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Keith Bradsher of the New York Times makes it official: the world can no longer rely on China for its growth strategies. This has been obvious to commodity producers for the past year, with iron enjoying iconic status as the example of excessive supply mobilization just in time for softening demand. It has been apparent for some time that China's reliance on investment for its GDP was unsustainable. The $600 billion China mobilized for infrastructure development in 2009 created a V-shaped commodity recovery that post-poned the current supply glut for several years. China is trying to transition to a more consumption based economy, which could still fuel 5% plus GDP growth, though it will constitute less intensive demand for metals. Emerging market economies that rely on raw material exports to China such as Brazil and Russia are already suffering from declining growth. But even bigger trouble looms for those countries which have relied on Chinese investment to develop their output capacity. The World According to China Interactive Graphic shows which countries have the greatest dependency; it could double as a roadmap for geopolitically based security of supply risks. The alarm Bradsher is sounding that is fairly new is the much broader assumption by the rest of the world that greater goods and services consumption would expand Chinese demand for consumer related goods. Lowered expectations in that regard will hit exporters such as Germany especially hard. The insert Why China is Rattling the World reveals the extent that developed economies rely on trade with China. It also has some good graphics for the Shanghai Composite and different estimates of Chinese GDP growth during the past decade. Articles like this are part of a narratological shift back to America as the center of the global economy. The United States chose after the 2008 Crash to eshew fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure renewal in favor of Tea Party influenced austerity policies. The gold bug narrative has been colored by an end-times angst whch encouraged pushing infrastructure investment into a future where it might not turn out to be necessary. But with the narrative turning towards America as the "last man standing" being dragged down by a floundering China, the political will is evolving to embark on the rebuilding of America. From abroad the Republican primary competition may look like a end-times farce, but from within the United States Donald Trump is understood as a Wrecking Ball who is single-handedly saving the Republican Party from self-immolation by taking every bad Tea Party idea and ratcheting it up to a ridiculous extreme that forces the other presidential contenders to either take themselves out of the running for the voting public by trying to trump the Trump with a more outlandish declaration, or wiping out their primary victory chances by alienating Tea Party extremists with sensible positions. After Wrecking Ball Trump has demolished all the contenders who would be bad for America, he will launch himself as an independent in order to fragment the Republican vote. The United States will get another four years of a Democratic president while the Republican Party claws its way back from the black hole into which Trump is guiding all the bad ideas onto which it has latched. Democrats are now starting to watch Fox News for the spectacle of Fox Trojans coping with the emanations of the Trump Horse they allowed to wheel itself into their sanctuary.
