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KMW Blog Aug 27, 2015: A rare example of calling China's problems a correction rather than implosion


Posted: Aug 27, 2015JK: A rare example of calling China's problems a correction rather than implosion
Published: Aug 26, 2015NYT: False Alarm on a Crisis in China
Most of the media discussion has involved hand-wringing about the implosion China's economy is undergoing and the implications for the rest of the global economy. Nicohlas R. Lardy, author of Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China in which he argues that state owned enterprises are not the overwhelmingly dominant force in China's GDP everybody assumes, argues in a New York Times opinion that the tumult in China is just a correction, not a collapse, and that the shift toward a consumption based economy has been underway for several years. Rather than call into question Chinese statistics about 7% GDP growth by pointing out the decline in electric power and cement output growth as evidence of industrial decline, we should recognize that the shift of GDP away from industrial investment will result in lower demand for energy and raw materials. He thus belongs in the camp into which I am leaning that the world is simply adapting to the new reality of a slower growing China that is not going to fuel a return of super-cycle commodity dynamics any time soon.
 
 

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