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Outcome Visualization Project as of Mar 28, 2024: NuLegacy: Red Hill - 3,300 tpd UG Goldrush Two |
Project: | Red Hill | Location: | United States | Stage: | 2-Target Drilling |
Net Interest: | 98% WI | Uncapped NSR: | 3.0% | Target Metals: | Gold |
OV Project ID: | 1000023 | OVP Posted: | 5/22/2020 | OVP Retired: |
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Current OV ID: | 1000066 | Current OV Confirmed: | 5/22/2020 | Visualizer: | JK |
Issued 636,573,953 |
Price $0.010 |
Working Capital $214,256 |
Key People: Albert J. Matter (CEO), Alexander J. Davidson (Chair), Xavier Wenzel (CFO), |
Diluted 825,476,613 |
Insiders 2.6% |
As of 12/31/2023 |
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Visualized Outcome: NuLegacy: Red Hill - 3,300 tpd UG Goldrush Two |
NuLegacy spent over $20 million from 2012 onwards trying to find high grade Carlin type zones in addition to the low grade oxide Iceberg zone. In late 2017 NUG brought former Barrick exploration people including Ed Cope, Mark Bradley and Charles Weakly on board in an effort to salvage the play. Their work developed the Rift Anticline hypothesis to the west of all the drilling activity, an area covered by younger basalts which has never been drilled because it was assumed the Lower Plate rocks prospective for Carlin type mineralization. The ex Barrick team which worked on Goldrush relogged all the core to the west and developed a stratigraphic model they were able to map CSAMT geophysical data. A CSAMT survey over the barren rocks to the west developed a structural model very similar in scale and nature to the Goldrush deposit to the northwest that Barrick is developing as an underground mine expected to produce 450,000 oz per year at an AISC of $665 per oz. Barrick completed a PFS for Goldrush but has never disclosed cost details. However, from the technical reports it has filed for the Cortz JV operation which includes UG mining refractory sulphides similar to those that define the Goldrush deposit (25.2 million tonnes of 10.6 g/y gold), which are trucked to the Goldstrike roaster for processing, it is possible to come up with likely costs. This OV imagines a clone of Goldrush One, what it would cost to develop and operate, and what it would be worth at the current gold price. |
Visualized Outcome Summary: NuLegacy: Red Hill - 3,300 tpd UG Goldrush Two |
Deposit Scenario: 25,200,000 t @ 10.60 g/t Gold |
Mining Scenario: Underground 3,300 tpd 20.9 yrs, CapEx $1.0 billion, SustCapEx $300.0 million, OpEx $141.00/t (USD) |
LOM Payable: 7.7 million oz gold |
Economic Outcome (USD): Revenue Model at OV designated Metal Prices |
| Annual Average | Life of Mine (LOM) | LOM Stats |
Recoverable Revenue: | $827,170,074 | $17,305,675,275 | $687/t ore Recoverable Value: |
Smelter/Transport Costs: | ($8,271,701) | ($173,056,753) | 1.0% of Recoverable Revenue |
Gross Payable Revenue: | $818,898,373 | $17,132,618,522 | 99.0% of Recoverable Revenue |
Royalties: | ($24,566,951) | ($513,978,556) | 3.0% of Gross Payable Revenue |
Net Payable Revenue: | $794,331,422 | $16,618,639,967 | 96.0% of Recoverable Revenue |
Mining Cost: | ($104,791,500) | ($2,192,400,000) | 57% of OpEx - $87.00/t ore |
Processing Cost: | ($57,816,000) | ($1,209,600,000) | 31% of OpEx - $48.00/t ore |
Other Cost: | ($7,227,000) | ($151,200,000) | 4% of OpEx - $6.00/t ore |
Sustaining Cost: | ($14,285,714) | ($300,000,000) | 8% of OpEx - $11.90/t ore |
Total Operating Cost: | ($184,120,214) | ($3,853,200,000) | 23% of Net Payable Revenue - OpEx - $152.90/t ore |
Pre-Tax Cash Flow: | $610,211,208 | $12,765,439,967 | 77% of Net Payable Revenue - $506.57/t ore |
Taxes: | ($139,772,696) | ($2,935,477,272) | 23% of Pre-Tax Cash Flow - $116.49/t ore
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After-Tax Cash Flow: | $470,438,512 | $9,829,962,695 | 59% of Net Payable Revenue - $390.08/t ore |
Note: Concentrate transport costs, smelter treatment costs and retention are subtracted from recoverable revenue to get gross payable revenue to which the uncapped royalty rate for the project is applied. The annual average of LOM sustaining cost is expensed as an annual operating cost. Annual average figures reflect full production years. |
Economic Outcome (USD): Royalty Model for 1% NSR at OV designated Metal Prices |
Mine Life: | 21 years | Startup | NPV 5% | NPV 10% | NPV 15% |
Annual Avg NSR: | $7,943,314 | Now | $96,779,764 | $62,377,348 | $43,572,834 |
LOM NSR: | $166,186,400 | 2028 | $79,620,951 | $42,604,568 | $24,912,909 |
Economic Outcome - Discount Rate: 10.5% - CAD AT NPV: $3.6 billion - Good Speculative Value |
Gross Rock Value (USD/t): | $755 | Recoverable Rock Value: | $687 | Payable Rock Value: | $680 |
LOM Net Payable Revenue (USD): | $16,618,639,967 | LOM PT Cash Flow (USD): | $12,765,439,967 | LOM AT Cash Flow (USD): | $9,829,962,695 |
USD Pre-Tax NPV: | $3,702,751,974 | Pre-Tax IRR: | 61.0% | Pre-Tax Payback: | 1.6 |
USD After-Tax NPV: | $2,667,156,162 | After-Tax IRR: | 47.8% | After-Tax Payback: | 2.1 |
CAD Fair Spec Value Low: | $36,139,966 | CAD Fair Spec Value High: | $90,349,915 | CAD Implied Project Value: | $8,423,231 |
Price Target if Visualized Outcome delivered by Expl-Dev Cycle without dilution: CAD $4.29 |
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Fair Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $0.04 - $0.11 |
MSV (Market Cycle S Curve): Market Speculative Value represents the typical market pricing pattern of a new discovery as it moves through its exploration-development cycle. The irrational pricing behavior of the yellow channel contrasts with the fair speculative value of the blue channel as defined by the rational speculation model because during the pre-economic study stages there is great uncertainty about how big the discovery will turn out. |
Fair Speculative Value Ladder
USD OV NPV | CAD OV NPV | Exch Rate | Diluted | Net Interest |
$2,667,156,162 | $3,613,996,600 | 1.3550 | 825,476,613 | 98.00% |
Project Stage | Uncertainty Range | CAD FSV Range | CAD FSV per Share Range | CAD MSV per Share Range |
Grassroots |
0.5% - 1.0% |
$18,069,983 - $36,139,966 |
$0.02 - $0.04 |
$0.04 - $0.11 |
Target Drilling |
1.0% - 2.5% |
$36,139,966 - $90,349,915 |
$0.04 - $0.11 |
$0.11 - $0.21 |
Discovery Delineation |
2.5% - 5.0% |
$90,349,915 - $180,699,830 |
$0.11 - $0.21 |
$0.21 - $3.22 |
Infill & Metallurgy |
5% - 10% |
$180,699,830 - $361,399,660 |
$0.21 - $0.43 |
$2.15 - $4.29 |
PEA |
10% - 25% |
$361,399,660 - $903,499,150 |
$0.43 - $1.07 |
$1.07 - $3.22 |
Prefeasibility |
25% - 50% |
$903,499,150 - $1,806,998,300 |
$1.07 - $2.15 |
$1.07 - $2.15 |
Permitting & Feasibility |
50% - 75% |
$1,806,998,300 - $2,710,497,450 |
$2.15 - $3.22 |
$1.07 - $2.15 |
Construction |
75% - 100% |
$2,710,497,450 - $3,613,996,600 |
$3.22 - $4.29 |
$2.15 - $3.22 |
Production |
100% |
$3,613,996,600 |
$4.29 |
$4.29 - $5.36 |
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Market Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $0.11 - $0.21 |
Warning: while the market spec value (S-Curve) and fair spec value channels presented in project value terms track the evolving expected ultimate outcome value, when presented in stock price terms the expected stock prices are subject to dilution through future equity financings or project interest farmouts. |
Alternative Metal Price Scenarios |
| Metal 1 | Metal 2 | Metal 3 | Metal 4 |
| Gold |
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Spot: | $2,214 /oz |
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| OV Assigned: | $2,214 /oz |
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| Pessimistic: | $1,300 /oz |
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| Optimistic: | $2,300 /oz |
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| Fantasy: | $3,000 /oz |
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| Note: for Metal 1 pessimistic, optimistic and fantasy price scenarios, OV assigned prices are used for Metals 2-4 |
Economic Outcomes with Alternative Metal Price Scenarios |
| USD PT NPV | USD PT IRR | USD AT NPV | USD AT IRR | AT Payback yrs |
Spot: | $3,702,751,974 | 61.0% | $2,667,156,162 | 47.8% | 2.1 |
OV Assigned: | $3,702,751,974 | 61.0% | $2,667,156,162 | 47.8% | 2.1 |
Pessimistic: | $1,225,977,452 | 28.1% | $808,336,883 | 22.6% | 4.3 |
Optimistic: | $3,934,759,124 | 64.1% | $2,841,277,528 | 50.1% | 2.0 |
Fantasy: | $5,830,906,295 | 89.2% | $4,264,335,980 | 69.0% | 1.4 |
Fair Speculative Value for Alternative Metal Price Scenarios |
Stage: Target Drilling - 1.0% - 2.5% |
| CAD AT NPV | CAD Target Price | CAD FSV Range | CAD FSV per Share Range | CAD MSV per Share Range |
Spot: | $3,613,996,600 | $4.29 | $36,139,966 - $90,349,915 | $0.04 - $0.11 | $0.11 - $0.21 |
OV Assigned: | $3,613,996,600 | $4.29 | $36,139,966 - $90,349,915 | $0.04 - $0.11 | $0.11 - $0.21 |
Pessimistic: | $1,095,296,477 | $1.30 | $10,952,965 - $27,382,412 | $0.01 - $0.03 | $0.03 - $0.07 |
Optimistic: | $3,849,931,051 | $4.57 | $38,499,311 - $96,248,276 | $0.05 - $0.11 | $0.11 - $0.23 |
Fantasy: | $5,778,175,253 | $6.86 | $57,781,753 - $144,454,381 | $0.07 - $0.17 | $0.17 - $0.34 |
Disclaimer: A visualized outcome is one of many possible outcomes for an exploration project as it moves through the 9 stages of the exploration-development cycle from grassroots to a producing mine with failure as an outcome at any point along the way. The range of possible outcomes for the physical nature of a deposit shrinks after delivery of an initial 43-101 resource estimate. While the nature of the deposit constrains the range of mining scenarios, the cost assumptions will vary as the project moves through the feasibility demonstration stages of the cycle, which affects the economic value of the final outcome. This economic value will also vary according to the prices of the metals targeted for extraction which may change during the years it takes for a project to become a mine. An outcome visualization is thus a compilation of best guess assumptions for the key variables that drive the discounted cash flow model, the basis for assigning an economic value to a mine. An OV is not intended as a prediction, but rather as a framework that allows the incorporation of new information generated by the exploration-development cycle for the project into a valuation model on an ongoing, dynamic basis. |
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