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Kaiser Watch September 16, 2022: Reality Check for NPK Guidance

Posted: Sep 16, 2022JK: Kaiser Watch September 16, 2022 with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser
Published: Sep 16, 2022KRO: Kaiser Watch September 16, 2022: Reality Check for NPK Guidance
Kaiser Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by KaiserResearch.com with Jim Goddard and John Kaiser discussing the junior resource sector. The show has three parts: the first is a general topic, the second discusses developments involving the KRO Favorites which as of January 1, 2022 are no longer exclusive to KRO members, and the third is a peek inside the members only KRO Bottom-Fish Workshop. KRO is transitioning into a Do-It-Yourself research platform that covers all Canadian and Australian resource listings and which also features a Bottom-Fish Workshop where John Kaiser highlights juniors with solvable "missing pieces". Companies that graduate from the Workshop may become part of the Annual Favorites collection whose profiles and related commentary are unrestricted for non-members. Visit the KRO Favorites Dashboard for quick access to all the unrestricted Favorites related content. KRO is not sponsored or compensated directly or indirectly by public companies. The business model is based solely on membership fees in the form of a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership that at some point will increase substantially to reflect KRO's shift to a research platform. However, when the change happens active members will be grandfathered to renew indefinitely at the current rate provided they maintain a continuous paid membership. Kaiser Watch is available at Kaiser Research YouTube and as a Podcast downloadable from KaiserResearch.com. Each episode will be made available through the publication of a Kaiser Media Watch blog report which will provide links to specific questions and include supplementary graphics. All episodes will be archived at Kaiser Watch.

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Kaiser Watch September 16, 2022: Reality Check for NPK Guidance
Jim (0:00:00): What was the mood like at the Metals Investor Forum and did anything catch your attention?
The mood at the Metals Investor Forum on Sept 9-10, 2022 was surprisingly upbeat. I've assembled links to my presentation, the panel discussion, and the presentations and backstage interviews for the 5 companies in my session in this KRO Media Watch Comment. To check out all the MIF presentations visit the MIF YouTube Channel. The panel discussion is worth watching. One of the interesting things I picked up was that, although no lithium companies were represented at MIF, behind the scenes "players" are busy positioning vehicles with lithium pegmatite plays. I mention Patriot Battery Metals because this week it raised $20 million flow-through at double the stock price. Headwater Gold is the MIF junior outside my group that caught my attention because it fits my theme of "emerging discoveries".
Headwater Gold Inc (HWG-CSE)

Unrated Spec Value
Katey United States - Oregon 2-Target Drilling Au
Patriot Battery Metals Corp (PMET-V)

Unrated Spec Value
Corvette Canada - Quebec 3-Discovery Delineation Li

Headwater Gold Property Map and Low Sulphidation Epithermal Target Model

Headwater's 100% owned flagship Katey project

Table of Newcrest 75% farm-in terms for 4 Headwater projects

Map of Spring Peak project optioned 75% by Newcrest
Jim (0:14:04): Verde Agritech revised its production guidance for 2022 downward last week. What was that all about?
Verde Agritech has been forced to revert to its January guidance of 700,000 tonnes K Forte output for 2022 which it had revised upwards to 1,000,000 tonnes in May. The diagram below from the Monthly Newsletter - August Edition shows the key months when K Forte gets applied to fields, namely May through September. Given phase 1 of Plant 2 was not commissioned until the end of August it is hard to see how NPK was going to achieve its H2 guided production even if the access road had not developed groundwater problems at 2 critical locations. By reverting to the initial January guidance of 700,000 t for 2022 which CEO Cris Veloso is very confident will be achieved NPK has reset expectations from a grand finale in 2022 to what promises to be a very strong 2023 with Plant 2 completely operational when the planting season resumes in March. The reality check has also had the bonus effect of purging the narrative of this nonsense about paying dividends and doing stock buybacks. When a junior has monstrous growth potential as NPK does, alll cash flow should be banked to pay for that growth.
Verde Agritech Ltd (NPK-T)

Good Spec Value
Cerrado Verde Brazil - Other 9-Production K

K Forte Application Schedule

May Guidance compared to revised September Guidance
Jim (0:24:52): Does FPX Nickel have a potential clean solution for Tesla's nickel sulphate supply problem?
FPX Nickel published a long news release it called a scoping study for making battery grade nickel sulphate from an awaruite sources ferro-nickel concentrate which did not provide an monetary figures but went at lengths to explain the process. I've assembled some of the key graphics below. The next stage is to convert 17 tonnes of ore into a 60%-65% ferro-nickel concentrate that will be fed into a hydrometallurgical pilot plant to generate nickel sulphate samples for evaluation by battery makers and their their EV clients.
FPX Nickel Corp (FPX-V)

Good Spec Value
Decar Canada - British Columbia 6-Prefeasibility Ni

Nickel Sulphate Options: Mine Site or Off Site Refinery

Nickel Sulphate to EV Supply Chain

Comparison of Flow Sheets for Awaruite Concentrate and Mixed Sulphide Precipitates

Comparative Autoclave Advantages for Awaruite
Disclosure: JK owns FPX Nickel and Verde Agritech; FPX and Verde Agritech are Good Spec Value rated KRO Favorites

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