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Discovery Watch is a weekly 15-30 minute audio show produced by HoweStreet.com where Jim Goddard interviews John Kaiser about resource juniors with projects that have caught John's attention. The projects will not be limited to companies he has covered through the Spec Value Rating System. Jim and John will periodically circle back to review the projects and if necessary close them out as no longer worth watching. Check out the catalog of KRO Free Stuff. KRO offers a USD $450 Annual Individual Membership. This Discovery Watch session is available via YouTube or Podcast.
FPX Nickel is a wonderful opportunity for retail investors to learn how to value resource plays because the ability of the stock to move into a fair speculative value range of $1.50-$3.00 based on the economic value projected at the base case price of $7.75/lb nickel by the 2020 PEA requires an institutional audience to embrace the company. That has not yet happened because FPX proposes to mine the lowest grade nickel deposit in history and is targeting a natural stainless steel mineral that has never before been mined. What keeps the institutions on the sidelines is the fact that the viability of Decar hinges on the metallurgy behind the flow-sheet which has only been tested at a bench scale for a project that has world class scale. FPX is conducting larger scale tests of the flow-sheet as part of the $15 million PFS expected to be done by the end of 2022. These metallurgical results are expected in August 2021. If they support the PEA assumptions, we can expect institutions to take a much closer look at FPX, especially in light of the carbon sequestration work FPX is doing on the tailings which may make this project carbon neutral. The value upside and the ESG credentials will bring institutions into FPX Nickel and drive the stock into the $1.50-$3.00 range where the stock will trade ahead of a buyout in the $5-$10 range if the PFS delivers an outcome similar to that of the PEA. The graphics above and below are variations of the same thing, the after-tax net present value calculated at 5% and 10% discount rates at different nickel prices. The chart above expresses the outcomes in CAD per share terms (228 million fully diluted is a stable number because with $21 million working capital FPX has more than it needs to deliver the PFS), while the one below expresses it in USD absolute numbers.
Disclosure: JK owns FPX Nickel and Scandium Intl; FPX Nickel is a Good Spec Value rated Favorite, Scandium Intl and P2 Gold are Bottom-Fish Spec Value rated Favorites
