - Nebraska 7-Permitting & Feasibility Nb Sc Ti

Niobium Ferro Price Chart (price refers to 65% niobium content)

Long Term Niobium Supply Evolution Chart

2019 Global Niobium Supply Distribution Chart

Elk Creek Resources and Reserves

Usage of Niobium as of 2019 is mostly steel related

Economic Output of June 2022 Feasibility Study for Elk Creek

Looking at Elk Creek USD NPV at various Sc2O3 prices

Looking at Elk Creek CAD NPV per share at various Sc2O3 prices

Looking at Elk Creek USD NPV with $2,000/kg Sc2O3 at various niobium prices

Looking at Elk Creek CAD NPV per share with $2,000/kg Sc2O3 at various niobium prices
Jim (0:38:09): What does the future look like for Scandium International?
The largest shareholder of SCY kicked out the management team in April and then raised $3.4 million at $0.09 full units with a 5 year expiry which became part of cleaning up the balance sheet so that the company play a waiting game for a buyour by somebody who needs a primary scandium supply that is ready to go inot production if the funds are available. Rio Tinto is the obvious potential bidder, but Rio Tinto is plodding along too slowly at Sorel-Tracy to justify any short term optimism for SCY shareholders. I am currently unhappy with the new SCY management because they diluted the company with a cheap financing with an unnecessarily long warrant which historcially has signaled that a junior will never succeed. But I could live with that. What I have a gard time accepting is that 4 months after kicking out the old management, the web site is unchanged, managament has become unresponsive, and it looks like we were back where we started, expect with people in charge who lack the knowledge of the ousted management and are not exhibiting the piss and vinegar that was so sorely missing with the former management. So I think SCY is fundamentally very undervalued, and the prime target for anybody who wants control of primary, scalable scandium supply, but crippled by the curse "the more things change the more they stay the same". The hope is that the Evensens are simply slow getting started, the fear is that what we see is all that we can expect to get.
Scandium Intl Mining Corp (SCY-T)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Nyngan Australia - New South Wales 8-Construction Sc

Possible Conversation about updating SCY web site

Nyngan Expansion Scenario NPV per share at different scandium oxide prices

Nyngan Expansion Scenario NPV at Different scandium oxide prices
Disclosure: JK owns shares of Scandium Intl; Scandium Intl is Bottom-Fsh Spec Value rated; Imperial Mining and Niocorp are unrated.

Posted: Sep 23, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch September 23, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Sep 23, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch September 23, 2022: The Painmaker is just getting started!
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch September 23, 2022: The Painmaker is just getting started!
Jim (0:00:00): What effect is the latest interest rate hike having on the juniors?
Central banks across the world are now raising interest rates to subdue inflation and keep up with the United States whose dollar is soaring against most currencies. The central banks are fighting a credibility problem which they can only resolve by inflicting extreme pain onto consumers. There is now fear that the central banks will not know when to stop because it will take time for a recession to kill consumption and reduce inflation, but the credibility perception is immediate. The sharp sell-off on Friday reflects the realization that in the perception department asset price trends will be immediately visible and, given the central banks are fighting against a backdrop of geopolitically driven deglobalization, inflation may perists even as unemployment soars. Metal prices have generally retreated except for lithium carbonate which is being propped up by a supply-demand imbalance that will worsen because the shift from ICE to EV is driven both by policy and a strategic decision by carmakers that have put them on a path beyond the point of return which projects well beyond the duration of a global economic downturn unless political blunders lead to a 1930s style depression. Although resource juniors were being hit on the bid, the value traded is not declining. Worst off are juniors with advanced projects. What we are now seeing is tax gain selling of recent winners as investors contemplate a year end house cleaning of losers whose resulting tax losses would be best to utilize against anything still showing a profit.

On Friday the DJIA dropped below the pre-summer rally dip

Painmaker Powel is just getting started

US Dollar is soaring against most currencies which won't bring down inflation

Most metal prices have pulled back sharply from recent peaks

10 year T-Bill Yields are now lower than 2 year Yields

TSXV Resource Traded Value holding up but Index is plunging

TSXV Resource Company Financing Activity has held up well but Q4 may be very weak.
Jim (0:06:56): Why has Galway Metals scaled back its drill rigs at Clarence Stream from six to two rigs?
Galway Metals is still delineating new gold zones at Clarence Stream where the goal is to boost the district scale resource beyond the recent 2.2 million ounces reported for the 3 main zones into the 5-10 million ounce range. The current resource is similar to Marathon Gold's Valentine lake project in Newfoundland which it is developing. When the updated Clarence Stream resource came out earlier this year I created an outcome visualization using the scope and costs defined by Marathon through its feasibility study. The bad news in early September was that the CAD $305 miillion CapEx had soared into the $470-$490 million range. Worse, fear that the inflation battle will create a severe recession has pushed gold down, so Valentine is being socked at both the cost and revenue side of the equation. This has not been good for Galway's stock price and when I reran the OV using the new Valentine CapEx at spot gold the result was not pleasing. However, Galway is not yet building a mine, and the goal will be to deliver a much bigger resource than Valentine. The decision to scale back from 6 rigs operating double shifts to 2 rigs with a single shift was made in light of the deterioraiting funding environment and the brutality with which Bay Street is exploiting juniors with urgent funding needs. The disappointment abotu Galway is that drilling is only focused on the Adrian-Stewart area northwest of the northern end of the SW Deposit, what Galway calls the Golden Triangle. Other areas of the property with much more intense gold in soil anomalies will not be touched this year. The most interesting is what I call the Gabbro Dyke Complex whose geological context is not the same as the intrusion related gold system model Galway is using to generate ounces (ie the flanks of younger intrusions into the older meta-sediments near the Sawyer Brook Fault and its splays. The Gabbro Dyke Complex target needs more surface work to better define what might be controls for gold mineralization and Galway is working on that this year. The drilling done so far in the Golden Triangle area leads Mike Sutton to believe the Stewart and Adrian targets can be connected to the SW deposit to create a super-pit mining scenario. By scaling back the drilling activity Galway is only spending $1.5 million per quarter, which will leave them with $8 million at the start of 2023 and the means to carry on exploration while waiting for the funding enviornment to turn around. Galway Metals will be a great bottom-fishing target in Q4 in light of the resource junior capitulation we are witnessing.
Galway Metals Inc (GWM-V)





Favorite
Fair Spec Value
Clarence Stream Canada - New Brunswick 4-Infill & Metallurgy Au Sb
Marathon Gold Corp (MOZ-T)






Unrated Spec Value
Valentine Lake Canada - Newfoundland 7-Permitting & Feasibility Au
Lion One Metals Ltd (LIO-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Tuvatu Fiji - Other 5-PEA Au

The GLD has now lost 914,000 ounces since the start of 2022

Gold is now only 14% higher than $400 gold in 1980 adjusted for CPI inflation

Galway has only drilled the Golden Traingle target northwest of the SW deposit

The goal is connect the Stewart-Adrian mineralization with the SW Deposit to support a Super Pit

Marathon's CapEx increase for Valentine Lake forces a revision for the Clarence Stream OV

The new OV outcome at $1,644 gold drops this scenario below the NPV must meet or exceed CapEx hurdle

Fortunately Galway will have $8 million left at year end not be at the mercy of Bay Street
Jim (0:14:16): What did we learn from the recent update by Tower Resources on its Rabbit North drill program?
Tower Resources Ltd planned to drill 6-8 holes but only got 5 done due to drill crew competency issues and First Nations representatives being too busy to visit a seasonal creekbed (currently dry) and confirm that there is no archealogical remnants that should be preserved. However, the holes Tower did get done confirm the north-south orienation of the shear structure that hosts the orogenic gold mineralization of the Lightning Zone discovered in late 2021. Followup drilling earlier this year was based on an east-west strike for the zone which yielded confusing intersections until Stu Averill figured out what was going on. Assays won't be available until late October or early November but the project can be drilled year round. One of the holes stepping south of the discovery hole #26 demonstrated that the Lightning Zone has been partly obliterated by an older diorite plug related to the Durand stock to the north. Although this plug has copper and gold mineralization in the 0.1-0.2% and 0.2-0.3 g/t range, its alteration style makes it impervious to the later orogenic fluid flow. On the plus side, this blind diorite plug appears to have a 400 m diameter which makes it interesting as a possible copper-gold open pit target. Averill figures the gold mineralization will reappear where the shear structure exits the plug, but for now Tower is focused on chasing the zone deeper and marching north once the drill locations have received archaelogical clearance.
Tower Resources Ltd (TWR-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Rabbit North Canada - British Columbia 3-Discovery Delineation Cu Au

Drilling confirms reinterpretation of Lightning Zone's strike
Disclosure: JK owns none of the companies mentioned. Galway metals is a Good Spec Value rated KRO Favorite; Tower is Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated.

Posted: Sep 16, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch September 16, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Sep 16, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch September 16, 2022: Reality Check for NPK Guidance
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch September 16, 2022: Reality Check for NPK Guidance
Jim (0:00:00): What was the mood like at the Metals Investor Forum and did anything catch your attention?
The mood at the Metals Investor Forum on Sept 9-10, 2022 was surprisingly upbeat. I've assembled links to my presentation, the panel discussion, and the presentations and backstage interviews for the 5 companies in my session in this KRO Media Watch Comment. To check out all the MIF presentations visit the MIF YouTube Channel. The panel discussion is worth watching. One of the interesting things I picked up was that, although no lithium companies were represented at MIF, behind the scenes "players" are busy positioning vehicles with lithium pegmatite plays. I mention Patriot Battery Metals because this week it raised $20 million flow-through at double the stock price. Headwater Gold is the MIF junior outside my group that caught my attention because it fits my theme of "emerging discoveries".
Headwater Gold Inc (HWG-CSE)






Unrated Spec Value
Katey United States - Oregon 2-Target Drilling Au
Patriot Battery Metals Corp (PMET-V)






Unrated Spec Value
Corvette Canada - Quebec 3-Discovery Delineation Li

Headwater Gold Property Map and Low Sulphidation Epithermal Target Model

Headwater's 100% owned flagship Katey project

Table of Newcrest 75% farm-in terms for 4 Headwater projects

Map of Spring Peak project optioned 75% by Newcrest
Jim (0:14:04): Verde Agritech revised its production guidance for 2022 downward last week. What was that all about?
Verde Agritech has been forced to revert to its January guidance of 700,000 tonnes K Forte output for 2022 which it had revised upwards to 1,000,000 tonnes in May. The diagram below from the Monthly Newsletter - August Edition shows the key months when K Forte gets applied to fields, namely May through September. Given phase 1 of Plant 2 was not commissioned until the end of August it is hard to see how NPK was going to achieve its H2 guided production even if the access road had not developed groundwater problems at 2 critical locations. By reverting to the initial January guidance of 700,000 t for 2022 which CEO Cris Veloso is very confident will be achieved NPK has reset expectations from a grand finale in 2022 to what promises to be a very strong 2023 with Plant 2 completely operational when the planting season resumes in March. The reality check has also had the bonus effect of purging the narrative of this nonsense about paying dividends and doing stock buybacks. When a junior has monstrous growth potential as NPK does, alll cash flow should be banked to pay for that growth.
Verde Agritech Ltd (NPK-T)





Favorite
Good Spec Value
Cerrado Verde Brazil - Other 9-Production K

K Forte Application Schedule

May Guidance compared to revised September Guidance
Jim (0:24:52): Does FPX Nickel have a potential clean solution for Tesla's nickel sulphate supply problem?
FPX Nickel published a long news release it called a scoping study for making battery grade nickel sulphate from an awaruite sources ferro-nickel concentrate which did not provide an monetary figures but went at lengths to explain the process. I've assembled some of the key graphics below. The next stage is to convert 17 tonnes of ore into a 60%-65% ferro-nickel concentrate that will be fed into a hydrometallurgical pilot plant to generate nickel sulphate samples for evaluation by battery makers and their their EV clients.
FPX Nickel Corp (FPX-V)





Favorite
Good Spec Value
Decar Canada - British Columbia 6-Prefeasibility Ni

Nickel Sulphate Options: Mine Site or Off Site Refinery

Nickel Sulphate to EV Supply Chain

Comparison of Flow Sheets for Awaruite Concentrate and Mixed Sulphide Precipitates

Comparative Autoclave Advantages for Awaruite
Disclosure: JK owns FPX Nickel and Verde Agritech; FPX and Verde Agritech are Good Spec Value rated KRO Favorites

Posted: Sep 16, 2022JK: KMW Blog September 16, 2022: MIF Presentation Sept 9, 2022: Emerging Discoveries
Published: Sep 16, 2022MIF: KMW Blog September 16, 2022: MIF Presentation Sept 9, 2022: Emerging Discoveries

Direct YouTube link for John Kaiser MIF Talk

Direct YouTube link for MIF Panel Discussion: When Will Investors Start to Care About (Bullish Fundamentals for) Metals?

PDF Link for September 2022 MIF presentation: Emerging Discoveries
MIF Company Presentation and Backstage Interview Video Links
Arctic Star Exploration Corp (ADD-V)
Presentation

Interview
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-V)
Presentation

Interview
Copper Lake Resources Ltd (CPL-V)
Presentation

Interview
Endurance Gold Corp (EDG-V)
Presentation

Interview
VR Resources Ltd (VRR-V)
Presentation

Interview


Posted: Sep 8, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch September 8, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Sep 8, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch September 8, 2022: Emerging Discovery Plays at MIF
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch September 8, 2022: Emerging Discovery Plays at MIF
Jim (0:00:00): This weekend you will be in Vancouver for the Metals Investor Forum which runs September 9-10. You call the five companies in your session "emerging discoveries". What does that mean and why is that the topic of your presentation?
John Kaiser will be at the Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver September 9-10, 2022. It is a free conference though for in person or virtual participation you must Pre-Register. A PDF Agenda is available. This KW episode explains the rational for making "emerging discoveries" the theme of John's presentation and why the invited companies qualify.

Key Bear Market Discoveries

Historical Chart of Arizona Mining Inc

Outcome Visualization and the Hemrosa-Taylor Discovery
Jim (0:13:59): Arctic Star Exploration is a diamond junior with a property De Beers explored decades ago. Why do you think Diagras is an emerging diamond discovery?
Arctic Star Exploration Corp, headed by CEO Patrick Power and Exploration VP Buddy Doyle, is undertaking a rethink of the Diagras claim block on which De Beers found 22 kimberlites during the 1990s by testing magnetic anomalies. This area adjoins to the northeast of the Ekati and north of the Diavik diamond mines in the Northwest Territories. Although many kimberlites were diamondiferous none were taken to the mini bulk sampling stage and eventually De Beers allowed the Hardy Lake claims to lapse, enabling Arctic Star to stake them in late 2014. By applying contemporary geophysical tools Arctic Star has found 6 new kimberlites of which the Sequoia complex found in 2021 is the most promising; micro diamond results suggest macro grade in the 20-50 cpht range. That grade is too low to support a standalone mine, but with the Ekati and Diavik mines approaching depletion, Sequoia ore could be trucked to either mill if the diamond population does indeed include Type IIa diamonds that deliver a high average carat value. Results for a 2022 winter delineation drill program expected in September will confirm grade and size potential, setting the stage for mini-bulk sampling in 2023.
Arctic Star Exploration Corp (ADD-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Diagras Canada - Northwest Territories 2-Target Drilling D

Story Path for Artic Star's Diagras Diamond Project

Regional Map of Ekati-Diavik area with kimberlite locations

Locations of known kimberlites at Diagras

Location of Sequoia Kimberlite

Comparison of Micro Diamond Distrobution Curves for Jack Pine and Sequoia

Comparison of Micro Diamond Curves with Other Kimberlites

New Arbutus Discovery potentially related to Finlay Pipe
Jim (0:26:36): Canalaska Uranium has been working in the Athabasca Basin for decades. Why do you think West McArthur is an emerging uranium discovery?
Canalaska Uranium Ltd, headed by CEO Cory Belyk and President Peter Dasler, has made a new high grade uranium discovery at its West McArthur project in Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin. The junior has assembled an impressive portfolio of projects in the Athbasca Basin since shifting to uranium exploration in 2004. In recent years the focus has been on the West McArthur project onto which the C10 corridor that hosts Cameco's Fox Lake deposit projects. The corridor branches into two conductors, both of which have been drilled in the past decade. But a new geophysical survey in early 2022 revealed that the C10 South conductor at the unconformity was a hundred metres further north than targeted by past drilling. In mid July Canalaska reported a mineralized interval 100 m below the unconformity that assayed 9 metres of 2.4% U3O8 with grade peaking at 6.1%. The immediate implication is a structurally controlled basement hosted Eagle Point style system within an 8 km structure that is effectively untested. The bluesky resides in the potential for a McArthur River scale zone at the unconformity. Two rigs are now working to assess the structural geometry of this new discovery to set the stage for directional drilling in 2023.
Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
West McArthur Canada - Saskatchewan 3-Discovery Delineation U

Story Path for Canalaska's West McArthur Uranium Project

Map of West McArthur Discovery relative to Fox Lake and McArthur River

Map showing locations of C10 conductors

Drill Core Photo and Section of Discovery Interval

Examples of how basement portion looks for key deposit styles

Outcome Visualization for Arrow Equivalent Discovery Processed at Existing Cameco Mill
Jim (0:32:33): Copper Lake Resources is exploring a polymetallic project which majors and juniors have explored since the sixties. Why do you think Marshall Lake is an emerging zinc-copper-silver discovery?
Copper Lake Resources Ltd, headed by CEO Terry MacDonald and Exploration VP Don Hoy, has undertaken a major rethink of the Marshall Lake project in northern Ontario where the VMS style zinc-copper-silver Billiton deposit was discovered in the sixties. Marshall Lake has seen a lot of exploration by juniors after the majors gave up because of the 2.2 million tonne size of Billiton, but efforts to find extensions or near surface repetitions have failed. Don Hoy did a digital compilation of past work in 2021 and concluded that if anything remains to be found it will be deeper than the 200-300 m limit of past drilling and geophysical surveys. Copper Lake completed a deep IP survey which generated a large IP anomaly at a depth of 300-600 m which the junior tested with two holes in H1 of 2022, neither of which explained the anomaly though one hole encountered multiple high grade copper-zinc-silver intervals in an area to the southeast of the Billiton zone. A bore-hole EM survey revealed several strong off-hole conductors. Copper Lake followed up with a large-loop EM survey which confirmed a 600 m by 300 m conductive center starting at 300 m depth, just beyond the high grade intervals. Copper Lake will resume drilling in Q4 of 2022 once the ground is frozen to test this emerging discovery.
Copper Lake Resources Ltd (CPL-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Marshall Lake Canada - Ontario 3-Discovery Delineation Cu Au Ag Zn

Story Path for Copper Lake's Marshall Lake Polymetallic Discovery

Evolution of the new deep target at Marshall Lake

New Model for why Billiton may be just a stringer zone for a richer VMS pile tilted on its side
Jim (0:37:56): Endurance Gold is exploring a gold property a junior run by a dowser explored for decades. Why do you think Reliance is an emerging gold discovery?
Endurance Gold Corp, headed by CEO Robert Boyd, has an emerging gold discovery at its Reliance project in southwestern British Columbia. Since initiating work in 2020 Endurance has used a combination of shallow RC drilling and core drilling to develop a structural model for this epizonal orogenic gold system which has been traced for at least 1.5 km within the 300 m wide Royal-Treasure Shear corridor. Mineralized intervals grade in the 5-30 g/t gold range. Core drilling during 2022 has revealed that the shallow dipping Eagle Zone has a significant vertical component now recognized as the Eagle South Feeder Zone which opens up the potential to outline a multi-million ounce gold resource at depth. Of 24 core holes so far drilled in 2022 results for only 10 have been reported at the start of September. Drilling is now stepping out to the southeast of the structural corridor to extend the strike of the mineralized system. Reliance can be drilled year round. During 2022 Endurance expanded the project by optioning 100% of the Olympic claims on the premise that similar structural corridors are present to the northeast in a heavily wooded area whose outcrop is also obscured by ash from a recent volcanic eruption. Endurance has successfully used biogenic surveys at Reliance which involve sampling fir needles for arsenic, a key pathfinder, to identify gold trends and plans to apply this approach to the Olympic option.
Endurance Gold Corp (EDG-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Reliance Canada - British Columbia 3-Discovery Delineation Au

Story Path for Endurance Gold's Reilance Gold Project

Location Maps for Reliance Project

Plan and Section for Eagle Area

Emerging Model for mineralization controls at Reliance
Jim (0:42:24): VR Resources is exploring an intrusive complex that was visible as a magnetic anomaly in the James Bay Lowlands decades ago. Why do you think Hecla-Kilmer is an emerging rare earth discovery?
VR Resources Ltd, headed by CEO Michael Gunning, has an emerging rare earth discovery at its Hecla-Kilmer project in the James Bay Lowlands of Ontario. This region has a number of intrusive complexes which VR has been exploring as potential IOCG systems. Hecla-Kilmer is a circular alkaline complex whose hydrothermal breccia zones have yielded copper-gold mineralization, but not yet on a discovery scale. Drilling of carbonatite targets in 2022 yielded long intersections of 1% plus rare earth mineralization which was unusual in that unlike cabonatite systems such as Mountain Pass and Bayan Obo, which are 98%-99% light rare earths, 8%-10% of the Hecla-Kilmer grade was attributable to heavy rare earths. The light rare earths neodymium and praseodymium used for magnets represent 69% of the rock value at current prices while the heavy rare earths used in magnets, dysprosium and terbium, represent 21% for a total of 90%. Heavy rare earths are a future supply problem, even for China which recovers them from very low grade ion adsorption clay deposits. The potential for Hecla-Kilmer to supply both groups of magnet rare earths in meaningful amounts makes it an important new discovery. Depending on the mineralogy the niobium credit could also prove payable. Despite the bleak location it is very close to power and transportation infrastructure.
VR Resources Ltd (VRR-V)






Bottom-Fish Spec Value
Hecla-Kilmer Canada - Ontario 2-Target Drilling Cu Au

Story Path for VR's Hecla-Kilmer Rare Earth-Niobium Project

Location Maps for Hecla-Kilmer

Location of emerging rare earth discovery at Hecla-Kilmer

Rare Earth Supply Evolution Chart

Rare Earth Distribution Charts for major carbonatites Bayan Obo and Mtn Pass

Rare Earth Distribution Chart for Hecla-Kilmer Discovery Hole
Disclosure: JK owns Endurance Gold; Arctic Star, Canalaska Uraninium, Copper Lake, Endurance Gold and VR Resources are Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated

Posted: Sep 2, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch September 2, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Sep 2, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch September 2, 2022: Will the juniors have a fall rally?
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

Podcast Download

Kaiser Watch September 2, 2022: Will the juniors have a fall rally?
Jim (0:00:00): How did the Kaiser Favorites do in August?

KRO 2022 Favorites Index as of September 2, 2022

KRO 2022 Favorites Performance as of September 2, 2022

Comparison of TSXV Resource vs Non-Resource Traded Value since 2009

US Jobs and Unemployment Rate Chart
Jim (0:06:17): Verde Agritech at the moment is your only KRO Favorites winner this year. How do you think it will finish the year?
Verde Agritech Ltd (NPK-T)





Favorite
Good Spec Value
Cerrado Verde Brazil - Other 9-Production K
Jim (0:10:37): Why is FPX Nickel down only 10% compared to the others?
FPX Nickel Corp (FPX-V)





Favorite
Good Spec Value
Decar Canada - British Columbia 6-Prefeasibility Ni

Nickel Price and Warehouse Stock Levels Chart

Global Nickel Supply 71% from Laterites 29% Sulphides
Jim (0:16:33): Is there any common theme that explains the poor performance of your other favorites?
Northwest Copper Corp (NWST-V)





Favorite
Fair Spec Value
Kwanika Canada - British Columbia 5-PEA Au Cu Ag Mo
P2 Gold Inc (PGLD-V)





Favorite
Fair Spec Value
Gabbs United States - Nevada 4-Infill & Metallurgy Au Cu

Copper Price and Warehouse Levels Chart

Very modest copper supply growth during past decade

The IMF better revise its GDP proejctions downward to prevent copper from soaring
Jim (0:21:39): How have your gold focused Favorites done?
Perpetua Gold Corp (PPTA-T)





Favorite
Good Spec Value
Stibnite United States - Idaho 7-Permitting & Feasibility Au Sb
Galway Metals Inc (GWM-V)





Favorite
Fair Spec Value
Clarence Stream Canada - New Brunswick 4-Infill & Metallurgy Au Sb

Gold Price in comparison with $400 gold in 1980 inflation-adjusted

What does the future hold if Powell replicates Volcker?

This chart shows what it took in 1978 to subdue inflation!

The GLD has now lost ounces relative to the start of 2022
Jim (0:25:33): How are your discovery focused Favorites doing?
Aurion Resources Ltd (AU-V)





Favorite
Fair Spec Value
Risti Finland - Other 3-Discovery Delineation Au
Eskay Mining Corp (ESK-V)





Favorite
Fair Spec Value
Eskay Canada - British Columbia 3-Discovery Delineation Au Ag Cu Pb Zn
Snowline Gold Corp (SGD-CSE)






Unrated Spec Value
Rogue Canada - Yukon Territory 3-Discovery Delineation Au
Jim (0:32:07): What sort of juniors are you going to be focused on after Labor Day?
Patriot Battery Metals Corp (PMET-V)






Unrated Spec Value
Corvette Canada - Quebec 3-Discovery Delineation Li
Disclosure: JK owns shares of FPX Nickel and Verde Agritech; Aurion, Eskay Mining, Northwest Copper, and P2 Gold are Fair Spec Value rated Favorites, FPX Nickel, Perpetua and Verde Agritech are Good Spec Value rated Favorites

 
 

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