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Outcome Visualization Project as of Apr 23, 2024: Canalaska:- West McArthur as McArthur River Clone
Project:	West McArthur	Location:	Canada	Stage:	3-Discovery Delineation
Net Interest:	83.3% WI	Uncapped NSR:	8.3%	Target Metals:	Uranium
OV Project ID:	1000009	OVP Posted:	5/17/2016	OVP Retired:
Current OV ID:	1000035	Current OV Confirmed:	3/8/2024	Visualizer:	JK

Canalaska Uranium Ltd (CVV-V)
Profile	Search	Web Site	Tree	Forum	SEDAR	Quote	IPV

Issued 153,618,000	Price $0.600	Working Capital $15,076,000	Key People: Cory Belyk (CEO), Thomas Jr Graham (Chair), Harry Chan (CFO), Nathan Bridge (VP EX), Dianne M. Szigety (Sec),
Diluted 212,149,000	Insiders 3.0%	As of 1/31/2024

Visualized Outcome: Canalaska - West McArthur as McArthur River Clone
Canalaska Uranium Ltd announced a basement hosted intersection on July 15, 2022 while testing a conductor southwest of the 42 Zone which has sandstone hosted mineralization related to the structure that hosts the Fox Lake zone owned by Cameco and Orano. The Fox Lake deposits are about 400,000 tonnes of 7.99% U3O8. An OV created for West McArthur in 2016 visualized a McArthur River clone and used costs provided by Cameco in a 2012 43-101 report. McArthur River is mined at only 200 tpd because it is about 1 million tonnes of 16% and located at the unconformity which creates difficult mining conditions that entail very high costs. In February 2024 Canalaska announced a substantial very high grade intersection at the unconformity after struggling during 2023 to define the geometry of the basement hosted mineralization encountered in 2022. The unconformity intersection will simplify delineation drilling of what may prove to be a "string of pearls" similar to the McArthur egress-style zones. This OV has been updated with an across the board 25% cost escalation of the costs used in 2016.
Source Note: The costs used in the original 2016 OV were based on CAD costs used by Cameco for Cigar Lake and McArthur River. For the 2024 OV update all costs have been increased by 25%.
Visualized Outcome Summary: Canalaska - West McArthur as McArthur River Clone
Deposit Scenario: 1,062,200 t @ 16.46% Uranium
Mining Scenario: Underground 200 tpd 14.6 yrs, CapEx $1.9 billion, SustCapEx $649.0 million, OpEx $6,753.75/t (USD), AISC $9,111.90/t (USD)
LOM Payable: 380.0 million lb U3O8 uranium
Economic Value (after-tax): IRR 53.5%, Payback 1.9 yrs, NPV at 8.0% - USD $5,942,101,782, Future Price/sh: CAD $31.90
Economic Outcome - Discount Rate: 8.0% - CAD AT NPV: $8.1 billion - Good Speculative Value
Gross Rock Value (USD/t):	$32,296	Recoverable Rock Value:	$31,876	Payable Rock Value:	$31,766
LOM CapEx & Sustaining Cost:	$2,504,824,106	LOM Operating Cost:	$7,173,831,082	AISC per tonne:	$9,111.90
LOM Net Payable Revenue (USD):	$30,958,446,530	LOM PT Cash Flow (USD):	$23,242,193,551	LOM AT Cash Flow (USD):	$14,248,409,070
USD Pre-Tax NPV:	$10,761,719,867	Pre-Tax IRR:	87.4%	Pre-Tax Payback:	1.1
USD After-Tax NPV:	$5,942,101,782	After-Tax IRR:	53.5%	After-Tax Payback:	1.9
CAD Fair Spec Value Low:	$203,115,894	CAD Fair Spec Value High:	$406,231,788	CAD Implied Project Value:	$152,826,750
Price Target if Visualized Outcome delivered by Expl-Dev Cycle without dilution: CAD $31.90
Economic Outcome (USD): Revenue Model at OV designated Metal Prices
		Annual Average	Life of Mine (LOM)	LOM Stats
Recoverable Revenue:		$2,326,963,941	$33,858,919,148	$31,876/t ore Recoverable Value:
Smelter/Transport Costs:		($8,023,203)	($116,743,094)	0.3% of Recoverable Revenue
Gross Payable Revenue:		$2,318,940,738	$33,742,176,054	99.7% of Recoverable Revenue
Royalties:		($191,312,611)	($2,783,729,524)	8.3% of Gross Payable Revenue
Net Payable Revenue:		$2,127,628,127	$30,958,446,530	91.4% of Recoverable Revenue
Mining Cost:		($240,254,516)	($3,495,867,769)	45% of OpEx - $3,291.16/t ore
Processing Cost:		($213,559,570)	($3,107,438,017)	40% of OpEx - $2,925.47/t ore
Other Cost:		($32,033,935)	($466,115,702)	6% of OpEx - $438.82/t ore
Sustaining Cost:		($42,663,156)	($639,947,341)	8% of OpEx - $602.47/t ore
Total Operating Cost:		($528,984,293)	($7,716,252,978)	25% of Net Payable Revenue - OpEx - $7,264.41/t ore
Pre-Tax Cash Flow:		$1,598,643,834	$23,242,193,551	75% of Net Payable Revenue - $21,881.18/t ore
Taxes:		($618,653,733)	($8,993,784,482)	39% of Pre-Tax Cash Flow - $8,467.13/t ore
After-Tax Cash Flow:		$979,990,102	$14,248,409,070	46% of Net Payable Revenue - $13,414.05/t ore
Note: Concentrate transport costs, smelter treatment costs and retention are subtracted from recoverable revenue to get gross payable revenue to which the uncapped royalty rate for the project is applied. The annual average of LOM sustaining cost is expensed as an annual operating cost. Annual average figures reflect full production years.
Economic Outcome (USD): Royalty Model for 1% NSR at OV designated Metal Prices
Mine Life:	15 years	Startup	NPV 5%	NPV 10%	NPV 15%
Annual Avg NSR:	$21,276,281	Now	$205,944,875	$145,036,871	$107,161,261
LOM NSR:	$309,584,465	2030	$153,679,237	$81,869,532	$46,328,770

Fair Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $0.80 - $1.59
MSV (Market Cycle S Curve): Market Speculative Value represents the typical market pricing pattern of a new discovery as it moves through its exploration-development cycle. The *irrational* pricing behavior of the yellow channel contrasts with the *fair speculative value* of the blue channel as defined by the rational speculation model because during the pre-economic study stages there is great uncertainty about how big the discovery will turn out.

Fair Speculative Value Ladder
USD OV NPV	CAD OV NPV	Exch Rate	Diluted	Net Interest
$5,942,101,782	$8,124,635,766	1.3673	212,149,000	83.29%
Project Stage	Uncertainty Range	CAD FSV Range	CAD FSV per Share Range	CAD MSV per Share Range
Grassroots	0.5% - 1.0%	$40,623,179 - $81,246,358	$0.16 - $0.32	$0.32 - $0.80
Target Drilling	1.0% - 2.5%	$81,246,358 - $203,115,894	$0.32 - $0.80	$0.80 - $1.59
Discovery Delineation	2.5% - 5.0%	$203,115,894 - $406,231,788	$0.80 - $1.59	$1.59 - $23.92
Infill & Metallurgy	5% - 10%	$406,231,788 - $812,463,577	$1.59 - $3.19	$15.95 - $31.90
PEA	10% - 25%	$812,463,577 - $2,031,158,942	$3.19 - $7.97	$7.97 - $23.92
Prefeasibility	25% - 50%	$2,031,158,942 - $4,062,317,883	$7.97 - $15.95	$7.97 - $15.95
Permitting & Feasibility	50% - 75%	$4,062,317,883 - $6,093,476,825	$15.95 - $23.92	$7.97 - $15.95
Construction	75% - 100%	$6,093,476,825 - $8,124,635,766	$23.92 - $31.90	$15.95 - $23.92
Production	100%	$8,124,635,766	$31.90	$31.90 - $39.87


Market Speculative Value Stock Price Range: CAD $1.59 - $23.92
Warning: while the market spec value (S-Curve) and fair spec value channels presented in project value terms track the evolving expected ultimate outcome value, when presented in stock price terms the expected stock prices are subject to dilution through future equity financings or project interest farmouts.

Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
	Metal 1	Metal 2	Metal 3	Metal 4
	Uranium
Spot:	$89.00 /lb U3O8
OV Assigned:	$89.00 /lb U3O8
Pessimistic:	$50.00 /lb U3O8
Optimistic:	$125.00 /lb U3O8
Fantasy:	$200.00 /lb U3O8
Note: for Metal 1 pessimistic, optimistic and fantasy price scenarios, OV assigned prices are used for Metals 2-4

Economic Outcomes with Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
	USD PT NPV	USD PT IRR	USD AT NPV	USD AT IRR	AT Payback yrs
Spot:	$10,761,719,867	87.4%	$5,942,101,782	53.5%	1.9
OV Assigned:	$10,761,719,867	87.4%	$5,942,101,782	53.5%	1.9
Pessimistic:	$3,469,713,767	35.8%	$1,712,738,244	22.7%	4.2
Optimistic:	$17,492,802,421	134.7%	$9,846,129,663	81.0%	1.2
Fantasy:	$31,515,891,076	233.1%	$17,979,521,083	138.1%	0.7

Fair Speculative Value for Alternative Metal Price Scenarios
Stage: Discovery Delineation - 2.5% - 5.0%
	CAD AT NPV	CAD Target Price	CAD FSV Range	CAD FSV per Share Range	CAD MSV per Share Range
Spot:	$8,124,635,766	$31.90	$203,115,894 - $406,231,788	$0.80 - $1.59	$1.59 - $23.92
OV Assigned:	$8,124,635,766	$31.90	$203,115,894 - $406,231,788	$0.80 - $1.59	$1.59 - $23.92
Pessimistic:	$2,341,827,001	$9.19	$58,545,675 - $117,091,350	$0.23 - $0.46	$0.46 - $6.90
Optimistic:	$13,462,613,089	$52.85	$336,565,327 - $673,130,654	$1.32 - $2.64	$2.64 - $39.64
Fantasy:	$24,583,399,177	$96.51	$614,584,979 - $1,229,169,959	$2.41 - $4.83	$4.83 - $72.39

Detailed Visualized Outcome (KRO Members Only)

VU = Very Unsure	SU = Somewhat Unsure	SS = Somewhat Sure	VS = Very Sure
The confidence indicator is intended to convey the visualizer's degree of uncertainty with regard to a particular assumption.

Deposit Scenario
	Metal 1		Metal 2	Metal 3	Metal 4
	Uranium U
Grade:	16.46%	SS
Recovery:	98.7%	VU
Payable:	100.0%	VS
Concentrate Grade:	100.0%	VS
Price:	$89.00 /lb U3O8	SS
Price Type:	Spot
Annual Payable:	26,145,662 lb U3O8
LOM Payable:	380,437,294 lb U3O8
Metal 1 Price Note: The uranium price was abnormally low after Fukushima in 2011 which prompted Germany to abandon nuclear energy and suspended Japanase nuclear power generation. The result was utility de-stockpiling that has run its course. At the same time Kazakhstan ramped up ISL output to become the dominant producer and its capacity expansion potential appears to have plateaued. Meanwhile Chinese reactors are coming on line. U3O8 needs an $80/lb floor for new supply to be viable.

Mining Scenario
Tonnage:	1,062,200	SS	Strip Rate:	0.0	VU
Operating Rate (tpd):	200	SS	Mining Type:	Underground	VS
Mine Life (years):	14.6		Startup:	2030	SU
Tax Treatment:	SLM Straight Line Depreciation	SU	Tax Rate:	42.0%	SS
Tonnage Note: Based on the original resource for McArthur River and the CAD costs outlined in the November 2012 43-101 technical report for McArthur River, which for the 2024 OV Update have been escalated by 25%..
Mining Type Note: Deep highly reactive uranium deposits at the unconformity are mined underground using local freezing to contain water flow and remote controlled equipment.
Tax Rate Note: 15% federal, 12% provincial, and 15% "upper tier "profit royalty".

Cost Scenario
			Currency	USD Cost	Exchange Rate
CapEx:	$2,500,000,000	SU	CAD	$1,855,425,263	1.347
Sustaining Capital:	$875,000,000	SU	CAD	$649,398,842	1.347
Mining Cost ($/t rock):	$4,500.00	SU	CAD	$3,339.77	1.347
Mining Cost ($/t ore):	$4,500.00		CAD	$3,339.77	1.347
Processing Cost ($/t):	$4,000.00	SU	CAD	$2,968.68	1.347
Other Cost ($/t):	$600.00	SU	CAD	$445.30	1.347
Total OpEx ($/t):	$9,100.00		CAD	$6,753.75	1.347
Uranium Concentrate Cost ($/t con):	$925.00		CAD	$686.51	1.347
CapEx Note: Usde CAD $2 billion in 2016, inflated by 25% to $2.5 billion in 2024.
Sustaining Capital Note: Used CAD $700 million in 2016, inflated by 25% to $875 milliom in 2024.
Mining Cost Note: Used CAD $3,623/t in 2016, inflated by 25% in 2024 to $4,500.
Processing Cost Note: Used CAD $3,157/t in 2016, inflated by 25% to $4,000 in 2024.
Other Cost Note: Used CAD $460 in 2016, inflated by 25% to $600 in 2024
Metal 1 Con Cost Note: Used CAD $740/t in 2016, inflated by 25% to $925 in 2024.

Risk Factors - Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate: 8.0%
	Risk Level	Risk Weight	Confidence	Note
Environmental Permitting:	Very Low	0.5	SS	Protocols for permitting underground mines in the Athabasca Basin well established.
Social License:	Low	1.0	SU	Multiple groups need to be dealt with, but familiar with existing mining regime.
Title:	Very Low	0.5	SS
Tax:	Very Low	0.5	SS	Already has 7.25% NSR to province as basic royalty, tiered profit royalty of 10%-15% and 15% federal and 12% provincial income tax.
GeoPolitical:	Very Low	1.0	VS	Saskatchewan ranked very high as mining friendly.
Infrastructure:	Very Low	0.5	SS	Not far from McArthur River.
Technical:	Low	2.5	SU	Ore at unconformity will have to deal with water flow problems as at Cigar Lake, though lots of experience gained so better understanding today.
Management:	Very Low	0.5	VS	Top people ex-Cameco. Diluting partner Cameco can provide input.
Financing:	Low	1.0	SS	Canalaska has substantial backing.

	Very Low	Low	High	Very High
Risk Factor Weight Table
Environmental Permitting:	0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0
Social License:	0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0
Title:	0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0
Tax:	0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0
GeoPolitical:	0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0
Infrastructure:	0.5	1.5	2.5	4.0
Technical:	1.0	2.5	4.0	5.5
Management:	0.5	1.5	3.0	4.0
Financing:	0.5	1.0	1.5	2.0
The risk adjusted discount rate is the sum of the weight of the risk level assigned to each risk factor.

Disclaimer: A visualized outcome is one of many possible outcomes for an exploration project as it moves through the 9 stages of the exploration-development cycle from grassroots to a producing mine with failure as an outcome at any point along the way. The range of possible outcomes for the physical nature of a deposit shrinks after delivery of an initial 43-101 resource estimate. While the nature of the deposit constrains the range of mining scenarios, the cost assumptions will vary as the project moves through the feasibility demonstration stages of the cycle, which affects the economic value of the final outcome. This economic value will also vary according to the prices of the metals targeted for extraction which may change during the years it takes for a project to become a mine. An outcome visualization is thus a compilation of best guess assumptions for the key variables that drive the discounted cash flow model, the basis for assigning an economic value to a mine. An OV is not intended as a prediction, but rather as a framework that allows the incorporation of new information generated by the exploration-development cycle for the project into a valuation model on an ongoing, dynamic basis.