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Spec Value Rating Overview Updated January 3, 2023
SV Rating: Fair Spec Value - Favorite - as of December 30, 2022: Amarc Resources Ltd was made a Fair Spec Value rated 2023 Favorite at $0.15 on December 30, 2022 based partly on its British Columbia focused copper exploration plays, two of which, Joy and Duke, are funded by majors Freeport McMoran and Boliden who can earn up to 70% by spending $105 million and $90 million respectively. Freeport optioned the Joy copper-gold porphyry project in May 2021 and has spent about $20 million to the end of 2022. The 48,200 ha Joy project adjoins to the north of the Kemess Mine now operated by Centerra Gold. Freeport, which drilled 15,427 m in 2022 for which results were still pending at the start of 2023, is delineating the Pine copper-gold system and testing district wide targets. Boliden optioned the 67,800 ha Duke project in November 2022 and immediately initiated a winter drill program. Duke, located 50 km north of the former Bell and Granisle copper mines in the Babine Lake region, is an emerging copper-molybdenum-silver discovery Amarc made in 2017. Amarc is operator of both projects. The company is headed by CEO Diane Nicolson and Chairman Bob Dickinson who with 29 million shares representing 16% is Amarc's largest shareholder. Amarc has for two decades been focused on grassroots exploration in British Columbia during a period when Northern Dynasty's now beleaguered Pebble copper-gold project in Alaska dominated the attention of the HDI group. Amarc appeared on track for a major emerging discovery in 2014 when it assembled the IKE copper-molybdenum-silver district located in southwestern British Columbia between Taseko's stalled New Prosperity copper-gold project and the Bralorne gold project to the south. IKE, which does not yet have a resource estimate, was first optioned to Thompson Creek in 2015 which dropped out after Centerra Gold acquired Thompson in 2017. In mid 2017 Hudbay optioned both IKE and Joy, but dropped out in early 2019 after spending nearly $10 million when Waterton launched a proxy battle. Amarc, which had a weak treasury supported by loans from Dickinson, spent the next two years bottom-crawling below $0.10 until the Joy farmout in 2021 woke up the company. Market interest strengthened with the Duke farmout because one never knows when a major like Freeport might suddenly lose interest, but it will take at least a year before Boliden is in any danger of losing interest. In May 2022 Amarc also quietly optioned the Hearne Hill project for $1 million in the form of $100,000 annual payments. Hearne Hill is south of Duke and southeast of Pacific Booker's Morrison copper-gold porphyry project which is stalled because of proximity to Morrison Lake. Hearne Hill is inland and hosts a copper breccia pipe system that underwent small scale mining but which Amarc plans to rethink as a bulk tonnage copper system. The main reason, however, for making Amarc a 2023 Favorite is its plan to revisit the Empress area at the northern end of the 100% owned IKE project. The Empress area represents a gold enriched copper replacement system within older volcanics and sediments off-board the northern boundary of the Coast Plutonic Complex. Amarc would also like to do enough drilling of IKE to allow a maiden resource estimate. Working capital as of September 30, 2022 was about $3 million, not enough to mount a major program. But with 199 million shares fully diluted and the last financing done in 2017 there is no market overhang if Bob Dickinson comes through with his threat to emerge from semi-retirement and turn Amarc into the success story that has eluded it for two decades.
Recommendation History
Edition
Date
Price
Recommendation
Gain
BF1998
12/1/1997
$0.62
New BF MP Buy $0.50-$0.75
0%
BF1998
12/11/1998
$0.60
Confirm BF TP Buy $0.50-$0.75
-20%
BF1998
1/5/2000
$0.70
Confirm BF TP Buy $0.50-$0.75
-7%
BF1998
12/30/2005
$0.29
BF Cycle Closeout Sell 100%
-61%
BF2009
12/24/2008
$0.10
New BF MP Buy $0.10-$0.19
-47%
BF2009
12/30/2011
$0.41
BF Technical Closeout Hold 0%
116%
BF2014
12/4/2014
$0.07
New BF Buy below $0.10
-30%
BF2014
12/31/2015
$0.06
BF Technical Closeout 100%
-40%
BF2016
12/31/2015
$0.06
New BF Buy below $0.10
-40%
BF2016
12/13/2018
$0.06
BF Technical Closeout 100%
-45%
SVF2023
12/30/2022
$0.15
Fair Spec Value Favorite
0%
Ranking within Company's Price Range based Group
All TSX-TSXV KRO as of Mar 24, 2023
Group Median
Company
Percentile
Score
Price Range:
$0.10-$0.19
Issued:
72,198,999
186,602,894
18.0%
51.1%
Price Group Total:
261
Working Cap:
$492,159
$4,221,265
84.3%
TSXV KRO as of Mar 24, 2023
Group Median
Company
Percentile
Score
Price Range:
$0.10-$0.19
Issued:
67,700,989
186,602,894
15.4%
50.6%
Price Group Total:
247
Working Cap:
$478,503
$4,221,265
85.8%
Group figures exclude delisted and suspended companies. The higher the company percentile the better, based on the assumptions that the lowest issued shares and highest working capital are best. The score is the average of the percentiles. A percentile is that percentage of a group that a member ranks higher than. Note that issued and WC reflect latest financials.
Ranking Color Code:
Lower than 25%
25% to 50%
50% to 75%
Higher than 75%
Charts & Financing Activity
Most recent 43-101 resource estimate Prior resource estimate PEA PFS FS/BFS/DFS
Private Placement Key
less than $500,000
$1,000,000 - $2,000,000
$5,000,000 - $10,000,000
$20,000,000 - $50,000,000
$500,000 - $1,000,000
$2,000,000 - $5,000,000
$10,000,000 - $20,000,000
over $50,000,000
Private placement financing dates and value ranges are based on transactions reported by the TSXV Monthly Review.
Past Insiders and Reported Shareholders - Current Ownership Status unknown - positions may be pre-rollback
Related Party
Occupation
Related Since
Insider Ended
Director Ended
Capacity
Ownership
Rene G. Carrier
Administrator
9/29/2008
11/22/2018
11/22/2018
Director
400,000
David J. Copeland
Engineer
9/1/1995
9/17/2015
9/17/2015
Director
1,249,500
Colin Gibson
Broker
1/24/2011
Placee
125,000
Harold Hodgson
Broker
1/24/2011
Placee
312,500
Greg Johnson
Broker
1/24/2011
Placee
31,250
Jeffrey R. Mason
Accountant
9/1/1995
11/22/2018
11/22/2018
Director
2,878,500
Peter Ross
Broker
1/24/2011
Placee
62,500
John Rybinski
Broker
1/24/2011
Placee
312,500
Philip Smith
Broker
1/24/2011
Placee
62,500
Sun Valley Gold LLC
Institution
3/16/2012
Insider
14,615,384
Ronald W. Thiessen
Accountant
9/1/1995
11/21/2019
11/21/2019
CEO
3,109,992
John Welch
Broker
1/24/2011
Placee
12,500
Share positions of current insiders based on last AGM circular, ownership % based on current Issued. Share positions of past insiders and shareholders have not been adjusted for rollbacks or splits.
Active Index Memberships
Membership Start Date:
December 30, 2022
Start Price:
$0.15
KRO Favorites 2023: Features companies designated 2023 KRO Favorites, based on closing price December 30, 2022.
A Spec Value Hunter table allows speculators to identify which projects offer poor, fair or good speculative value according to the rational speculation model. The speculative value depends on the project stage, the project's implied value as calculated by the company's fully diluted, stock price and net project interest, and the dream target deemed appropriate for the project. A dream target is what a project would be worth in discounted cash flow terms once in production.
Poor Speculative Value -
Fair Speculative Value -
Good Speculative Value -
Note: narrow arrows indicate IPV is outside the fair value channel but within 25% of the fair value limits
Color Key for Target Outcome Achievability Ranges in millions ranked from most to least achievable
below $25
Should be Private: Artisanal, Placer, Mom & Pop Shop
$25-$50
Tiny Scale: underground mine or quarry - not worth the bother
$50-$100
Small Scale: junior needs to self-develop
$100-$250
Buyout Target: by Lower Tier Producers
$250-$500
Buyout Target: by Mid-Tier Producers
$500-$1,000
Ideal Target for Junior: Buckhorn, Sleeper
$1,000-$2,000
Almost World Class: Ekati, Red Chris, Brucejack, Juanicipio, Stibnite
$2,000-$5,000
World Class: Eskay Creek, Hemlo, Hermosa-Taylor, Oyu Tolgoi, LaRonde, McArthur
$5,000-$10,000
Giants: Escondida, Sullivan, Carlin Trend, Kidd Creek, Orapa, Kamoa-Kakula
above $10,000
Off the Scale District: Wits 1.0, Araxa, Sudbury Basin, Bayan Obo
The target outcome range required for the current implied project value to represent fair speculative value is based on the upper and lower certainty limits associated with the project stage. The color coding is based on the target outcome using the mid-point of the certainty range.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: No Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: December 2013 option to acquire 80% from Oxford Resources Inc. Amarc can acquire 80% by making cash payments totaling $125,000, issuing 300,000 shares, and by incurring approximately $1,860,000 in exploration expenditures on or before November 30, 2015. In July 2014 the Ike Agreement was amended and Oxford assigned all of its interest property, and the underlying option agreement with respect to the Ike property, to Amarc and
converted its ownership interest in the Ike property to a 1% Net Smelter Return (“NSR”) royalty in
consideration of a $40,000 cash payment. The 1% NSR royalty can be purchased at any time for
$2,000,000 less any amount of royalty already paid. Underying vendor holds a 2% NSR. 1% can be bought for $2 million any time before commercial production and the other 1% can be bought for $2 million before Nov 30, 2015. On Sept 3, 2015 optioned up to 50% to Thompson Creek Metals which dropped the option after earning 10% which it agreed to convert into a 1% NSR capped at $5 million. Agreement July 18, 2017 whereby Hudbay Minerals Inc can earn an initial 49% ownership interest in the IKE Project under a Stage 1 Farm-in Right by funding $25 million of expenditures before December 31, 2020, of which $3.3 million is committed for 2017. Provided its Stage 1 Farm-in Right is exercised, Hudbay can, pursuant to a Stage 2 Farm-in Right, elect to earn an additional 1% interest in the Project (for a total 50% interest), by funding $15 million of expenditures (for a total of $40 million), also before December 31, 2020. Stage 1 and Stage 2 Farm-in expenditures can be accelerated by Hudbay at its discretion. Amarc will be the operator during the Stage 1 and Stage 2 periods. A Joint Venture ("JV") will be formed when Hudbay has acquired a 49% interest in the Project. Provided that Hudbay has exercised its Stage 2 Farm-in Right and acquired a 50% interest in the IKE Project, it can then elect to go forward via one of two paths. First, Hudbay can replace Amarc as operator of the JV after it funds all project expenditures and completes a Feasibility Study for the IKE Project by December 31, 2025. Having gained operatorship, Hudbay can then choose to either go forward with Amarc in a 50/50 participating JV, or can instead elect to continue with its Farm-in (the 'Stage 3 Farm-in Right") to acquire an additional 10% interest in the IKE Project (for a total 60% interest). To exercise its Stage 3 Farm-in Right, Hudbay must fund all expenditures required to submit a British Columbia Environment Assessment ("EA") application for the IKE Project and, if applicable, a Canadian EA application, with the application(s) being accepted for review by December 31, 2026. In addition, Hudbay must also continue to fund all project expenditures until the necessary EA Certificate(s) are received. Following receipt of the EA Certificate(s), all IKE Project expenditures going forward will be shared by Hudbay and Amarc on a pro rata basis (Hudbay 60%/Amarc 40%) under the JV. As a second alternative path Hudbay can elect, after exercising its Stage 2 Farm-in Right, to proceed directly to the Stage 3 Farm-in Right, so immediately becoming the operator, and acquire a further 10% interest (for a total 60% interest) by, as above, submitting and having accepted for review a British Columbia EA application and, if applicable, a Canadian EA application, by December 31, 2026. Again in this instance, Hudbay must also fund all project expenditures until receipt of the necessary EA Certificate(s). As with the first path, following receipt of the EA Certificate(s), all IKE Project expenditures going forward will be shared by Hudbay and Amarc on a pro rata basis (Hudbay 60%/Amarc 40%) under the JV. HudBay dropped option on Jan 21, 2019.
Initial Amarc drill program begins, with nine holes planned for 5,400m, designed as an initial test to confirm if Ike is an important porphyry system, deserving of more detailed exploration work going forward.
Target Testing
2014 Q4 Late November
2014 Q4 Late November
Reported results from 9 hole 5,400 m drill program started in mid September 2014 that confirm the presence of a potentially economic Cu-Mo-Ag porphyry system.
Net Interest: 30% TC Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement Nov 22, 2022 where Boliden can earn up to 70% by spending CAD $30 million within 4 years to earn 60%, of which $5 million is committed in late 2022 and early 2023, after which Boliden can elect to earn 70% by spending $60 million over 6 years with $10 million minimum per year. Amarc will operate until Bolden vests for 60% at which point Bolden can elect to become operator.
Net Interest: 30% TC Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 0.00%
Ownership Terms: Part by staking, other by option from Cascadero and Gold Fields where Cascadero gets $1 million cash in stages by Oct 31, 2018 and $950,000 in Amarc stock by Oct 31, 2018 for its 49%. Amarc can over 4 years acquire Gold Fields' 51% by creating a new company in which Gold Fields will receive 15% on a fully diluted basis. Option Aug 22, 2017 whereby HudBay can earn 49% by spending $15 million by Dec 31, 2020, of which $1.9 million was committed for 2017. On vesting for 49%, Hudbay can earn 50% by spending an extra $5 million, also by Dec 31, 2020. Amarc operates during these stages. If Hydbay vests for 50%, it can elect to earn 60% by funding all costs needed to deliver an EA by Dec 31, 2026. HudBay dropped option on Jan 21, 2019. On Dec 10, 2019 Amarc acquired Gold Fiels' 51% by issuing 5 million shares and a future 2 million contingent on unspecified expenditures. Gold Fields retains a 2.5% NPI on 86% of property and 1% NSR on the rest. The NPI can be reduced to 1.25% for $2.5 million in cash or stock. Agreement May 12, 2021 to option 70% to Freeport McMoran for $35 million exploration over 5 years to earn 60%, after which it can earn 70% by spending $75 million over 5 years.
Net Interest: 100% WI Vested: Yes Uncapped NSR/GOR: 2.00%
Ownership Terms: Agreement May 16, 2022 to acquire 100% for $1 million payable $100,000 up front and $100,000 annually. Vendor retains a 2% NSR of which 1.5% is capped at 0.5%.
Most recent 43-101 resource estimate 
Prior resource estimate 
PEA 
PFS 
FS/BFS/DFS
Flagship Play
Secondary Plays
Other Plays
